The By-election Thrikkakara Assembly segment in Kerala is here. After the demise of P T Thomas, MLA the seat is again up for re-election after a year. It should be a standard procedure or an ordinary by-poll but what's the hype on the media? Why are channels running 24x7 coverage on the election to a tiny assembly segment which has always voted in the same way? Why are ministers and MLAs from all sides spending extra time campaigning? What will be the impact of the elections? If not for results, what will be the implications of the election?
Answers to all the questions will be included here. It has been a long time since we have discussed Kerala Politics. As discussed in 2021, the current Kerala assembly is over dominated by LDF, with one short of a century in an assembly of 140. The opposition UDF currently has 40 seats with one seat up for re-election. The new political question is will LDF hit a century or will the opposition hold on to its safe seat. Will the third front gain something or will BJP try to outsmart traditional rivals?
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| Credits- English Mathrubhumi |
Relevance and Importance of Thrikkakara
Geography
Thrikkakara is located in the Ernakulam District and is an important suburb of Kochi City and part of the Greater Cochin area. It is a municipality and also houses the district capital Kakkanad. It has important landmarks and IT parks notably Kerala Startup Mission, Smart City and Infopark. The assembly segment is highly urban and encloses important parts of Kochi city as well. The most crowded regions like Kaloor, Palarivattom, Vytilla, and Stadium, all fall in the constituency. The region is also affected by Kochi Metro Phase I, the Water metro and the upcoming Phase II. The region has also seen a lot of infrastructural projects like the Palarivattom flyover, Vytilla flyover, Edapally flyover, and also the upcoming Krail-Silverline project. Thrikkakara is bounded by Ernakulam, Thripunithra, Kunnathunadu and Kalamassery constituencies, thus having an urban-rural blend.
Politics
For a long time, a major portion of the segment was part of the Thripunithra constituency. Traditionally almost all the urban seats in Ernakulam districts have gone with UDF and have been their extreme safe seats in the state. The constituency was formed only in 2011 and all the elections held since then as expected have favoured UDF. It was only in 2021 that Kalamassery and Kunnathunadu voted for LDF. Earlier in 2016, Thripunithra went to LDF only to return back to UDF in 2021. This seat has been home to various stalwart Congress leaders including the late P T Thomas, MLA. If the LDF manages to win the seat, it is equivalent to a big electoral barge of the LDF into the traditional stronghold of UDF and a massive dent of Kochi in favour of the LDF. Over 22 wards of Kochi corporation the entire Thrikkakara Municipality and several small panchayats make up the constituency. LDF ex-MLA Sebastian Paul alleged that Thrikkakara was formed as a result of gerrymandering Congress votes.
P T Thomas, MLA
He has been an active politician, an environmentalist and a beloved MLA of the land passed away due to illness. The bypolls will be an examination of P T Thomas' political battle, his policies and performance in the constituency and how it will be taken forward in the coming years.
The political relevance of the contest
An election is all about politics, thus the election will not only have social or geographical consequences but will have a lot of political consequences. Apart from that, there are a lot of other reasons which make it a politically relevant contest.
Government's perspective
The government is now stuck at 99, it is one short of a century. PT Thomas MLA has been a vocal critic of govt. and his loss is felt in an assembly where there is lesser and weaker opposition. Getting a century and having a ruling party MLA can fastrack policy making in Thrikkakara is what the government is looking for now. This is the only way, it can enter more seats in the district as well for effective delivery. The candidate chosen is a professional who has the ability to cater to policy making for professionals and the urban class.
Most of the policies of the Government have been getting controversial in the second term. Now, what govt. needs approval from people or at least a signal of change in strategy. The most controversial has been the K-Rail. Thrikkakara is in the centre of the and also the centre of the Silverline project; winning here is how the government thinks it will get approval for the project. Although, given that opposition is strong and the chance of losing is high, it is reluctant to say that this election will be a referendum on the Silverline Project.
Currently, the entire media attention, government machinery, and ministers MLAs are barging into this tiny urban enclave like ever before. This has been how BJP used to fight elections in many states. CM has been in the constituency for a week residing solely trying for a victory. He is spearheading the campaign like never before, especially in a place where LDF leaders are hardly seen.
Opposition's perspective
Losing one who has been a strong voice, a person who studies a given issue properly and raises a finger against the govt. has been a big problem. numerically opposition is closed to 40 seats and it needs one more to make it 41 and sense continue the tirade. Fixing govt at 99, will show the opposition's ability that even they have influence and resist the active government machinery that is working in Thrikkakara right now. Picking the right issues can help the opposition win easily as it's their safe seat. The question is if it is a loss, how will it affect the opposition's performance and will it be able to bounce back next election? or has the opposition continued to be on the wrong side of the match. Currently, it's the Opposition leader who is also from the same district who is leading the opposition's war.
LDF perspective
After a massive win in 2021, the ruling LDF now has the opportunity to add one more MLA to its fold, that too in a UDF stronghold. Unlike the lousy campaign, it does in Ernakulam with lousy candidates in non-winnable seats, this time LDF is giving all it can. Besides burning issues of development, and political issues, LDF has come straight forward in onground campaigning by the entire ruling cabinet under the leadership of CM and all the MLAs in the state. The current game is to defeat UDF and bring a new era to an unwinnable constituency.
K Rail and Silverline had been the prime issue, which later was diluted to other issues, primarily local issues, debates on the candidate, etc. LDF is now trying new ways to fight the growing opposition in a new way. Winning the bypoll is essential for the government to keep up its momentum to win people's confidence and also prepare new strategies for the next elections. Dr Jo Joseph as a candidate is a surprising figure as a practising professional doctor who later joined politics and sought a new career.
IT industries have started a lot of development in the last few years thus. Such people have supported a professional as a candidate. A lot of youth IT Professionals, and aspirational urban people have supported K-Rail and Silverline Project. Unlike previous times, LDF has made a gamble in unveiling a professional to cater to urban voters which have never happened before. Although the majority of these IT professionals have been only from the immigrant population, thus they may not even be on the voter list and hence it can significantly affect LDF's expectations.
The Machinery is trying to reach out to each and every voter believing it's their turn right now. Trying maximum to get a lot of swing votes.
UDF perspective
After 2021, Congress-led UDF hasn't made any electoral recovery. Even at the national level, Congress is restricted to just two states, both of which are going for elections next year, BJP is way ahead in ousting them in their last two states and for a Congress mukt Bharat. In that sense, UDF should start getting to work, to win at least a chunk of Lok Sabha seats from Kerala and later for 2026 assembly elections, in order to capture back one of UDF's winnable states Kerala. The fight is going to be very hard. As discussed, in 2020 and 2021, LDF stormed into several UDF fortress namely Konni, Vattiyoorkavu, Aruvikkara, Trivandrum main, Kalamassery etc. So, fighting to keep Thrikkakara would be tough as well as essential for survival as well as the revival.
Being their traditional area of influence, Congress has been trying its level best to tackle govt, with state and local issues. The main issue raised by the opposition has been on Krail and Silverline as it will directly pass through the constituency. The best it has been trying to do has been to fixate this election as a referendum on Krail. They know that, given they have an upper hand in the region, it can easily claim its victory as success against its K-Rail opposition forcing the LDF to backtrack on the project. On some of the local issues, UDF is facing a tough challenge as both Municipality and MLA have been opposed to multiple projects in the region.
The candidate UDF has fielded is Uma Thomas, the wife of late MLA and a fairly good gamble trying to experiment with a person who hasn't had any strong position of power as well as the shadow of PT Thomas as well as garner as much as sympathy votes. The candidate from multiple media sources has been able to garner a lot of women's support. Given the strength of UDF here along with its traditional votes, if polled correctly, it would be a bit easier to push back against LDF.
There has been a massive outflow of leaders from the district in the past few weeks, mostly based on the internal tussle as well as the candidature. UDF has been keeping the name and word of PT Thomas, again and again, to keep the sentiments alive. The question still remains, is Uma Thomas the best candidate that UDF could come out with?
Janapaksham perspective
With the entry of Aravind Kejriwal to Kizhakambalam in a rally, it's clear that AAP looks to enter Kerala by allying with Twenty Twenty. Although they won't be contesting this time, rather they will consider their formal entry from the next election. Traditionally in the 2020 and 2021 elections, Twenty Twenty's presence has affected only one single alliance ie. UDF and the one benefitted from one single alliance- LDF.
Janapaksham is a newly formed alliance and earlier even planned to have a contest but later withdrew from doing so. They have been highly critical of both sides but have always damaged the UDF. So it is a relief for UDF that Janapaksham is not contesting. Even if they were contesting, it would have been very hard for them to give a competitive contest against the established political parties and also given such a partisan politics we have in Kerala.
BJP perspective
Have always been in third place yet, holding on to its core votes and then maybe energising its base for the local elections should be the BJP's ability. The anti-LDF votes will split between UDF too, so BJP maybe not make much difference on the map, it will totally depend on their long term strategy, given that BJP has been making a lot of progress in various urban pockets in and around the city, who knows the next local elections if BJP can get more councillors given that large areas of Kochi Corporation also falls in the constituency. The party has been on the backfoot on rising fuel prices yet, veteran and experienced A N Radhakrishanan is doing its level best with BJP machinery and also of unofficial media reports which might fetch BJP some orthodox Christain votes. This is the new strategy BJP is trying and will be trying from now on. A mix of Hindu and Christain votes is essential for BJP to succeed in the new premise. Many media reports had suggested PC George- as a speculative candidate for NDA, but due to the recent controversies, even that's on a roadblock. Given that he has received the bail, he was on the campaign for BJP utilising anti-govt and pro-BJP rhetoric. He is now the new star of the BJP. In the election, BJP has given its level best providing a three-cornered contest in Thrikkakara.
People's perspective
Who will represent them? Who will replace PT Thomas? Who can bring in development? Whether the MLA should be from the opposition or from the ruling side? Should we support KRail? All these questions need better answers and people are waiting to give their answers. The vote is up on May 31 and the results will be out on June 3rd.
Policy perspective
For a long time, Thrikkakara has been under UDF influence. There were a lot of policies and developmental projects that hit on a roadblock. A lot of leaders from all sides showed that the municipality lacks a proper drinking water project, similarly, P T Thomas had been anti-KIIFB and hence a lot of projects weren't implemented. As per LDF, they want a ruling MLA to speed up the existing projects. The main issues in Thrikakara other than infrastructure are a traffic problem, better connectivity to all parts of the city, frequency of buses, water logging etc. Another important golden feather in LDF's hand is the completion of the water metro but the backlash is on the lagging Kakkanad extension. So has UDF-LDF sync gone out of hand? Has the centre not yet given a full green signal to its phase II? Has the state govt failed the opposition elected constituencies?
Media perspective
Never has media given such importance to a byelection. Given most of Kerala's media is based in an urban-centric, media can influence a lot of urban voters and opinions. For a month or more media got unlimited content followed by a lot of politicians to interact with. It's after a long time Kerala media woke up to such an electoral opportunity. They are telecasting the election as if there is a bypoll in ten or more seats.
Implications
As discussed above, all sides are eager for everyone and it is significant for all sides to more or less equally but the most important implication is for Congress- it's a question of survival or revival. Given the immediate lack of on-field experience both candidates even if they will have to go the extra mile to cater to their voters.
Who may be the winner?
Given traditionally this seat has been favouring UDF, it has the edge. Especially given that UDF has a lot of strong bases and a consistent vote bank. LDF is looking for a lot of swing, new voters, youth, and working class and professional votes which is yet to be seen if that will work. No doubt that UDF is having a very hard time on their turf and chances are that the margin of victory even if the seat goes to UDF will be lesser.
Is the hype needed?
The important question is whether there is a need for too much media and government attention. You can say you need more information, you need to stay informed too. For making this article I had to refer to over hundreds of videos, and a lot of media coverage so it's good that we have good coverage. But, the government and its ministers are more involved in elections more, this was the same model followed by BJP at the centre. Similarly, the media is more into this and covering a lot of other issues, which will force you to ask a lot of questions. The government is here to stay, numerically it won't affect the government or power, nor is there something so special in this constituency which is very important or so significant for the state at large.
What do think about the hype? If you're a voter from Thrikkakara, let us know your views on who is winning and the policies you would like to see from the new representative.
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