Let's have a dive deep into understanding and decoding the Local Body Election Results in Kerala, which made the political title this week. Election season in Kerala, which has been on for the past month, was over with the declaration of results on 13th December.
Newscapsule of the month.
Results at a glance
The United Democratic Front (UDF), the principal opposition in Kerala, has gained the edge by winning more than half the local bodies. The ruling LDF has come second, losing most of what it had, and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came in third, yet by massively improving its tally.
The LSG elections were done for the following Institutions-
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| Credits- Wikipedia |
The Six Municipal Corporations-
- Trivandrum
- Kollam
- Kochi
- Thrissur
- Kozhikode
- Kannur
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The 86 Municipalities-
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| Credits- Wikipedia |
Election results
Tally
Voting Percentage
| UDF- 40.7% | LDF- 35.7% | NDA- 16.0% |
Detailed Analysis
This was one of the most politically charged local self-government (LSG) elections, with the state elections of 2026 at the doorstep. Generally, LSG elections stand for local issues and local arithmetic. But breaking all kinds of conventions this time. At the same time, we see totally interesting and unique elections this time, because no one could ever predict the results, as there was a strong, tight race, which too a three-cornered fight in many areas. It will not be wrong if we say that this election has shaken all their fronts at the same time in different ways.
As said before, this election is considered to be the semifinal for the 2026 assembly election race. The front that wins the largest number of Grama Panchayats captures the Legislative Assembly, and that has been the trendsetter for the past many years. As per the current situation, we can clearly say that UDF is set to make a big comeback in 2026. But we can surely see the bipolar contest between UDF and LDF, with more than two dozen seats turning tripartite with the BJP. The next four months will set the stage for the next election in 2026.
Interesting contests, victors, and flips
This election has consolidated the BJP's presence in Kerala. Compared to last time, the BJP is no longer a bargaining entity but a strong force to be reckoned with. This has been the biggest takeaway from the election right now.
The most intensive and full-power tri-cornered fight was in the Trivandrum Municipal Corporation, which is the largest and most important, and prestigious one. Since 2015, the BJP has worked hard to make inroads and come in the second place. In 2020, it has further worked even harder, as if it would finally capture the corporation, but it took five more years in 2025 to finally capture it. The ruling LDF, which had 51 out of 100 seats last time, has fallen to hardly 30 seats this time. Many blame the current Corporation led by Ms. Arya Rajendran for the loss. BJP can now rule with a considerable number of 50 seats. Congress, which was largely absent last time, has recovered to 20 seats. UDF Mayor Candidate K Sabarinath performed extremely well by wresting the Kowadiar Ward. There is no change in rural and suburban Trivandrum as it stood with the LDF. These are the vote share numbers of the Trivandrum Corporation of LDF, UDF, and BJP. Despite winning, the BJP has fewer votes than the LDF. It uses this figure to attack the UDF-BJP duo. But organised voting for the BJP and UDF vote transfer requires more proof. All the sides had tried their best by putting out their best candidates and even statewide figures.
In Kochi corporation, the second largest and the one that rules the majority of Kochi City, has seen a resurgence of UDF and the fall of the LDF minority. In addition to that BJP has secured 5 seats, which is an improvement from last time's 2 seats. Contrary to popular notion, the Cochin corporation has always been a stronghold of the LDF except for a short span of 2010-20. Currently, the city is continuing the trend of being a Congress stronghold. Despite decent performance by LDF in the city governance, perhaps the city voted politically statewide rather. It is the largest city in India that Congress still controls and also at all levels. At a time when Congress is fully undergoing an urban decline,the only big urban city that Congress can still say it controls the politics is Kochi.
In a big upset for LDF, its strongest fortress, Kollam Corporation, has voted for UDF. LDF has been ruling the corporation ever since its formation in 2000. This cannot be considered merely as a local upset but rather a statewide anti-incumbency factor. Kollam is also an area with strong CPI votes. BJP has been able to win a lot of the LDF strongholds. In the rural and suburban Kollam, there has been a strong backlash against the LDF. Karunagapally shifted to UDF, while the rest stayed with LDF.
Thrissur corporation last time saw a narrow contest, where the tally of LDF and UDF just varied by 1. Currently, the UDF has bounced back with a big majority in its traditional stronghold, where CPIM had made massive inroads last decade. Thrissur is also the place where CPI has a committed vote share. BJP tried to repeat its Suresh Gopi magic, but its performance wasn't that great as expected.
Despite strong backlash, LDF still managed to hold on to its stronghold of Kozhikode Corporation. But the surprise was the BJP reaching double digits there, even in city centres such as Civil Station and Mavoor Road.
Kannur, which is a left bastion, has once again voted for the UDF this time. In 2015, it had voted for LDF for a small margin, but was wrested by UDF in 2020.
In Alapuzha district, once the stronghold of LDF, all the municipalities besides Cherthala have gone to UDF. In Mavelikkara, the BJP is the second-largest party with double the tally of LDF.
Pandalam, which was the centre of Sabarimala protests and now the recent issues, houses the Pandalam royal family. It went into the hands of the Saffron Party, BJP, last time, but has now gone towards LDF as it wrested it from BJP.
In Todupuzha, which went leftwards, has seen a strong comeback by the UDF.
In all four municipalities in Trivandrum district- Attingal, Nedumangad, Varkala, and Neyyattinkara, it is a clean sweep by LDF.
In the Ernakulam district, the UDF has wrested 11 out of 12 municipalities. Even rural Ernakulam had a strong UDF wave.
Pala Municipality will see the flip from LDF back to UDF. It is the home turf of KM Mani's family and has always voted heavily for the UDF. In 2019, LDF had also defeated UDF in the Assembly election. Similarly, Changnassery municipality will also see a return of the UDF. Likely that KCM will return to UDF.
Vaikkom Municipality is considered to be an LDF bastion in Kottayam district, just like the last time saw a sudden surge of UDF, and the municipality will be ruled by UDF again.
In Thrikkakara Municipality, the BJP saw its seats getting wiped off.
BJP has performed very well in Aluva to be the largest opposition, getting 4 seats this time. BJP is set to improve its tally in the future as well. In Angamaly BJP won two seats.
From the BJP being the principal opposition, it became the single largest party in the Thripunithra Municipality.
Kodungaloor Municipality saw the BJP coming in close with the LDF yet again to be the main opposition party. Irinjalakuda municipality has flipped to UDF from LDF. But in Thrissur, there still exists LDF dominance in rural areas.
Palakkad Municipality, which had gone into the hands of the BJP, has retained its control but with a slimmer mandate and no majority. There was a massive setback for LDF in various municipalities of Palakkad.
UDF had once again flipped back its stronghold of Nilambur Municipality, which is considered to be its stronghold. Ponanni Municipality is the only stronghold LDF that could hold onto. In the largest municipality, Perinthalmanna, the LDF ruled undisputedly; the UDF won for the first time.
Vadakara municipality celebrated the massive victory of the LDF.
LDF won 29 out of 29 seats in Anthoor Municipality.
Kottayam District has seen a strong return of UDF despite Puthupally panchayat, the residence of Oommen Chandy, former CM, who went in for LDF for the first time in 25 years since it lost last time.
Twenty-Twenty has held onto Kizhakambalam, which is its home turf, but lost six seats. In Aikaranadu Grama Panchayat, it won all six seats. In Thiruvaniyoor, it secured 9 of 18 wards. Although it lost the Kunathunadu Block Panchayat seat.
Analysis
LDF, which has had a pan-Kerala presence, is now losing its ground. Anti-incumbency is real & cannot be denied. LDF has constantly tried to deny it, but that hasn't been helping it overcome that challenge. The recent controversies, dictatorial tendencies of the current government, Sabarimala, inflation, etc., have created strong anger against the current state government. No welfare or development can offset that. LDF losing corporations and municipalities was not surprising. The urban Kerala has strong anti-Left and anti CPI-M/CPI sentiments, along with a strong rightward/conservative shift. Even party strongholds such as Alappuzha, Kannur, Trivandrum, Kollam, Kasargod, and Palakkad etc. have seen a strong erosion of traditional votes. In swing areas- Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Thrissur and Kottayam, they have slowly swung back to UDF.
UDF has been the biggest beneficiary of the undeniable anti-incumbency wave. UDF is seeing an excellent tally for the local elections, which has always been a strong CPIM turf. The votes that seemed to have slipped to LDF in 2020 and 2021 are slowly coming back. Getting back the Kochi corporation is the best news for the UDF. Opening accounts in parts of Kannur and winning Kollam for the first time was a good sign for UDF.
UDF always had an edge in urban and suburban areas. When the entire state went with LDF in 2020, it was neck-and-neck in municipalities (43-41). UDF has always had the upper hand here. They are suburban areas adjoining big cities. Ernakulam has 13, the highest, all of them besides Thripunithura and Thrikkakara are UDF strongholds. Urban areas are slowly shifting away from LDF; the biggest beneficiary is UDF, but also BJP.
If there's one party that has exponentially grown in the state, it's the BJP. In fifteen years, it has recorded growth that has always had a UDF-LDF duopoly. In 2011, it had only 6% vote. In 2014, an unimaginable event happened- the Modi factor added a set of non-ideological voters that kept the party alive. The money factor also came in along with that. In 2016, it got a record 11% and first MLA, and now there was no looking back. In 2021, it crossed 14% as well. Earlier BJP didn't contest that many seats and the BJP wasn't in a winning position, but now it has that potential where the BJP voters actually have the choice to make a difference. In 2024, the BJP reached 20%, which was a new record.
BJP has had safe havens in many places, especially where upper-caste Hindus are high in numbers, like parts of Trivandrum, Kochi, Alappuzha, Palakkad, Kozhikode, and Kasargod. Despite losing Pandalam municipality and losing majority in Palakkad, the BJP is getting the biggest gift- Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. Nothing else counts. BJP has also made surprise gains in the Thripunithura municipality, an important suburb of Kochi. BJP is also the second largest party in Aluva and Kodungaloor municipality. BJP was unable to make gains in Thrissur or anywhere else as they expected to. In a state where LDF will rule for the next 4 months and possibly UDF rule since 2026 onwards, BJP will rule the Capital. It's still yet to be clear who benefits/loses when the BJP grows in Kerala.
If there's one district where the BJP has more support in rural areas than in urban which one is it? The answer is Kasaragod. Politically, it can be divided into North (Manjeshwar and Kasaragod), a stronghold of UDF, and South (Trikaripur, Uduma, Kanhangad), a stronghold of LDF. This is where the BJP is strengthening, mainly in rural areas mainly among linguistic minorities- Kannada, Tulu, and Konkani speakers. BJP here has a district panchayat division as well as ruling Madhur Panchayat for 45 years. BJP is also the chief opposition party in the Kasaragod municipality.
The decline of apolitical forces was a real thing. Twenty-Twenty, being the primary apolitical organisation, swept several panchayats in and around Kizhakkamabalam wasn't that good this time. Unlike last time when the dampened UDF was in urban areas, this time it was no more there. Copying it, several other political organisations have also propped up like V4Kochi, TVM, Janamunnetam, etc., which are mainly rivalling the UDF-LDF duo, but to the best part, they were totally absent this time.
Number game
There was a strong dip in vote share, especially in South Kerala. Many thought it was pro-incumbency but it was clear that it was not. Even if this is an LSG election, a lot of the factors were local, but also a statewide election where state issues were talked about more. The assembly elections, which are set to come within five months, are a big boost for the UDF and the BJP. But the game is far from over; LDF is still fairly a big player. It needs a big makeover for the same. BJP expects to win at least seats, but at the present level, it can only succeed in 2-3 maximum. It needs to work more both at the ground level and also at the state level, like bringing visionaries and strong faces.
Conclusion
Unlike previous years, where turnout was unexpectedly high.
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| Credits- Onamanorama |
LDF has taken a big hit with eroding fortresses. UDF has been winning across demographics and almost all regions in Kerala. LDF has to improve a lot by learning from the lessons of this loss. BJP-led NDA has made strong gains in urban and suburban Kerala. Yet it still needs consolidated votes and not just isolated votes to make gains. The winning of independents and apolitical organisations rivals the traditional political thoughts, ideology, and the system itself. But compared to last time, apolitical entities haven't been able to make a massive dent as they expected, putting the spotlight back on the current political parties. We hope that whoever gets elected this time will fulfil the promises they made, irrespective of the politics and demographic conditions at hand. The first decision or action everyone has to take is to clean the posters in and around the town. This is a big problem across the breadth and length of Kerala.
Reach out in comments! for your opinions. Tell who won in your area.
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