On 7th October, Israel witnessed multiple rockets showering over its cities and its southern cities attacked on-ground by Hamas. Many Israeli and foreign citizens were taken hostages and many others were killed in direct attacks. The amount of deaths is one of the highest in years for Israel. Many experts also claim it is Israel's 9/11 or the 7/10. Why it happened? We will answer it elaborately in the article. You will see extensive coverage of the live events and analysis on mainstream media, but what I will be focusing on is the reasoning behind the same.
In 1973, during the festival of Yom Kippur, the month of October, Syria and Egypt jointly made a surprise attack on Israel. Exactly 50 years after the same, Hamas made a surprise attack on Israeli cities, firing rockets and through ground incursions. Hamas fired more than 5000 rockets and Israel dropped 6000 tonnes worth of bombs in Gaza at the time of publishing the article. With Israel calling for a full-scale invasion in Gaza, the situation will be unprecedented which will demand a careful and nuanced understanding of the issue.
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| Credits- Pew Research |
Major actors and their role
Unlike popular perception, Palestine is not a nation-state and what exactly is Palestine? is open to interpretation. Israel is recognised all over the world and not Palestine hence, the domestic situation is complicated. The most important actors in the conflict are- the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) or the Fatah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah besides state actors. Besides the external actors can be Iran, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, USA etc.
Coming to Palestine, Fatah is the most important player and is considered the legitimate authority in ruling and representing Palestine but the fact is most of the powers still continue with Israel, like military, security, coast, airspace, immigration etc. Fatah controls the authority. This Authority was established in 1994 after the Oslo Accords. But even now the authority lacks sovereignty nor does it have control of the West Bank. Fatah is a secular entity and recognises Israel's right to exist.
Hamas is the defacto ruling entity in Gaza. It came into power through legitimate methods such as election but since then it has been a one-sided approach. Although it was founded in 1986, has always used violent methods and acts of terrorism. The main reason it grew to prominence was due to the failure of moderate factions. It started out as a resistance movement. It categorically rejected the Oslo Accords which would have brought peace. It won the majority in the Authority from Gaza after which it threw Fatah out of the Gaza Strip. Since then it has been a tough time for the residents. More than 20 countries have designated Hamas as a terrorist organisation.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad is a militant cum terrorist organisation based in Gaza Strip. It is more extremist and radical than Hamas. Both Hamas and PIJ believe that Israel shouldn't exist. Lastly, there is Hezbollah which controls southern Lebanon which is both a party and an armed wing. It supported Shia groups in Syria and Iraq besides being the biggest supporter of Hamas. It is the world's largest non-state army which would be even larger than Israel's frontline forces. Hezbollah played a key role in eliminating ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In 2005, Israel and Hezbollah had a direct war which saw an Israeli withdrawal after they were driven away by Hezbollah rockets.
Map of Political Control of the Region
Reasons and Causes
Abrahamic Accords
On September 15th 2020, UAE and Bahrain signed the Abrahamic Accords which recognised Israel. It was on January 13th 2020 that the Trump Administration was to create a breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was largely unfair to the Palestinians that their lands would have been annexed which were once occupied. UAE entered the picture and settled a deal with the USA to recognise Israel in turn for F35s.
Other than these, Morocco recognised Israel in turn for American recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Saharan region. So in a way, recognition of Israel by these Arab countries was the result of a give-and-take. Parallely, Saudi Arabia and Israel have been having back-channel talks for a very long time, which even till today has yet to be confirmed.
Abraham Accords and its side effects
Israel's biggest enemies for the longest time were its own neighbours but these tensions weren't good for the region as a whole. Through earlier peace accords both Israel and they understood their national interest was to stay at peace. The term Abraham Accords means that all the Abrahamic religions will unite and continue to work together. So, countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia understand the economic and geopolitical importance of Israel.
But when the accords were signed in 2020, those countries who shook hands with Israel were doing it on a transactional note. Hence, we find that the main side effect of it was the sidelining and alienation of the Palestinian cause which these Arab states held up for a long period of time. Today, those who want to speak on behalf of them have reduced which has led to radical groups like Hamas and Palestinian Jihad; taking advantage of the same. Hence, such attacks have halted full implementations of these accords.
Changing Geopolitics
The Soviet Union always had the upper hand in the region until the Iranian Islamic Revolution happened in 1979. This meant that the region moved rightwards towards conservative and radical Islam as Iran started investing in proxies. The Hamas and other groups have taken advantage of this. Israel wanted to bypass taking Palestinians and talking to neighbours instead which wasn't unsustainable. Moreover, the USA's disinterest in the region especially under the Trump Administration gave way to stronger non-state actors, alienated countries like Iran to play politics and take aim at its enemies like Israel. Also, this period saw increasingly smaller actors that engage in asymmetric warfare like Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas which are weakening the state actors. Today there is a new anti-American axis in the Middle East- Russia, Iran, Syria, and China which has taken a different stance than other countries.
Israeli domestic politics and policies
Israel has always a polarised and unstable democracy with no party getting a full majority. Hence, multiple left-wing and right-wing governments have come into power. For the longest period, it has been dominated by left-wing parties and coalitions. Today, it is the most right-wing government ever to be formed in the country today and has been trying to make structural changes within the country. Similarly, Benjamin Netanyahu who was once a moderate right-wing leader has moved more rightwards and has been more vocal against settling the issue of Israel-Palestine.
Netanyahu's policies have been aiding the rise of Hamas in recent years for his electoral gain as David Shumsky. Through this, he was able to alienate the secular and moderate Palestinian Authority (PA). Netanyahu has always supported one-state policy- Only Israel and rejected the two-state resolution as per the Oslo Accords. Also, his policies of weakening the PA are directly linked to building up Jewish settlements in the West Bank and razing Palestinian homes as a method of law enforcement. All these have led to the growth of anger in their respective people. Jewish settlers also are armed with guns and other explosives for self-defense but these settlers have often misused it and killed a lot of Palestinians.
In earlier times, as a method of solving the issue, a lot of Palestinians from both sides were given work permits to work in Israel and make money. In the recent past, Israel has stopped it and replaced it with workers from India and South East Asian countries. This has broken the people-to-people contact which is essential for fostering relations and for people to get employment.
Israeli Military and Intelligence Failure
Israel is considered to be a security state which multiple countries have tried and failed to implement. In the most recent attack- the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), Mossad, and Shin Bet failed to detect this. This is especially true for the fact that it is the 50th anniversary and the state should have been more vigilant. Also, since the 2000s, there have been a lot of incursions from multiple sides and Israel failed to secure itself as well as implement long-term plans. Settling issues locally was never a priority due to domestic political pressures. We can expect an Israeli commission post the situation becomes normal to see what went wrong and to hold those guilty responsible for incompetence.
Al Aqsa Issue
By far it is the most sensitive issue in the entire Israel-Palestine conflict. It is a pilgrimage centre in the old Jerusalem area equally important for Christians, Jews, Muslims and Armenians. Temple Mount is the holiest place for Jews. It was destroyed by the Romans after which it came under the control of Muslims where they built the Al Aqsa Mosque. Hence it's a common place of worship for both religions equally.
But since 1967, Israel gained full control of the city from the Jordanians. This meant they imposed restrictions on Muslims coming to the mosque, fighting for security, etc. For the longest period of time, it was this area that was known for friction between Israel and Palestine. It was the area with the highest security and police forces which also led to clashes between the Police and Muslims as they believed that Israel was altering the sanctity of the place. The ten-day Gaza war in 2021, was also the result of the clashes in the mosque. This repeated again in 2022 and 2023. Israel usually brings metal detectors, tear guns and pellets which many people find not adhering to the sanctity of the place.
In 2023, it was a big controversy with Israel allowing the Jewish settlers to visit the Al Aqsa Mosque which is also forbidden for Jews to enter as per their own law. For this Israel closed the compound solely for them and didn't allow Muslims to enter. Later few Jewish people were seen spitting in the Christian quarter which created more faultlines between Jews and Christians. To an extent, even Christians were unhappy with the Jewish masters in the area.
Why is it significant now? Hamas on October 7th called for Operation Al Aqsa asking people across Palestine to take revenge for what happened in the Mosque. For the longest period of time, Palestinian leaders have used the status of Al Aqsa to create anger and use it to leverage the situation against Israel. This is why the majority of the Israeli Defence Forces were deployed in the West Bank Region. This meant Gaza was largely unguarded which paved the way for Hamas to take aim at Israeli cities on the border on October 7th and beyond. The Israeli-Palestine conflict will remain emotional as long as tensions on the mosque compound continue.
Isolated Gaza
With 2 Million population, is one of the most tightly packed and one of the most dense regions on the planet. Since 2009, Gaza has been under blockade from four sides. Experts claim it is an open-air prison where they cannot go anywhere. Half of the population is children and young people who have lived in this environment hating Jews and Israel. Since the election of Hamas in Gaza, the governance in the region has been abysmal. Hamas has taken advantage of their anger to instigate violence and hatred.
As said before, Israel has stopped issuing permits which has left a lot of youth without proper education and jobs which means they now shelter with radical groups like Hamas and Palestinian Jihad. They recruit them to attack Israel, conduct violence against Israelis and other forms of terrorist activities. The families are also helpless in this regard. More Israeli relation has also indicated rising support for Hamas. As said before, who speaks for the Gazans? This is an important question. If Arab countries won't speak for Palestinians, it will be Hamas.
Hamas received training and funds from countries like Iran. The same country which has supported Houthis and Hezbollah. With the blockade, they have started making rockets domestically. These rockets are fired at Israel in large numbers which are intercepted by the Iron Dome. This is followed by Israeli air raids and targeted killings that stop the rocket attacks temporarily. Hamas uses this time to study and replenish the number of rockets and fires them again. This cycle repeats. The last time it was so, the worst it got was in 2021 and now after two years, Hamas was preparing well for the surprise attack. Iron Dome recently also faced a challenge when it failed due to an immense amount of rockets.
Legality of the Situation
Who can be held responsible for what has happened? There are two major branches that deal with this situation- International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and International Criminal Responsibility. The Humanitarian law deals with laws of war ie. on the conduct of war. Since Palestine is not a state and Hamas is not a state actor, this situation can be termed as a civil war. However given that the Palestinian population are stateless, there exists no way for the population to protect themselves without external help.
First and foremost, Israel being a member-state of the UN, has the right to defend itself against external threats such as this as per various provisions of the UN Charter. Secondly, Israel can defend itself only through lawful means. Israel's attack on civilians, civilian infrastructure, hospitals and media persons through air raids or ground attacks is effectively prohibited as per various provisions of the Geneva Conventions. Thirdly, Israel has failed to differentiate between legal combatants and civilians. However, what exactly legal combatants mean in the context is unclear. Fourth, it is a violation to prevent civilian supplies and services to Gaza which is a violation of multiple human rights and other international treaties. The Israeli government can itself prosecute any individual for his criminal responsibility but to what extent Israel will do that in the era of anger and hostility is yet to be seen.
As for Hamas, there exist no exact provisions for it to defend itself as a sovereign entity. International Law doesn't favour terrorist groups which makes it not liable nor a responsible actor. Hamas' indiscriminate attack on Israeli civilians and taking them hostage is banned by multiple International laws. Also, people's criticism of the fact that Hamas uses Human shields and doesn't care for Palestinian civilians is also prohibited. But, since Palestine is not a sovereign state, it is harder to punish Hamas individuals who are responsible for the same. Although Israel can try Hamas in Israeli law which means, Israel recognises that Palestinians can be prosecuted in Israeli law which is counterproductive.
Most people on social media claim there is genocide in Gaza, which is not right as of now. What Israel is guilty of is War crimes and Crimes Against Humanity. The extent of deaths should be much higher to be termed as a Genocide. In short, taking the legal path needs international-level consensus either to proceed for the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court which looks highly unlikely. Also, note that IHL doesn't regulate the start and end of the war.
Also Listen to
Way Ahead
This is a century-old conflict which is extremely hard to simplify, declutter and solve. For a few years, this has been deemed as a frozen one without any significant progress. The idea of Abraham Accords was an attempt to resolve it which has left an irreversible situation which demands proper resolution. No temporary solutions like this will not end the conflict properly. We must at least now realise that, taking into confidence the population of Palestine.
The attack on Southern Israel, frequent rocket launches and over-control of Al Aqsa mosque are destroying peace and they have to be condemned. Effective steps can be taken to take control of the situation by protecting civilians. But using these as weapons to advance individual interests over the conflict; especially Israel has to take decisions more responsibly as a state actor. Israel currently looks united against Hamas with a large section of the population seeking revenge but in the long run, such a unilateral action can be catastrophic and counterproductive.
The best way ahead is to prioritise the importance of the Oslo Accords and the various changes of the 1990s that were acceptable to both sides and gave more autonomy to the Palestinians. The moderate leadership of Fatah should also stand alongside Israel and make a common path for the future of the region. Arab neighbours and even the USA can take the initiative to play a constructive role and not take sides.
References
- Fareed Zakaria- https://youtu.be/GI0810gD6Eg?si=qJslo6sMP4zjY9kt; https://youtu.be/-h1XD7fQSfg?si=X-aDoMvlA1GMn9Yl
- David Shumsky- https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-11/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-needed-a-strong-hamas/0000018b-1e9f-d47b-a7fb-bfdfd8f30000
- https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/09/israel-hamas-war-netanyahu-palestine-united-states-diplomacy-alliance/
- https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-ramps-up-demolition-of-palestinian-homes-in-jerusalem
- Zeidan, A. (2023, October 3). Abraham Accords. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Abraham-Accords
- https://imeu.org/article/fact-sheet-the-palestinian-authority
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/4/israeli-settlers-storm-al-aqsa-mosque-complex-on-fifth-day-of-sukkot
- https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/experts-laws-war-apply-hamas-israeli-military-rcna120767
- The Print
- The Lallantop
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