On June 3rd 2022, an important result came in the Politics of Kerala, it had nothing to change the state socially, politically or even decide the future of the state. Yet, there has been an important result which has shook the political landscape in the commercial landscape of Kerala, ie Kochi. On one hand, some people underestimated their own strength while others overestimated the outcome, where did the change happen?
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Here are a few things which I think whether it's political parties, leaders, media and even subject experts got it wrong in a single bypoll of a singled out constituency. In the last article, we discussed the hype involved in the election, and why ministers, MLAs and media are involved too much. LDF expected to be victorious with less than 5000 votes margin, while the Media predicted a tight fight, UDF cut down their expectation to less than 10,000 votes. With the declaration of voting, the percentage dipped below 70% which alarmed UDF because voting in city areas has gone down which had traditionally favoured it. When the results were out UDF's margin of victory exceeded 25,00 which is a record in the constituency, defeating PT Thomas's margin of 14,000 in 2021, 20,000 in 2016 and lastly 22,000 in 2011.
Problems
This is purely my opinion and my view from information extracted anywhere. The actual reports will be raised and available to political parties and also the official voting patterns. I'm not going to touch upon those and instead focus on public discussions and media discourse.
Underestimation of Sympathy Votes
Given that re-election of Thrikkakara was because of benevolent leader P T Thomas's demise. Thus his wife replaced him as the candidate this time, and as expected she will receive a lot of support and thus sympathy votes. LDF underestimated this and talked as if his charisma and working for the constituency was an eyewash and people will support them. There is no doubt that sympathy votes mattered, UDF knew it well, and thus the candidate from that family.
Overestimation of LDF's strength and power
If I tell you that one UDF stronghold, with extensive working for twenty days and that constituency can be toppled, you may laugh at it. But that is what LDF believed to do so, by bringing the entire state party machinery, LDF MLAs, cabinet ministers and even the CM to be present for days just to ensure victory. It doesn't happen that way, it was an extreme Top-Down approach and it has failed. The ruling party failed to understand that even if campaigning was strong, the structure of the demographics remained the same, 20 days is too few to influence an 11-year long history. If the ground and field workers were working for say six months for this election, maybe LDF could have expected a better show. During the 2019 elections, when Pala elected an LDF MLA, it was decades' worth of effort of LDF that resulted in it, also it was the fieldwork, Thrikkakara must undergo a grassroots change for the same.
Just as 70% below news came, LDF was overexcited and underestimated Congress's strength in Corporation areas and also its own strength in Thrikkakara municipality. There was no way Thrikkakara municipality results would have over-ridden the corporation votes. Expected splitting of votes within the opposition and adding rebel leaders to its fold didn't work, because Congress leaders didn't have proper vote banks.
Better campaigning doesn't mean better results
Elections aren't decided on the campaign days, especially not because your house is being visited by a minister or an MLA. There are multiple factors, LDF candidate was professional but lacked political experience and even less than the UDF candidate who can at least flaunt their family of PT Thomas identity. So, development was the issue, but it is not enough to influence voters. Most seats in Kerala have had a fixed pattern of voting for a very long time and will continue to remain so unless something extraordinary happens. There is no doubt that CPIM and LDF had a very organised and effective system of campaigning and many parties cannot match the kind of performance.
Unlike popular notions, people's idea of whom they will vote for is not formed within a day or a week, it's a process and usually stays on for a very long time, especially in a well-established constituency. Campaigning doesn't bring any difference. A very small portion of undecided voters is the ones who are targeted by campaigns or directly by political parties, that too, their influence on swinging elections is very limited to only selective seats. Thrikkakara for that matter or any seat in Ernakulam is not a swing seat. So, campaigning heavily and thinking people can be influenced is a farce. It is a safe seat of Congress.
Personality factor
Both candidates including that of the BJP were very well behaved and didn't use much rhetoric. Although we can see Uma Thomas often using PT Thomas' name, to attract and gain sympathy which is a good strategy. Despite not having much political experience other than of her husband, Uma Thomas should have got more weight in terms of personality. Also, for the bad luck of the Doctor, maybe people don't believe that being a good doctor can represent us in the assembly. That also must have gone into the hands of Uma Thomas.
Twenty-Twenty
In 2021, Twenty Twenty contested Thrikkakara and secured 13,000 votes. In this election, they didn't content and it has largely brought back the UDF votes it had lost in 2021. Thus, we know Twenty Twenty's presence largely benefited LDF and this time, LDF hopes went down the drain. But it is certain that 13,000 votes wouldn't have decided the winner. Did Twenty Twenty didn't deliberately back off from contesting? Maybe or Maybe not.
Congress
Most of the Congress leaders themselves were shocked by low polling showing signs of discontent in the minds of the people. They didn't believe their own electorate which was backing them for a very long time. Their lack of confidence also led the media to create the hype that UDF may be losing.
Voting up for Opposition doesn't mean something less than a ruling party MLA
The LDF campaigned saying that they need 100 seats. There is nothing wrong in opposition getting strong. People know that, so the govt. the idea that only a ruling party MLA can give development and benefit is false and highly antidemocratic. Such an idea should be discouraged in our elections.
BJP
Portraying itself as a strong third front, and believing there is a tricorned contest lost big this time. It also lost the deposit. There was even a big feeling that the BJP will win a lot of upper caste votes and also the conservative Christain votes, eating into the votebank of UDF and indirectly helping LDF, which never happened. Even tactics like actively supporting and bringing P C George failed. It was the slide of campaigning, just like I said about campaigning, he cannot make any difference and obvious that people don't agree with the BJP's style of politics and George's communal remarks.
KRail
The UDF is actively claiming that this election is a verdict against KRail, which I don't think is true. Given that this is already a UDF stronghold, there is no scope for keeping this election as a mark of judgement for people's opinions. If such an opinion has to be drawn, then it should have been in a statewide election. Despite that there might exist some anger and anxiety on the project, it is possible that some people have opted for UDF for this, but to say that UDF's win and LDF's loss are merely a product of KRail is far from the truth.
Overthinking the Professional influence
There was a popular notion that Thrikkakara needs a Professional as an MLA to address people's concerns which were mostly perpetrated by the LDF side, even Media got into this narrative. Given that Infopark and Startup Mission etc have a lot of migrants staying in Thrkikkara or even staying in the place as working in various companies are immigrants and they may not be there as voters in Thrikkakara rather elsewhere. Thus those who may support a couple of pro-urban, pro-business situations may not be a decisive factor.
Media
Although they largely understood the issues and discussed all topics, there was certainly an overhype of LDF wresting the seat and UDF giving up the seat, which is over and under estimation respectively.
Pollsters
Massive failure to give a clear-cut picture and also the failure to provide grassroots feelings among the voters.
What this election result is not?
Often knowingly or unknowingly we tend to overemphasise a point and also believe that it has a lot of implications, even without having any proof of the same. Firstly, this election doesn't reflect upon the power dynamics of the state. Secondly, this election in no way is reflective that LDF is becoming weak, there is anti-incumbency and it might lose the next election. Thirdly, there won't be any change in the Assembly's stature and is just a return to December 2021 status. No way Twenty Twenty or BJP would have helped CPIM win the election and it's a misnomer.
This result is in no way a referendum on Silverline and it is absurd for political parties to claim that people don't support this project as the opposition informs. This result doesn't make Congress anymore stronger at the state or national level, this is merely a morale boost to the dying party and can temporarily stop its exit of leaders from the party fold. This result is not reflective of Congress winning more seats anywhere in Kerala, National level or elsewhere. The central leadership is in distress and also is witnessing a lot of people exiting the party and joining other parties.
How can we move from here?
It is certain that mistakes may happen, and it's possibly rare too. In Thrikkakara, even though many pollsters said UDF is winning got the margin wrong and also believed that the fight was close. Political parties, they need to introspect and come up with long-term strategies than a plan that lasts a few days. LDF grassroots should start working right now for upcoming elections, while UDF's excellent work in Thrikkakara should be expanded across the state and give LDF a tough fight. Both govt and opposition are equally important and one's victory is no less than the other.
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