Kerala Demographic Challenge and the Way Forward

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#opinion Kerala is a state that is often considered one of the best places to live in India. It ranks high on multiple indices of the NITI Aayog and boasts impressive Human Development Indicators such as literacy rate, healthcare, education, and low corruption. This success is attributed to the contributions of visionary leaders, irrespective of political affiliation, as well as public participation in socio-politics, policymakers, subject experts, the erstwhile Travancore Kingdom, and many others. This collective effort has led to what is known as the Kerala Model of Development. The state is among the top ten in terms of both GDP and per capita income. Despite Kerala's significant progress in quality of life and human development parameters, there are other fronts where this success is lacking. Today, Kerala is in the news for negative reasons such as a financial crisis, decreased revenue, rising debt, high unemployment, brain drain, and other challenges. While some issues are ov

How Kerala Story Film is a Win-Win situation for the BJP

#Opinion

The Kerala Story is a film released on 5th May by director Sudipto Sen. It is based on three women from Kerala recruited by ISIS and to Afghanistan without their proper knowledge (forcefully). This movie prior to its release as well as after it saw massive political controversies, surrounding this. This article will talk about the film's political implications and how it will benefit the BJP; not on the content of the same. It is unfortunate that whether a film is good or bad, watch worthy or not depends on the party or the ideology you support.

Have films and content for entertainment ever been part of political rhetoric or discourse? The answer would be yes or no. Coming to films getting into political controversies has happened multiple times recently, especially under the Modi regime; online trolls, BJP-IT cell, and the so-called supporters of Modi would surely give their reviews of the movie. Depending on the story, content, director of the movie, and whether it aligns with the narrative of the Present Modi government the movie either gets praise and support or gets bashing and boycott calls. The same holds true for liberal intelligentsia which either supports or discredits a movie. Although the scale of the same is miles apart. BJP IT cell is far more well organised in this aspect than anyone else. Taking recent examples, Kashmir Files, Pathan, etc. 


Usually, it is the online communities and low-level supporters that put the movies in a tight spot. It is hard to say if the instruction came from the top. Many eminent persons in the film fraternity raised this issue directly as well. Until in the recent past, the issue of Kashmir Files did attract the open support of the BJP from top to bottom. Coming to Kerala Story, on 3rd May, there was a film screening organised by the ABVP in the JNU campus first bringing to light that the movie did receive the patronage of RSS-BJP. But, it was hard to conclude based on this, because ABVP is a group of young audience and JNU has had such an event before as well. That has not been the case in Kerala, the BJP Kerala wing had already adopted the film content and given a clean certificate that yes, the film portrays what they were saying for a long time. 

The biggest shock came on the 5th of May, evening in Karnataka, on the same day the film was released. PM Modi in his election rally mentioned the movie and how it has exposed the anti-India forces and that the Congress party supports such silent forms of terrorism. There is no doubt that PM Modi wouldn't have seen the film. But it was evident that BJP's top brass has given the clean chit to use it for political mileage. Just a fortnight ago he was in Kerala integrating Vandebharat Express and Water Metro. On 6th May, the state of Madhya Pradesh (going to election later this year) declared the movie tax-free. There is now no doubt that many states might follow this suit. This is the same pattern that took place for Kashmir Files, but the intensity now is far more given the polarised environment and election. The movie was able to beat all the initial expectations, hence it is clear that all the political controversies did help the movie reach records. Even the director and the actors wouldn't have expected this much support. 

How BJP gets the Benefit out of this issue?

Karnataka Election

There is no doubt that what happened on 5th May from the voice of PM Modi will trickle down the cadre to the ground. Each and every leader and worker can take the issue up and spin it for elections. BJP's strategy in the state has been to nationalise the election and project Modi as the main face. The biggest impact is going to be in the regions which have traditionally been favourable to BJP- Central and Coastal Karnataka. Coastal Karnataka gave a massive chunk of its seats to the BJP in 2018. This is a very religiously sensitive and polarised region. This is also a region with a very active presence of PFI which makes things easier for the BJP to polarise and benefit when there is statewide anti-incumbency. At least if not this year, it will set the stage for 2024, when BJP will sweep the state. BJP also hints that if Congress comes to power in 2023, then Karnataka can become like Kerala. This same sentence was said by Amit Shah a few weeks back. Hence the narrative is already set. BJP State President Navin Kateel said that "Roads, Sewage are minor issues" and Love Jihad is the major issue. 

Check our latest podcast episode on Karnataka Election.

Intended Audience 

There is no doubt that the movie is designed for a pan-India audience. The language is mainly Hindi and the actors are not from Kerala as well. Hence, the viewership for the film is going to primarily be from the Hindi heartland which is traditionally favourable to BJP. Currently, those who are screening the film are giant players like- Cinepolis, PVR etc. which is accessible to the urban audience of India, which is also the biggest vote bank of the BJP. Hence, the movie is undoubtedly reaching the right audience. Lastly, those who want to watch the film desperately will be mainly blind pro-BJP voters and those who won't want to watch will be blind opposition voters. Hence, it doesn't make much difference. Whether you watch the film or not is largely aligned with your political preference again which directly favours one party. 

Political Economy 

BJP's money generally comes from donations and electoral bonds. Currently, BJP is the single largest beneficiary of the same. Movies can be exploited for political reasons and it does provide free publicity to the ruling party. Hence, BJP can get a lot of attraction and set the narrative with minimal cost. It is also possible that this money can come to the coffers of the party. There is no doubt that other parties like Congress and regional parties can also follow this suit.  

Divert Attention 

Currently, as we speak, there is a massive law and order issue in the state of Manipur. The coverage of the same in national media is very abysmal. Similarly, the issue of Wrestlers protesting in the national capital has spread a lot of anger against the government but there is no sign of it giving up. What the BJP nationally wants is a distraction from anti-government issues. This headline of the movie is what it actually needed for some time now. Also given that the narrative of the movie aligns with BJP's ideology, it is even better. 

Kerala Politics

Kerala since independence has been ruled by Congress or Left-Front alliance, the two big arch rivals of BJP. The state has never given enough space for the BJP. Despite this, there is no doubt that the BJP has some presence in urban pockets of the state which again does have access to the film. It is also trying hard to enter the state in all possible ways, including appeasing the Christian community by appealing to the Church. The Church has been vocal about the case of forced conversions more than BJP itself. Hence, the narrative is in the direction BJP wants it to be. This is also its chance to penetrate into the affluent audience. 

Secularism and Communal Harmony 

BJP's main plank has been polarisation and communalisation. Till now, BJP's target was political parties in Kerala. This movie targets Kerala's society which is largely claimed to be secular and the communal harmony the state has represented in the worst of its times. The movie hence for the first time shows why Kerala isn't so secular after all and that communal harmony is just a mask. BJP can now use this to attack secularism not only within Kerala but also in several states and nationally. Anyway from the beginning, the BJP was never happy with the model of secularism followed in India and specifically in  Kerala. Definitely, we can see more films based on religion and politics. Hence it will become more problematic for society, what is religion, what is reality, and what is the line between religion and politics. Will it give rise to more communal tensions or people getting more aware of the dangers of extremism is something we have to note?

National Politics

As mentioned before, the primary rivals of the BJP, are Congress and the Left, it can easily tarnish the parties' image by making them responsible for "Love Jihad" in Kerala and the rest of India. This can be a weapon in all the states where Congress is the primary opponent. Communalistaion has also been the strength of BJP's success in almost all states mainly in Gujarat and Karnataka. Hence this can also be used to bring more repressive and restrictive laws and Kerala's story can be a potential justification. 

Kerala's Image

No doubt, that a single movie cannot tarnish it easily. But it does harm in the long run if people are reminded of the same thing. This will also make people rethink, whatever they had heard about Kerala before. This matters to people who have never been to the state before. Hence, this may be a bigger trendsetter. Also, this movie's name and the content will no doubt will be taken up by a lot of BJP leaders across the country for their own political reasons. Just like how Yogi said, if you don't vote for BJP, UP will become Kerala. The controversy of the movie has also been reported by several International Media outlets. This can surely hamper the state's tourism sector mainly because it brings a lot of tourists to the state and the rest of India. 

Will the BJP be able to Breach the Kerala fortress? 

There is no evidence to show BJP making any gains in the state through this movie. It is obvious to say without evidence that the BJP is taking more damage by showing the state in a bad light confirming the position that the Left and Congress have been saying for a long time. Hence, it is hard for BJP to make some gains with this. Although it is pretty clear that BJP is going to proceed with the same agenda. Thereby which, it can enjoy close relations with the church as well as set the narrative. 

NB- I haven't watched the film, I won't be commenting on the content. 

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