2022 started with a bang as a new year. It is a continuation, especially in political terms. Even this pandemic getting worse is a sign of continuation. Political events will continue despite in 2022 as hot as ever amidst this pandemic. Now we will look into some political events which are about to happen this year and also analyse their impact in the long term.
Pandemic
We might think that end of the pandemic is here, but it's far too early to say that. Ever since the omicron variant was first seen, the world has been reporting a record number of cases every day. The only good news is that more people are immunised through either vaccine or by natural infection. Thus people can fight the disease much better.
What is political here? Different countries are going to see elections, these countries are going to see how respective governments have battled and handled the pandemic. People's anger, frustration and mood get converted to votes. We saw this in 2020, 2021 and the same we will see in 2022 as well. The only difference is it would be after vaccine distribution and we have more idea of the disease than before.
For how much time Omicron would persist will determine how domestic and international politics amidst pandemic will shape up.
India
The world's largest democracy will see a very important set of elections in 2022 which will set the larger political game for 2024 which will be the year that the general elections will be held and the new government will take charge. Thus all the smaller state elections will ultimately set the path.
Kerala
The state of Kerala will not see any election for now but there is a big political and social debate that is happening right now on K-Rail or the Silverline Project connecting the two ends of a state through a semi-high speed rail network.
This project has faced both support and backlash. The govt which earlier rejected such ideas in the past, now is in favour of it while the opposition is entirely questioning and standing against the project. The most controversial aspect of this project is the environmental and ecological concerns it raises at the same time economic burden and people's land.
Where is the politics? The regions covered by the project passes mainly through rural areas or specifically away from largely populated areas. Rural and semi-urban areas are the strongholds of the ruling LDF alliance. Most of the locals who are raising flags against the project are obviously standing beside the govt. on various other issues. So, there is resentment within LDF and its supporters.
Another valid argument is regarding the expenditure of this project which the govt. plans to spend is by borrowing. Thus growing debt following the economic viability of the project stands as the main concern. Also, the entire network is to be built using pillars over the ground which is harder to build and implement. Thus a lot of people will lose their homes and land.
The project is yet to get full clearance from all agencies and also from the central govt. so, there will also be procedural delays. The politics of the state will be based on how far the govt. is ready to go ahead with the project or else govt. takes a step back. This will decide LDFs support in rural areas which will be affected by the project. This is the political question in the state.
Uttar Pradesh(UP)
This is India's most populated state and has a population comparable with Pakistan. It is the most politically rich state of India and the gateway to Lok Sabha. BJP, the ruling party at both centre and the state understands the importance of it. Winning the state is the most important part of the entire 2022 elections.
UP is also the centre of a lot of India's politics especially post 2014, India's eyes are on UP. Issues like Law and Order, Ayodhya, Ganga, Varanasi, etc. have always kept the state in the limelight. Its CM Yogi Adithyanath is extremely popular and he can be a strong contender for PM post from BJP.
So, UP elections will this time answer two questions. Who will win 2024?and Who will succced PM Modi?
Punjab
Not a big state in terms of political capital and is neither important to win it to win in the Lok Sabha but this state is one of the handfuls of states which are not influenced by BJP. This is one of the three states the Congress party is ruling without any alliance.
Post farmer's agitation and various big and small issues, Punjab is seeing a tri-cornered fight between Congress, AAP and SAD. BJP has been in alliance with SAD for a long time. But now BJP is in alliance with ex-CM Capt. Amarinder Singh.
If Congress retains the state, then it is the onset of the recovery of the party ahead of 2024. Else if the AAP wins, then it will embolden a non-Congress front and also give AAP a new base outside Delhi.
Manipur
Traditionally favourable to the Congress, but since the last election BJP has taken over the state despite running low on numbers. With lot of local issues and also the issue of CAA which happened two years back, Manipur can see a heated fight between BJP and Congress, with an edge to BJP.
Goa
A state with a lot of stakes equally for both BJP and Congress as well a lot of regional and smaller parties. Congress despite being the largest party couldn't secure power. Now, the state has seen a lot of defections and all. Now, the smallest state of India has more importance as it will decide the future of Indian Politics and the fate of political parties.
Gujarat
PM Modi's home state is prestigious for BJP and it has been winning the state for a long time. Also, Gujarat Congress has lost its important leader, Ahmed Patel which will hit it hard. At the same time the main problem for parties is to secure enough votes to win as this is a bipolar contest. AAP is also trying to enter Gujarat.
Uttarakhand
BJP is facing massive anti-incumbency. They changed CM three times. So BJP may not repeat the results like last time. Congress and BJP are neck to neck in the state.
Presidential Election
Unlike the US, President in India is not selected by the people but by the elected representatives. This year President Ram Nath Kovind's term is coming to an end. Since there has been changes in states compared to 2017, we can see that state elections are more crucial than ever. These state assemblies are also important in deciding several Rajya Sabha seats. This makes elections more complicated. If BJP wins most of these states, then BJP can get comfortable victory in the Presidential election else it is going to be very difficult for it. This election will be held in the second half of the year.
France
Emanuel Macron will face the challenge for the second term. The main contenders for the election comes from the conservative-far right, Le Pen and Eric Zemmour. Macron even though started with lower approval ratings, has improved a lot during the pandemic period. His hope for victory lies in the spliting of far-right and conservative votes.
French elections happen in two rounds. This year elections will be held in the month of April. It is likely that Macron will get tenure.
USA
Two years after the Presidential election, the most-watched out elections are the mid-terms. It is said that mid-terms are the best test of the President's initial years and also it is generally the opposition party that performs very very well.
What happens in the Mid term election? US House of Representatives and Senate seats are up for elections. Along with that, there will be a few governor races. As of now, President Joe Biden's popularity has been plummenting. Hence the edge now is favouring Republicans. Along with that with Voter restriction laws and also redistricting tend to favour Republicans.
With Senate 50-50 creating deadlock for Joe Biden whether Republicans triumph and create a roadblock for Biden's policies is something we should watch for. Else if Democrats continue to hold back the senate then there is some relief for Biden. House of Representatives margin is so thin that Republicans have some hope of taking it back.
UK
With four successive waves of COVID-19, the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson who had a massive victory has seen its popularity plummeting. With a lot of domestic issues, the party is weak and even lost a couple of elections in the country. Labour Party the principal opposition is slowly recovering. It is yet to show big magic.
There are also speculation that Rishi Sunak, Indian-Origin Chancellor under the present governor might be poised to replace Boris Johnson as the Prime Minister. Everything depends on the govt. policies and how pandemic will be handled and thats the political question in UK.
South Korea
Unlike other countries here Presidents cannot seek another term. President Moon Jae-In cannot run for re-election. This time the fight is between Lee Jae -Myung of the Democratic party vs Yoon Suek- Youl of People's power. The election will be held in the month of march.
Australia
This country is also about to see an election, Prime Minister Scott Morrison will face an election. China and pandemic are the two big issues talked about in this election. The election outcome will decide the future of a lot of programmes and policies implemented in the country.
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