PM Modi on the day of Guru Nanak Jayanti announced that his government will repeal the three farm laws that were passed a year ago and this was done purely on the request of protesting farmers. Modi claims that this withdrawal was because he was unable to convince of its benefits while farmers believe that it was because of their persistent protests and the opposition parties believe that it was because it's because of their pressure and unconditional support to farmers on the issue. Now, it's clear that each side has its own version of the truth. But the political scientists and analytic journalists have another story to tell.
 |
| Credits- The Business Standard |
Read our article on the Consequences of 2021 state elections
Read our article on Bihar elections 2020 and lessons for 2021
It is pretty much evident for anyone who reads the news constantly that BJP is looking ahead at the Punjab and UP elections. Even the selection of the day of Guru Nanak Jayanti makes the intentions pretty evident. Post the announcements, when the parliament session started, the law was directly repealed without any discussion in the parliament makes the central government's intentions clear that it doesn't want any talks or any discussion of the matter partially or fully. The ministers and leaders including Modi himself have forgotten about the issue as such. The government and BJP party is consciously trying not to speak about it and thus preventing the topic from appearing in the spotlight.
Exploring BJP's decision to backtrack
BJP believes that upsetting farmers will negatively affect their prospectus in UP elections, especially in Western UP which is developed compared to the rest of the state, at the same time has a strong Mandi system. Even though cities and urban centres will back BJP, this issue will hamper its winning ability in rural areas. BJP very well understand the importance of UP and its elections. Road to parliament passes through UP, for 2024 BJP needs to win UP in a massive way at least to compensate smaller losses elsewhere. BJP would bank on the 2022 UP elections to create momentum for the Lok Sabha elections, just like 2014 and 2019. Apart from that BJP needs smaller gains from Punjab, especially when Congress has become weak in the only state which could have won. Now, with ex-CM Capt. Amarinder Singh formed a new party and joined hands with BJP, the situation has improved for it. This alliance will bank more on the Hindu votes than Sikh votes.
BJP was on the back foot when the protests emerged, and later when the opposition took up the issue. Even the bypolls saw a massive setback for BJP which showed local anger against the government. The party and govt understood that benefit of the issue would go to the opposition. Govt. earlier expected people to accept the three farms and support the govt. Since this never happened, it wanted to stop the opposition from capitalising on the gains of the public anger. By repealing, BJP has stripped opposition of its biggest weapon. Even the farmers who had political aspirations were forced to withdraw their plans. So this opposition juggernaut has successfully been hit on a roadblock. That is also why political leaders are searching for new topics and issues. Rahul Gandhi is trying to prove himself a better Hindu than just a few days after Modi inaugurated the Kashi corridor. The opposition has again fallen into the trap of BJP as explained in a previous article.
If people thought that the Modi government became complacent about people's issues and their worries then that's not at all true. If that was the case, then the government wouldn't have been firm in the past as well as would have allowed the discussion in the parliament. By one-sided actions, Modi has again proven to be more authoritarian without giving any ears to the opposition. The same model he had tried to emulate in Gujarat.
Implications of Farm laws repeal on the politics and policy
Despite Modi's muscular image, we can see govt's backtracking citing a political backlash to be justified for a reformist decision, the country will have to face problems if the leaders care only about electoral success and will be afraid to implement reformative decisions. At the same time, the political class should be able to convince and take all sides into confidence. That separate democracy from other forms of governance.
BJP's changing strategy, Is it comprising its ideology?
Apart from repealing the farm laws, we can see how BJP is now channelising its strength back on its ideology and also its promises made with respect to ideology. Modi through Yogi is projecting infrastructure projects at the same time projecting Ayodhya temple, Kashi Temple corridor and also attacking opposition leaders personally and ideologically. This also happens to be the same month of Babri Masjid demolition, so the UP election is now fully fired up. Opinion polls still give an edge for another BJP term and also how BSP is being sidelined from the main picture.
Modi had never apologised in the past for any mistake he made. This includes demonetisation. Also, BJP will never ever comprise on its ideological achievements like abrogation of art-370, Ayodhya temple or even for that matter CAA. If there wouldn't have been a pandemic, BJP would have accelerated its ideological plank. BJP very well knows that its audience will love ideological decisions, so BJP is keeping a particular set of vote banks happy. Only the swing votes might sway from BJP but the Hindu vote bank will stay solid. So even if CAA rules haven't been out yet, BJP has brushed the issue under carpet for now. There is no sign that there will be backtracking. Thus we can see BJP moving back on farmer's laws but not CAA. Thus politics is more important for BJP.
Political challenges for 2022 and where various political parties stand
Upcoming elections are for Goa, UP, Punjab, Manipur, Uttarakhand and later in Gujarat. Only states Congress is key in Goa, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Gujarat. With a lot of rifts and the death of Ahmed Patel, we can see negligible chances of Congress giving good competition like it did in 2017. Uttarakhand is seeing massive anti-incumbency against the local BJP govt. which Congress could capitalise. UP, is dominated by BJP and SP fully. Despite Priyanka Gandhi's effort to capitalise on women votes, Congress has no chance. BSP is very much lacking in the contest, this is good news for SP and bad for BJP. AIMIM Assaduddin Owaisi Goa is now seeing a four-corner contest between NDA, UPA, AAP and now TMC. Manipur which used to be a Congress stronghold has been taken over by BJP. There are very few chances for govt toppling any time soon. Punjab will be seeing a four front fight between fractured Congress, AAP, Akali Dal and BJP-Amarinder Singh's party.
So this is the political map. Alternation of the present political map is highly unlikely but parties need the 2022 momentum to take it forward to 2024. State parties like AAP and TMC are looking forward to expanding out of their traditional states and forming a national level third front. Fractured opposition itself is a big victory for BJP, in addition to that, there is internal competition, especially from Mamata to project herself as the national leader fighting Modi.
Way Ahead for politics and parties for 2022 and beyond
UP is the biggest crown in the race while Punjab and Goa is the recovery button for Congress. For state parties, even being kingmaker itself is a credible achievement. SP is trying to make a comeback in UP with at least 150-200 seats pushing back against BJP. For that SP would allies like RLD and more votes from other party vote banks which looks unlikely. Gujarat and Goa is a must-win for BJP. Uttarakhand will see a tight fight.
Repeal of the farmer's laws is the new bargaining chip for BJP and the government of the day. Up to an extent BJP will benefit in the short run and also in the long run. But, farmers are still angry and there are a lot of local issues that matter. In the name of electoral politics, BJP has backtracked on the issue and this might for the first time being afraid of the "farmer" votebank.BJP's developmental plank backed by Mandir politics will further shape up its way from 2022 to 2024. UP will decide the future of the country's politics. Even opposition parties want to project who is a better Hindu, who is Hindu and who is Hindutvavadi.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you need special blog coverage for UP elections. Comment or respond.
Idea credits for the Blog
ThePrint- National Interest, Cut The Clutter, Pure Politics, Politricks
The Lallantop- Netanagri
Data Credits
ECI
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DM on our FB, Insta page or comment down for collaborations.
Comments
Post a Comment