2023 ended with a hope for another year of normalcy. Everyone expects 2024 to be as good as 2023. Politically speaking, 2024 will be one of the most important years for world politics. Hence, this year is something that you should be surely watching this year. 2024 will have more elections than any year to date. Over 7 out of 10 most populous countries in the world are heading for polls this year. India, the most populous one, will have a two-month-long election process in the summer. Elections in India are like festivals.
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| CREDITS- WIKI |
More than 3 Billion voters will select their leaders which will affect the population of more than 4 Billion people. This is more than half the world that is heading for polls. It is not just full democracies electing but even semi-democracies, hybrid regimes and much more. Besides elections, there are two major conflicts happening- the Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas conflict. There are other minor issues affecting people’s lives as well such as the refugee crisis, climate change, economic issues, civil wars and a lot more.
Apart from core political issues, this year will be eventful with a lot of sporting events, concerts, usual award ceremonies, exciting movies to watch and a lot more. We will have the most significant one- The Paris 2024 Olympics, ICC T20 WC, AFC Asia Cup, etc. We will discuss important political events to watch for in detail in this article.
India
The world’s largest democracy and the world’s most populous country will be heading for elections in the month of April and May. The 17th Lok Sabha tenure will end in a few days. After the interim budget of February. The country will move into an extravaganza from March till the end of month of May. The elections will be held for the 18th Lok Sabha which will be based in the newly inaugurated Parliament Building part of the Central Vista. The majority party or the alliance of the parliament will determine who will form the new government in 2024.
For a decade, Indian politics have been single-handedly run by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the party of Centre-Right in India which follows the ideology of Hindutva, unabashed nationalism and a strong central government. The party is seeking to win once more with an even greater majority. The party highlights enhanced national security, stable economic growth, important changes in governance, muscular foreign policy, massive infrastructure and welfare policies. Constitutional changes to Kashmir state, Citizenship Amendment, changes to Criminal laws, Vande Bharat trains, Ram Mandir etc, form the cornerstone of the party’s achievements by its own standard.
The Opposition parties comprise a mix of National and Regional Parties. Congress Party is the largest opposition party but has 10% of the seat share despite having 20% of the votes. The newly formed INDIA alliance is the only hope but statistics and strategies do not run in its favour. So who will win and by how many seats is what everyone is waiting for?
Apart from the Lok Sabha elections, several states are also heading for legislative elections. Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh will go for polls simultaneously while Haryana, Maharastra and Jharkhand will elect in November this year.
Kerala
Due to this being my home state and a lot of readers from there. Kerala will elect 20 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Unlike the rest of India, BJP is not present here. Hence, the opposition appears to do well here. This doesn’t mean the BJP has given up.
PM Modi has been visiting the state multiple times on multiple occasions. Today, BJP is betting on a few seats like Thrissur and Trivandrum to increase its vote share and lastly to secure victory. BJP has been using Christian appeasement and Communalisation to make gains in the recent past. The main political issues in the state include the Governor vs the state Government. The Governor is not giving assent to bills passed while the government and the ruling party have been trying to politically witchhunt the Governor on multiple issues.
The state apart from this has been going through an acute financial crisis. The government claims that this is due to multiple restrictions and ignorance of the state government. There are competing claims on this but the challenge was for the state to pay its bills through limited sources of revenue. Apart from these two, allegations of corruption, shortage of civil supplies, increased prices of government subsidies, etc. The differing viewpoints on projects like K-Rail, Sabarimala Airport, etc. have grabbed more than enough news headlines.
USA
The third largest country and the world’s oldest democracy in the world. Its legislature and executive will head for elections in the month of November. The most watched after is the Presidential Election whose procedure has been started with the Iowa caucus which will go on till the beginning of January 2025 when the elections will be certified.
The candidacy will be between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party who will finalise them in the coming weeks. For Democrats, it's almost certain that incumbent President Joe Biden will win be their candidate while for Republicans it will finalised sooner. The leading chance for GOP is for Donald Trump but Nikki Haley is giving her best as of the time of curation of this article. Other candidates have dropped out with the majority of them favouring Donald Trump. It's only Chris Christy who has supported Nikki Haley.
The majority of the polls suggest that people do not want a repeat of the 2020 election which is bad news for both sides. Amidst the low approval ratings and polarised environment will likely make this a tight and interesting fight giving both candidates a tough time. Democratic Party has been quite formidable and has seen a lot of victories in the past four years barring Republicans taking control of the House narrowly. Republican Party is divided on whether to back Trump or not despite losing consistently in the past few years. Apart from the Presidential race, the US will vote for the Senate, the House of Representatives and Gubernatorial elections. In a nutshell, this will be a top-notch election year.
UK/Britain
This will be one of the most decisive and sought-after elections in the world right now. After a disastrous Brexit and economic crisis in the country, the ruling Tories are getting unpopular after a decade-and-a-half-long rule. The Opposition Labour Party is the favourite to win the election with a landslide as per the polls. Both PM Rishi Sunak and Opposition leader Keir Stammer are leading their parties for the first time, hence this election will decide who is more capable to lead their respective parties.
Pakistan
Many people dispute the fact that it is a democracy although for this purpose we can categorise it as the most famous hybrid regime in this world. The country is seeking a more stable situation through an election. The country has been ravaged by an economic crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a deadly flood. The previous Prime Minister and populist Imran Khan was ousted in a non-confidence motion. Hence, the elections this time are going to be crucial.
The current government is a unity alliance between historic rival parties PPP and PML-N. Imran Khan’s party PTI is playing the spoiler by claiming a witchhunt by the establishment and army. He is currently in jail and has been facing tons of legal challenges. The army is key in deciding who is in power. The current also changes the security challenges across the border from the Taliban and also from TTP an in-born terror group working against the Pakistani establishment. In addition, the Baloch Liberation Front and groups operating in Iran have been a massive headache for the Army.
Mexico
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was notable for standing up against Trump on multiple issues. As per the Mexican Constitution, no incumbent President can run again. Along with the Presidential race, there is the election to the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Claudia Sheinbaum, Xóchitl Gálvez, and Jorge Álvarez Máynez are the main contenders for the Presidency. Jorge Álvarez Máynez is the leader of a coalition while Claudia Sheinbaum is the ex-Mayor of Mexico City. Samuel Garzia has replaced Jorge due to low performance. Claudia Sheinbaum is leading in the race far and wide to be the president of Mexico for six years. Mexico is one of the largest trade partners of the USA. Mexico is very important when closely associated with US politics and the rest of America.
Bangladesh
One of the most important countries in India’s neighbourhood. The election in the country was over in the early weeks of January itself. The Centre-Left Party Awami League won the election in a landslide. The landslide outcome is not a surprise as the main opposition party BNP had boycotted it. However, it raised a question about the free and fair system and the authoritarian tendencies within the country’s system. In recent years, Bangladesh has been an interesting growth story in the region, rising out of religious and ethnic conflicts. But how can the country remains politically stable without comprising on democratic freedoms is yet to be watched for.
China
This is not a democracy hence expect no election this year. 2023 was the year when Xi Jinping entered his ground-breaking third term. Also, 2023 saw a mix of political controversies and geopolitical challenges. Unlike before, China has withdrawn from its strict neutrality in 2022 to a slightly more pro-Russia and softer on Putin’s actions. Both countries have proactively collaborated together in multiple forums and still continue to do so.
Taiwan may be the next flashpoint for China. In the APEC summit, Xi told Biden that China will never allow Taiwan to secede. This was amidst the most anti-China government and President in power. Although the factors that favour an annexation are not yet there for China. Geopolitically, China has acted smarter than Russia and many of its allies. It uses more peaceful methods and diplomacy in getting deals done. Hence people refuse to believe that it will take a knee-jerk action on Taiwan. Domestically, Xi is cracking down on dissent and also replacing old leaders in his cabinet with loyalists. This is amidst economic slowdown, demographic decline and possible cold war with the United States.
Taiwan
The election for selecting the President is over giving the strong anti-China Democratic Progressive Party a significant victory. The results were much awaited by all and were not essentially surprising to anyone watching them closely. After Ukraine, Taiwan was on the back foot and was supporting Ukraine in the conflict. Although, despite all the apprehensions, the dispute on who is the real China is still going on. Taiwan hasn’t given up on its claims with other countries. Will China gulp it down or will the United West will be able to stop China? The world will be watching closely on this in 2024 as well.
Russia
There exists disagreement about whether it is actually, a democracy or not. Most people regard it as an authoritarian country with President Vladimir Putin at the top and ruling continuously for more than two decades. He is running for reelection, which experts say is already a done deal. After the war with Ukraine, Europe became united and Russia became more isolated. Even though everyone thought that Kyiv would fall in days, today Ukraine is still alive and giving a tough time for Russia. Currently, Russia is largely dependent on China and developing countries for everything. So, this year we have to see whether Russia will behave differently than in the past two years and whether will it weaken and collapse in the hands of China as the Western world expects it to be.
Ukraine
This country is facing massive challenges like no other country in recent times. The amount of resilience and determination shown by the people of the country. War will be witnessing its second anniversary on 24th February. Even though the war is mainly happening on its eastern frontiers, 15% of its land is under the control of Russians. Often it's other cities such as Kyiv and Lviv are bombarded with missiles and its civilian infrastructure is targeted.
Its President Zelesnky has been travelling across the world, calling for support. The latest boost to Ukraine has been the Patriot Missiles. It has subsided for now, but Ukraine will need more help from all sides. So how far will it be able to defend itself in this year as more Ukraine-supporting countries are heading for elections this year? There won’t be an election this time due to the war and the martial law being imposed. It has been five years since populist Volodymyr Zelensky took charge in a landslide. Hence, we will have to wait to see more political changes.
Israel-Hamas
On 7th October last year, Israel witnessed multiple rockets showering over its cities and its southern cities attacked on-ground by Hamas. Since then Israel has been raiding the Gaza Strip which people have criticised for disproportionate response and for war crimes. Call for more Humanitarian support and an immediate ceasefire has been echoing a lot within the Western capitals. The Western support for Israel has been going down and PM Netanyahu is getting unpopular each day. We need to wait and watch what happens to the weak and current government in Israel and how far this counteroffensive goes. The hostages are yet to be freed and just like Ukraine, this issue will be an important campaign issue in the 2024 elections across the Western world.
European Elections
EU is one of the most important international institutions. Just like other countries we discussed before, the European Union will go to elections in the middle of this year. All the EU member countries will select their representatives to the European Parliament located in Strasbourg, France. The Parliament is the legislative wing of the EU in charge of making laws for the Union. The highlight of European elections is that both Macro and Micro issues are discussed in these. The importance of this election in 2024 cannot be restricted to meagre words. Europe has never faced a crisis like none since the end of the Cold War. Ukraine and its adjoining issues have become a matter of Europe’s top concern.
The refugee crisis, Energy Crisis, Security policy, NATO, funding to Ukraine, Red Sea issue, Israel-Palestine issues, Uktaine’s EU candidacy, Climate Change, etc. dominate the 2024 election agenda. Also, the EU might probably brace for a Trump Presidency where Europe will have to care for itself.
Paris 2024
It is one of the most awaited events to watch for this year. Having hosted the most number of Olympics, Paris is hosting the Olympics once again. After the Tokyo 2020 Olympics held in 2021, this is going to be a big event.
References
TIME- https://time.com/6550920/world-elections-2024/
AP- https://apnews.com/article/global-elections-2024-preview-cb77b0940964c5c95a9affc8ebb6f0b7
Olympics- https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/paris-2024
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