The Successes of BJP in the Past Decade and How It Continues to Be Invincible

Here is an article by combining an excerpt from the Book- How BJP Wins by Prashant Sha and the authors' analysis of BJP's performance in recent times. This book is covering varied perspectives on the BJP and how it has consistently worked in the past decade to be the number 1 or the default party in the country.

The BJP through the Modi wave swept the 2014 elections primarily through, Gujarat Model. The idea of Modi's victory came not only from the Gujarat model. It has already been talking but one of the primary reasons that gave BJP the momentum was the failure of UPA II and the shambolic governance of the Congress Party, the allegations of corruption under the UPA, Hindutva-related issues like Article 370, Ram Mandir and the Anti-Pak rhetoric of the BJP. In 2019, anti-terror efforts such as surgical strikes and a muscular policy against Pakistan has worked alongside effective governance compared to the 2009-14 UPA misgovernance instability due to coalition. This resulted in more seats for BJP as a whole not just NDA.

Why people preferred Modi or BJP?

Most of BJP support comes from Upper Hindus and also largely from Middle Class which is largely religiously devoted. This support is so because Modi and BJP are believed to provide Stability, Order and Progress. This is essential for Businesses, the Economy and Society which is valuable to both Upper Castes and Upper Class. Then comes ideologically committed voters of the BJP which has always been the core of BJP-RSS for the longest time. They vote mainly for Hindutva issues, ideological issues like UCC, 370, Ram mandir, nationalism, etc. and for anti-Pak rhetoric. BJP has always been a party that sets the agenda and all the other parties played by it.

Unlike in the past, when BJP was seen as an upper-class Hindu party restricted to the Hindi heartland, BJP is now an inclusive broad Hindu party. It has also started getting votes from OBCs and SCs, like never before. In certain regions, BJP is also beginning to get votes from tribal communities as well. Hence an ideologically committed voter will continue to vote for the BJP alongside including more communities in the fold.

The BJP era also saw the rise of ultra-nationalism. BJP and Modi highlight how differently it deals with Pakistan than in the past mainly from, UPA times when terror attacks used to occur. This is also directly associated with their ideological and political which is directly associated with issues like Article 370.

Modi Hawa

In 2019 a peculiar fact we can see is that all major communities except Muslims supported Modi. As we spoke, BJP is now the pan-India and broader Hindu party than before. This idea has been a post-recent phenomenon, Modi's brand of Hindutva has always been at the forefront since 2002, post-Gujarat riots where he is seen as a Hindu Hriday Samrat. As a man of RSS, he has tried to cultivate the image of a firebrand yet charismatic leader.

Through the Gujarat Model, he rose up the ranks of the BJP and reached national politics. Even developing the BJP in Gujarat wouldn't have been possible without the Modi-Shah duo which has been the major talking point of Indian politics for the past decade. They have stood unbeaten in multiple elections, even which they have been able to cultivate BJP in several states where they had no foothold before.

The main attractions for BJP and Modi have been the situation and context at hand. The clean image of Modi which is non-corrupt and a charismatic leader who wants to transform the country or even instill in a change for people. In 2014, he was able to give hope and that has not changed much but given that he has an undisputed reputation and is the frontrunner for upcoming elections as well. Even when his decisions had to face a backlash like Demonetisation, his approval rating stood intact, and at most times, people blame themselves and not Modi for the same. People believe Modi's intentions are right and will give him more terms as long as people have trust in him, which till today remains formidable for a third term.

Most of his speeches are very much interactive and appeal to the audience. He puts the onus upon the audience and does not just restrict all the deeds to the government. He puts everyone in a binary or dichotomy, which indirectly favours him. From a pro-rich and pro-business in 2014, he has become popular as a people person through pro-poor schemes. Even today, he has rivalled everyone through the excellent welfare policy primarily during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence his regime was able to overcome the negative perception which came up during the second wave.

The lack of alternatives and divided opposition has given a massive boost to BJP and Modi which keeps him winning. Rahul Gandhi in his leadership wasn't able to push himself and create formidable opposition. Also, during the UPA tenure he held no post in government and also was never the opposition leader. He missed all the opportunities to match with Modi. After the 2019 elections, where he had to support his party, all he did was resign.

Shah’s Sanghatan

BJP needs Sangh before the election and Sangh needs BJP after the election. RSS also referred to as Sangh is a gigantic machinery which plays a crucial role in the success of the BJP in every state and national election. Modi rose up the ranks of RSS before being the CM and PM. The same is true for Shah. When Modi does the front-stage work, Amit Shah does the backstage work. Modi-Shah duo hence is a powerful two-power duo. Shah from 2013 to 2019 as the BJP President led the Sanghtan or the cadre and expanded it multi folds and led BJP to victory two times.

Amit Shah's proximity with Modi starting from his role in Gujarat BJP in Ahmedabad indicates the massive rapport the duo has. Shah worked with ABVP before entering BJP and elections in Gujarat. He is credited with the victory of the BJP in Ahmedabad. He was appointed General Secretary for UP and later elevated to National President in 2014.

Increase membership in UP and elsewhere- Missed Call Membership policy- A key to victory. Roots in districts which didn’t have a BJP foothold. Role of social media and WhatsApp groups controlled from Lucknow. Workers were given training in mobilisation and social media. In an Election, BJP-Sangh fights the election, while for Congress, it is the candidates who fight. Congress victory is linked to a candidate than BJP. BJP has followed a similar to CPIM which is the Cadre model.

BJP recovery in this decade

After a big loss in 2004 and later in 2009, BJP was brought back alive when it was decaying by Shah and Modi. Senior leaders are uncomfortable with Amit Shah, but support him because he guarantees victory. BJP in UP also understood the problems with SP and BSP which BJP never wants to repeat. From ruling a handful of states, BJP came to power in the centre in 2014 with a full-fletched majority. Similarly, in 2019, it extended its majority further demolishing the opposition.

Micromanagement

Shah's motto is to sleep less and work more. Shah does the planning of meetings and rallies. He also spearheads the work of various smaller and sub-groups. It was never just about the overall work that Shah was doing but also about micro-managing. Shah after taking over as the President, expanded the scope of the BJP as a party. He followed a three-point plan, to attract OBC, Youth, and Women- Three core BJP voters after 2014. He started to mobilise people for rallies and provide them with transport and food. During the 2017 UP elections- Gunda Raj, law and order were the issues raised by BJP while SP was focused on development. In UP, BJP brought leaders from other parties- Rita Joshi and Jitin Prasada in order to expand BJP’s power in different districts. For BJP, local businessmen and people support them financially unlike SP, BSP, and INC.

Social Engineering

BJP started to get caste groups together such as OBC-Dalits. Hence, SP catered only to Yadav while BSP to Jatavs, hence there was a chance for BJP to look into other communities. Communalism was associated with SP to Muslims. So, BJP could use that anger of Hindu communities. But BJP was not able to openly embrace Hindutva hence it used nationalism than a communal outlook.

An RSS man Bansal enters the picture and tells that since 2013, BJP has focussed on 60% of UP's population neglecting Dalits, Yadavs and Muslims which paved the way for their extraordinary victory in 2017. This model was replicated in Maharashtra with the Marathas and Jats in Haryana. Strategy to have a coalition against the privileged class- maha, hary; hence it can easily expand. BJP wins from non-Marathas. Ignore the dominant community and focus on the rest. In Bihar, it failed. Shah appointed caretakers in every district of Maharashtra after 2014. It lost allies since then but single-handedly won the state. Similarly in Haryana too. It went beyond the urban centres.

BJP didn’t deploy any CM face in UP because of established leaders like Akhilesh, Mayavati etc. Hence the idea of elections would have become Presidential. Comprising caste equations, Modi’s name would be the currency. Muzaffarnagar riots upset people with parties RLD and SP which put Jats vs Muslims which was an advantage for BJP. In addition, it added more OBCs to the voter list and got their votes. The “BHIM” app was used as a tool to attract. Lastly, BJP was successful in creating Hindu Unity across castes.

RSS- Source, Supplement, Shadow

Modi is the man of RSS. It was always against Vyakti puja or a person-centric campaign. But Modi has changed it. RSS is happy with the Hindutva-based policies of Modi. Similarly, Modi is proud to be Hindu and wears it on the sleeve. BJP has used Ads, campaigns and propaganda which is there. Double-engine govt is extraordinary rhetoric used by BJP to win more state elections.

Sangh is a silent player as it does not publicise its work but remains to be the backbone of the BJP. Quiet door-to-door campaigning. RSS realises the use of Ganga and Varanasi helps to reduce secularisation and give increase Hindu consciousness which was absent for a long time. Hindu Consolidation is now a reality which was RSS's dream for a very long time. Unlike popular perception, RSS is modern with a tech team for elections like 2014 through extensive use of social media, everything was monitored from Gandhinagar. The role of Ram Madhav who gave training to karyakarthas.

Hindu-Muslim

BJP utilises lies and propaganda to polarise elections and gain from it. Muslims historically vote for Congress and SP which paved the way for branding them as Muslim parties. BJP hence wanted to consolidate the Hindu vote. Slogans such as- Ekta ki shaan Sangeet Som, and Hindu ki Pehchan Sangeet Som were popular he was involved in the Muzzafarnagar riots, a fight between Jats and Muslims who had to leave their houses, but they were victimised. In 2017, vast regions of western UP voted for BJP due to riots being the core issue. Other polarising rhetorics included the Need for Shamsan for every Khabaristan, the Need for electricity for Diwali not just for Eid; Work has only happened for Muslims under SP; Kairana will be the new Kashmir etc. All such rhetorics have aided communal polarisation openly which drives voters.

The Love Jihad and increasing Muslim population conspiracy has been used all over again even in the most recent Karnataka election. This is also why the UP government created the Anti-Romeo squad which tried to harass young couples. In the Bihar election in 2015, Amit Shah claimed that Crackers will be burst in Pakistan if Opposition wins, and tried to make it an India vs Pakistan election.

Another polarising narrative has been how SP was made the problem because they work for minorities and not you. KASAB was a name given to Congress, SP, and BSP by Amit Shah to polarise the ground and show they are supporting Muslims and getting support from Pakistan. This period also led to the Death of Secularism in India as Part of the Discourse.

Law and Order issue is highlighted by BJP in most of the state governments. In UP it used Gunda Raj jibe against SP while in other places the aim was against the Congress. In 2022, bulldozers and various other tactics gave a strongman image to Yogi who made law and order the key issue of the election.

Beyond Heartland

BJP has expanded much beyond the Hindi heartland today. BJP is no more the party of Hindi, Hindu and Hindustan. Ram Madhav has to be credited for negotiating with PDP and forging an alliance in Jammu and Kashmir in a state where BJP was not even present.

BJP rightly reached out to the disappointed ex-Congress leader Hemanth Bishwas Sharma. He had issues with CM Gogoi and was sidelined within the Congress party. He was a massive asset to the BJP as he had a lot of stakes in several NorthEastern states which got converted to saffron soon after. Months after that, AGP in Assam aligned with BJP and they won the election. The core issue of immigration got converted to Hindu-Muslim and BJP took advantage of the situation. BJP got Biren Singh from Manipur which demolished the Congress party and secured power. BJP got the single largest party status and later formed the govt.

In Maharastra from being junior to Shiv Sena, BJP took over by dividing Shiv Sena. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP took in Jyotiraditya Scindia and several MLAs. In Goa, BJP made allies despite Congress being the largest party. In Karnataka, BJP demolished the JDS-Congress alliance. In Bihar, BJP is the number one party while in Haryana, BJP's alliance with JJP was successful in keeping Congress out of power. Except for Karnataka, BJP is the top party in all these states.

Future of BJP

The question of BJP and its future looks quite promising. From the ashes of 2004 and 2009, BJP rose not only due to the mistakes of the Congress party but also due to the efforts and dedication of the entire RSS-BJP combination led by the Modi-Shah duo. Even today it has become the world's largest party and is also expected to win an unchallenged third term in 2024 elections. Besides a few losses in 2018 and 2023, BJP has only seen an upward trend. The expansion of the BJP beyond the Hindi heartland shows the extensive acceptability and legitimacy the party enjoys.

Balancing Caste and Social Equations has always been the biggest electoral challenge in India. Till now, BJP has been successful in doing so, but to what extent this will continue without an issue is yet to be seen. Caste is still strong in India and there are a lot of caste-based parties in India which do possess an existential challenge to the BJP.

Moreover, the massive challenge for BJP in governing the country would be the fine balance of Hindutva and Modernisation of India. It's a contradiction as BJP as a party in itself is based on the idea of Hindutva and the nationalism it believes in. If the people of India's (or at least the BJP's vote banks') economic prosperity is not taken care of, then it will create more problems for the party. As long as BJP's vote bank is happy, BJP looks invincible. The death of Secularism as part of political discourse is one of the most important achievements in which the Modi-led BJP was successful in doing so. The slogan of double engine govt is also one of the most intriguing aspects of how BJP has sold the idea of electing a puppet state government. This aspect is set to continue in upcoming elections as well.

Conclusion

Whether you agree or not with BJP's ideology or its policies there is no denying the fact that BJP today is invincible. From nearing death and instability in 2004 and 2009, BJP within a short span of time becomes the first party in four decades to secure a majority which is remarkable. Indeed this can be seen as a miracle by the Modi-Shah duo. No doubt BJP is all set to take up new challenges which will decide its fate in upcoming years. Till then the situation is largely in favour of the party.

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