Analysis of Kerala Elections 2026- Trends, Figures, Seats and Numbers
The result for the Kerala Elections 2026 was declared on 4th May. UDF bounced back to power with 102 seats, and LDF collapsed to a record low of 35 seats, and for the first time, BJP won three seats in Southern Kerala. The big guns of LDF, a dozen senior ministers of the cabinet, lost. CPI-M party forts of Kannur, Kollam, Alapuzha, and Kozhikode were dented.
This article will discuss Trends, figures, seats, and Numbers of the elections and how this has indeed been a historic election.
Before we proceed, do read the precursor articles for a better understanding.
Political Geography of Kerala
Kerala is both politically, historically, and geographically divided into three regions — Northern, Central, and Southern. The divisions are largely flexible and don't consider it as the end word, but rather a generalised term. It is also known as Malabar, Cochin, and Travancore, respectively.
Malabar — Kasargod, Kannur, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Malappuram
Cochin — Palakkad, Thrissur, Ernakulam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki
Travancore — Pathanamthitta, Kollam, Trivandrum
Results of Elections 2026
Seats Share
As expected, the victory was astonishing and surprising, with the UDF securing a landslide of 99 seats, just one short of a century. The LDF came in a distant second with 41 seats, and the BJP-led NDA secured 2 seats for the first time. Last time in 2021, the tally was 99 for LDF and 41 for UDF. Before this time, UDF came to power in 2011 through a tight election (72-68) with the UDF having a thin edge. IUML has won 23 out of 25 seats contested.
Analysis
What went against LDF?
Since 2011, LDF has always had the upper hand due to the 2008 delimitation, but that advantage didn't apply during a wave election like what happened now. It was like a massive undercurrent that cut through the core votes of left parties, KC(M), and even demolished party families, villages, and towns. There is no shocker here that the cadre was weakening over time. This was clear with LDF losing Vaikkom, Taliparamba, Koothuparamba, Kundamangalam, Nadapuram, Trikkaripur, etc. Although LDF could still hold on to Palakkad, Trivandrum, Alappuzha, Thrissur, etc. UDF got back its traditional strongholds of Idukki, Kottayam, and Pathanamthitta.
The invincibility of the ever-mighty Left Cadre is just a myth. If not, why did the LDF face a big setback in the Lok Sabha and local elections? Their power has been fading for a long time. Cadre works best when LDF is not in power. Communist Parties follow a parallel governance structure known as the party. The instruments of state have successfully replaced the party as the main centre of power, whether it be Kannur, Kasaragod, Kollam, Alappuzha, etc. Earlier, the party used to control the LDF government, but for a few years, the government took over, and the party lost its relevance. Too much power for 10 years created a vacuum. The youth have also started questioning the authority.
The main reasons for LDF losses can be attributed to high anti-incumbency against the government, not just for the past 5 years, but also for 10 years. There was a strong sense of resentment and anger against the Chief Minister and the cabinet, beyond anti-incumbency. The CM's style of governance, approach, handling of the party, government, and much more. The major allegation has been regarding the adoption of PM Modi's and the BJP's playbook in running the party and the government, which was seen in a negative light.
The idea of establishing a Nava Keralam remained unpopular and not satisfying to the people at large. This was mainly due to different yatras and rallies, even though they had multiple aims was seen as lavish and unwanted spending from the exchequer. Constantly, the five years had a number of controversies, backtracking, allegations, and much more. The Sabarimala issue and the gold theft led to the dissolution of the party's Ezhava voter base.
LDF 2.0 was one of the least ideological governments in Kerala's history. There was no concrete ideological positioning, rather pure pragmatism/realpolitik/pragmatic politics. Some CPI-M members were unhappy with this and played a key role in bringing down this government. They want to restore the party to the pre-Pinarayi Vijayan era.
The LDF lost big with the upper middle class and a few sections of the lower middle class due to the changing nature of economy, rapid urbanisation as well as the demographic changes in the urban and suburban areas of Kerala. LDF has been constanlty losing corporations and municipalities for a long time.
In terms of campaigning, LDF did a splendid job, but that came at a high cost of centring the entire government on the face of one person- CM Pinarayi Vijayan, which was a double-edged sword with a single point of failure. CPIM thought that anti-incumbency could be offset by the popularity of the MLAs, but the anti-incumbency was too big to be defeated, so most of the MLAs fell. Their MLAs and ministers were largely ignored in the campaign.
Without mention, there was a strong minority consolidation which worked in favour of UDF. LDF was largely ignored by both Christian and Muslim voters, which routed the alliance in Central and Northern Kerala. The statements of Vellapally Nadeshan, polarised campaign in the state, CM's OP-ED, etc., all led to this consolidation. The Akola Ayyappa Sangamam, the failure of law and order, the changing stance in Sabarimala, and many other incidents gave the perception of a creation of Left Hindutva, where the LDF was trying to get votes of the Hindu community at the cost of minorities. This consolidation was not just due to the LDF but also due to the rising force of the BJP. This is where people clearly saw UDF as more of a credible secular alternative to LDF.
What helped UDF?
Understanding the anti-incumbency that was kicking in, UDF was pretty sure of a big victory. The alliance kept a target of 100 seats and successfully attained that as well. There was a strong working and last-minute unity within the party and alliance as a wartime front. VD Satheesan, as an opposition leader, was very good at exposing the flaws and faults of the government. He was successful in leading UDF through all the bypolls, Lok Sabha, and Local elections, keeping the party and alliance together. There was a strong sense of collective responsibility in the UDF, which helped them towards victory.
Congress was succesful in using allegations such as Sabarimala voter theft and the deal issue. Most Congress leaders who lost in 2021 stuck to their seats and worked hard to win in the constituencies whose opponents were seen as undefeatable stalwart leaders. Congress won 63 seats this time, compared to 21 seats in 2021, tripling its seats. The best example is the Pathanapuram and Kollam seats.
IUML's strength and cadre in Kozhikode and Kasaragod were also instrumental in giving a good victory to Congress in areas that they had never won in a long time. Beyond doubt, Congress's Indira Guarantees were helpful in attracting apolitical, youth, and women vote manifolding their victory. UDF brought Telangana CM Revanth Reddy to campaign and unveil their manifesto.
What worked and did not work for the BJP?
This was the first election where there was a strong tripartite contest from the BJP-led NDA side. BJP tried to focus on a handful of seats, which they called A-class seats, to win, as well as give a tripolar contest across the state. Twenty Twenty joining the NDA didn't give them as many benefits as expected, yet was a key player in several seats. BJP went ahead with three components- Moditva (Modi's popularity + Hindutva), Development and Change, and then was Christian outreach.
Many will say Christian outreach failed, but it's part of a long-term project, and it did pay off in a few seats, such as Pala and Tiruvalla. Bringing Narendra Modi to campaign and piggybacking on development paid off in bringing the NDA to the second position in two seats, which in earlier times didn't have a chance. On the visit, PM Modi raised polarising issues, such as UCC, CAA, Sabarimala, Keralam files, Munambam dispute, Dhurandhar, Votebank politics, and much more. But the FCRA issue acted like a nail in the coffin for the BJP's Christian outreach.
Victory in Chathanur was quite surprising, wherein the BJP was the biggest beneficiary of the anti-incumbency vote. Nemom and Kazhakootam were a sure shot seat, yet there was a tight fight till the end. Palakkad turned out to be a big disappointment for the BJP, which lost the seat by a whisker in 2021. Thrissur, which saw a three-sided contest and the BJP hoping to win, saw it being pushed to the In Manjeshwar, the counter-consolidation of anti-BJP votes was so much that the opponent won by a big margin of 25,000 votes; LDF's entire vote bank shifted.
Vote Share
Following is the vote share of the important alliances contesting in the election:
UDF - 46.54 %
LDF - 37.64%
NDA - 14.20%
NOTA - 0.57 %
Interesting Contests and Flips
CPI-M party forts of Trikaripur, Vamanapuram, Payannur, Vaikkom, etc. fell heavily, especially since these are the seats that they have never lost in a while. ex-Minister C Ravindranth was the candidate who won the seat by the lowest margin of 125 votes in Manalur by defeating veteran T. N. Prathapan. K Kunhalikuty won by 85,000 votes, the highest margin in history. Generally, such numbers are figures for the Lok Sabha Election.
BJP has won in Kazhakootam, Nemom, and Chathanoor by 428, 4978, and 4398, each, respectively. This is a big victory, rising from 0 seats in 2021. Also, this victory comes by defeating two senior CPI-M leaders and ministers, Kadakampally Surendran and V Sivankutty, respectively. CM Pinarayi Vijayan trailed in his party citadel of Dharmadom for six rounds to win at a margin of 20,000 votes, down from 50,000 votes last time. Opposition leader V D Satheesan won by a margin of 20,000 votes, down from 21,000 votes in 2021. Chandy Oomen, Uma Thomas, and Aryadan Shoukath, who won in the bypolls, won this time by more than 50,000 votes in their respective constituencies.
Heard of district sweep? A single party winning an entire district. Heard of a regional sweep? Yes, UDF cleaned swept Ernakulam, Kottayam, and Idukki combined, which is the heart of Central Kerala.
What next?
Nothing is permanent; everything is temporary. Kerala's bipolar nature and the trend of alternating governments continue. The more united the parties become and work for their goal, the more they can taste victory. Opposition can also play a key role in shaping and changing politics. It is not just one part or the ruling party that controls the narratives. It is very important that parties in power introspect and respect the mandate carefully without being dominant and authoritarian.
The talks for the CM position have already started. VD Satheesan, Ramesh Chennithala, and K C Venugopal are the top contenders. IUML has a big credit for giving a grand victory to UDF. It is likely that they will seek a deputy CM position and more berths in the cabinet. With a dozen ministers seniors MLAs and big guns losing, the eyes are on who will be the opposition leader and what will be the direction of LDF...will outdated ideas of à´ª്à´°à´¤ിà´·േà´§ം, സമരം, ഹർത്à´¤ാൽ, continue to be part of LDF's core politics, or new age methods of social media, PR, youth mobilisation, etc. will dominate over? Some prospective opposition leaders- KN Balagopal, Muhammad Riyas, K Rajan, G R Anil, P Prasad, or maybe someone else?
UDF will continue to dominate the urban areas while they become more unfair for LDF in the coming years. In cities like Kozhikode and Trivandrum, it is the BJP that is taking the space of the declining Left Front. BJP has become an important and inevitable part of Kerala politics since this election. Will BJP continue its tirade in Kerala, adding more votes and seats across the state, or will its growth stagnate? Parties like Twenty-Twenty will likely rethink their alliance, while traditional BJP-RSS factions will see Christian outreach as the dilution of their Hindutva ideology.
It is very interesting to see what the future of the two parties in Kerala- CPI(M) and Kerala Congress (M). Both are cadre parties whose strength is still strong and active. What will happen to the CPI(M)? When left lost power in West Bengal, in 5 years the cadre collapsed and largely transferred to TMC in urban areas & voter base in rural areas to BJP. That may not happen in Kerala yet, but who knows? Whether they disintegrate or will they rebuild the party in a different way is yet to be seen. For KC(M), their leadership is weak and won no seat they had contested. They had lost their home citadel of Pala. What awaited the party? a merger with KC(J)?
LDF 2.0 is one of the least ideological governments. There was no concrete Ideological positioning, rather pure pragmatism/realpolitik/pragmatic politics. Some CPI-M members are unhappy with this. They want to restore the party to the pre-Pinarayi Vijayan era. So if he loses, then likely you can see the party opting for a leader who is closer to a figure like VS Achuthanandan. Or if there is an LDF 3.0, then likely a pragmatic person will continue the same.
Conclusion
A tight season that was closely fought, constrained by a short campaign period and historic in multiple senses, is finally over. The verdict has been decisive. 100+ out of 140 is not just a surprise but also a magic. This victory was possible through a massive 9-10% vote share difference, which is rare.
The big task is just yet to start, i.e., keeping the trust and hopes of the people and paying them back. As a voter, your duty isn’t over yet. Whenever possible, you need to follow up on various issues, their work, progress, etc. These are some basic things that you can do aside from whatever you are doing now. Also, try to focus on local constituency-based issues, the history of constituents, the track record of MLAs, the amount of funds allocated, etc. The future of the state is in the hands of 140 MLAs, most of them being new faces.
Comments
Post a Comment