What can the Opposition do to be a Formidable Force in 2029?
Has the BJP ever been as weak as it has been since 2014? They are not electorally weak, but they have failed due to policy issues and incompetence. The rise of the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) is evidence that there is some form of disappointment with the government, yet the opposition is unable to capitalise on that. CJP itself is a case study for another day.
We have, till now, discussed a lot about the successes of the BJP, its invincibility, and also in depth about Congress' weakness. Currently, the opposition is in a weak state despite tons of issues and problems happening around us. The INDIA alliance formed in 2023 has hundreds of flaws and infighting going on.
General elections, especially in India, are not won overnight; they need years of extensive work and strong ideological rooting. We are three years away from the next general election, which may/may not be after the delimitation and may possibly also be a simultaneous election (One Nation One Election).
In this article, we will focus on where our opposition can focus ahead of 2029 to taste electoral success.
Why Opposition?
It is very important for any democracy to embrace both the ruling and opposition equally, especially in a parliamentary democracy where Parliament is supreme. The opposition is also part of the legislature. They are an integral representative of society.
A strong opposition is needed for a healthy democracy, as they keep a check on the government, but also they provide diverse opinions, represent public issues, and also prevent the executive from being extremely autocratic and dictatorial. They help in bridging the gap between reality and what it should be.
BJP-led NDA has been in power for 12 years uninterrupted, and in its 13th year, making it quite a long time for the same government in power. This is enough for some amount of anti-incumbency to come in. One government
Suggestions for the Opposition
The opposition needs a total revamp both in terms of party and organisation as well as change how it is perceived by the public and the voters. The former is a long game and needs time, while the latter can be done immediately, laying down a strong foundation. Hence, we will be focusing on the latter part.
Indian Electoral Politics has changed a lot. They are now held like a Presidential Model and in a more digitalised manner. Voters have become more demanding yet prefer digital ways of communication. Here are the key ways in which the Opposition can mend its ways and be a formidable force in the upcoming 2029 elections.
Be active in Parliament- The Opposition cannot be only visible during the elections; rather, it should stay active throughout the elections. How many opposition MPs are popular nationwide? Perhaps only Rahul Gandhi, Shashi Tharoor and Akhilesh Yadav. Parliament is the easiest way by which the opposition can grab some attention. Engaging in constructive discussions, holding the government accountable, focusing on policy-centric debates and discussions. INDIA alliance has 200+ MPs, and what better way to market them? Understand that people elect MPs and MLAs for governance and nothing else.
Revive the INDIA Alliance and decide who is your real opponent- Let us be clear, the idea of an all-opposition alliance is on a ventilator with no signs of revival at hand. Despite a big surge in 2024, the INDIA alliance has only gotten weaker. The TMC is unhappy with how much Congress attacked it in West Bengal. The AAP is unhappy as it was Congress who raised the liquor scam case first, leading to a big loss in Delhi. DMK is unhappy with Congress going away from its Secular Progressive Alliance in Tamil Nadu. All the non-Congress leaders have supported CPI-M on the ED raids at Pinarayi Vijay's home. The Left and Congress are at loggerheads in Kerala; Rahul Gandhi has called Pinarayi Vijayan an Adani agent and Modi in Mundu. The SP is not happy with how Congress is treating regional players. Congress is not happy with regional parties asking for more space. It is unable to hold together everyone despite being the larger player in the alliance. Congress needs to cede space to regional players wherever needed, even when it is the number 1 player in most of the states. There are still tons of opposition parties who are not part of the INDIA alliance, such as YSRCP, BRS, BJD, etc., which could be incorporated here.
Decide who is your real opponent- The INDIA alliance needs to decide about who the opponent is. Is it BJP or Congress or regional parties, or is it someone else? INDIA alliance has spent more time attacking each other to destroy the alliance than attacking the BJP. The alliance should restrict unwanted remarks and statements and decide how to move forward. Hence, it is important to take on the BJP if they feel that is what is in their best interest. There needs to be strong coalition management which will keep the alliance going without pressure from a few big parties
Counter BJP as the urban party of India- We have discussed multiple articles before that today BJP is the predominant urban party in the country. The latest on the list is Kolkata, which saw a massive saffron surge this election. BJP has, for twenty years, in a two-fold manner- championed by becoming the Baniya Party, taking the confidence of the business community, hence the middle-class. Secondly, it's through the Hindutva appeal. Let us keep the second one aside. Opposition should be the urban party. Start by speaking on issues that appeal to Urban voters irrespective of their party choices, religion, caste, etc., such as financial problems, tax issues, and unemployment, especially youth unemployment. Also start speaking on civic issues, notably roads, bridges, drinking water, etc. There is also a new issue that has come as a blessing in disguise- ethanol blending, which affects the urban middle-class Indians the most.
Focus on the Youth- The largest voting block of India is the youth. They are thirsty for good education and employment opportunities. With Artificial Intelligence just above our heads, they are expecting help from the government. This is the biggest opportunity right now, which can put the government in a tight situation. After the NEET exam leak and re-exam, the Class 12 results, marking issues, On-Screen-Marking, revaluation, etc., have made massive headlines and controversies. Soon after that, there was the CUET-UG examination controversy that saw severe logistical and technical disruptions, which delayed exams and forced thousands of candidates to either wait in confusion or miss their tests entirely. All of this placed a massive strain on the government as such. Then comes a massive question raised on government exams in most of the states. CJP has made this a big issue and is planning a protest rally in Delhi, demanding the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. Youth are more mobile and open to exploring electoral options than being very rigid on their voting stance. Let us not forget that it was the youth vote that was significant in bringing the Modi government to power in 2014. Hence, this is a golden chance for the opposition to attract youth back to their fold.
Reclaim the narrative on development and create a Model State/City - The biggest agenda of the BJP is development, big infrastructure, Vande Bharat trains, big technologies. Strongman leaders always try to portray themselves as the masters of development in the form of big projects, infrastructure, bridges, railways, etc. This is due to two reasons. Firstly, it provides visibility to people of the government's activities; yes, something is happening. Secondly, catering to the middle class and elites. The middle class of any society is the cause of political stability. It is generally when the middle class is unhappy that governments fall and change. Keeping them happy is key to political stability. PM Modi is seen as that big development guy, and so are various BJP leaders, also trying to emulate the same image at the state level. You can say that they are trying to show they are strong by constructing big and massive projects, not as authoritarian leaders. Keeping the elites and middle-class happy and contented is one of the ways to secure your politics.
The so-called secular parties had lost the narrative over development for a very long time. Everyone thought that just being secular or anti-BJP was sufficient for them. But through development as one of their key narratives, they were able to overcome that drawback. This is where the opposition needs to go the extra mile to convince the urban voters who may be less mobile in their political opinions. But definitely it can help reach out to apolitical voters who vote basically for development only, not care too much about ideology.
Today, the BJP controls a lot of big cities in India besides some in the south. When BJP won in 2014, a key reason for a strong urban surge was the acceptance of the Gujarat Model for the rest of the country. Also, it was very significant that the Gujarat model was connected to Modi as well since he was the CM of the state. Hence, it is very important that the Opposition develops a model state or at least a model city which they could sell to the voters of the country. Given that it's Congress and allies who control most states and cities now, let it be Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala or, for that matter, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, or Trivandrum.
Work more in Hindi Heartland- The popular narrative still remains that if you want to rule India, you should dominate North India, which is tagged as the Hindi heartland. Opposition is strong in Southern India and Eastern India but very weak in North, Central, and Western India. Now, with the loss of Bihar and Bengal, the Opposition is hardly ruling any state in the rest of India. Congress, the party that is default opposition against the BJP in North Indian states, is extremely weak. It was even unable to win two very much winnable states, Haryana and Chhattisgarh. The opposition needs to win at least some seats to capture power in Delhi. Understand that UP, MP, Rajasthan and Bihar combined hold 170 seats.
A full-time opposition leader- The recent debate in the country has been: where has the opposition leader vanished? Is he on another foreign tour? This has been a big black mark on Rahul Gandhi that he is not always a full-time politician. In 2024, he came to the parliamentary position for the first time with a lot of hopes. This was also his first formal position of responsibility. There is no doubt Rahul Gandhi has the capability to be a good opposition leader or that he should not take a vacation. But if we see that it affects the ability of the opposition to function, then we should take it as a serious issue. For example, Rahul Gandhi's absence has forced Congress to scale down the protests on educational issues. This leads to a bigger issue and a question to ponder. Don't we need a strongly committed full-time opposition leader? In the absence of the Opposition leader who takes charge?
Long-term strategy- It is ok that you are preparing for 2029, but it is important to prepare for things which are beyond elections also. This is where protests and what CJP is doing are important. Even issues such as government exams become very important. Elections are not just for Lok Sabha but also for state assembly elections. UP is going to the polls in 2027, so is Gujarat and Himachal. We will have semifinal elections to Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP in 2028. Hence, we have a lot of elections beyond just Lok Sabha. Let us not forget that there is the Rajya Sabha, which is a council of states, and it gets filled through state assemblies. The main politics of India is just state politics; the national politics is just a reflection of state politics. We also need opposition to look at 2034 and 2039 too.
Get the boots on the ground, not just stay on Twitter - CJP crossed 25M on Instagram, but we know it doesn't mean a lot. It is not a real party. Similar is the situation of the opposition on social media; it doesn't matter. Indian elections are fought on the ground, not on social media. We have parties and leaders who tweet but not enough people on the street. What about BJP? It has built both and works in a complementary manner. We also should learn the lesson of Bharat Jodo Yatra and how much it has changed the way Rahul Gandhi and Congress have been perceived by the public. Formulating a strong cadre is important to fight elections. RJD, SP, DMK, CPIM are cadre parties, but the pan-national party Congress is not. This is where all the opposition parties should work together to balance with the BJP's cadre.
Conculsion
Having a good opposition is key to the success of any democracy. Only if the opposition has a fair chance to be the ruling party can we see that a country is a democracy. It is easy to say than to get things done. They are just collapsing in front of our eyes. We need to demand accountability from our government, and we need accountability from our opposition so that they will demand that accountability from the ruling side.
This article is a compilation of ten simple suggestions that opposition can do to have decent performance in the next election. It can be seen as strong advice or be rejected as an impossible wishlist. But in the best interest of the country, we have a great ruling as well as good opposition. But if not told at least now, it will be too late, even if opposition parties realise that the elections are here already and we end up with the same outcome every election. It is not that we have anything against the BJP, but we do not want to just end up with only one party.
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