Amidst the Russia-Ukraine war, we can take a break and look at Indian Politics. This shows how amazing and impactful Indian Politics is. Ten days back we could see the results of Elections to five states being declared. The results as discussed sometime before will have a massive impact on politics. All the five states big or small which went to elections have their own peculiarities. Also, this verdict has broken the record in all five states! Here let's look into what the results are communicating about politics right now and beyond.
Uttarakhand
The incumbent BJP government came back to power despite massive anti-incumbency and also the party had changed the Chief Minister of the state three times. The Congress party could only score half the seats BJP had. This was the state Congress had the best chance because, from 2002 onwards, governments kept alternating between Congress and BJP.
UP
After a long period of time, an incumbent government came back to power. BJP fought well in 2017 and now in 2022, it kept its hold in the state. The opposition was divided and decimated. SP put out a strong fight but that was not enough to deter the BJP chariot.
Punjab
A long-standing bastion of the Akali Dal and the Congress party fell to a party that was started less than ten years back based in Delhi. Aam Aadmi Party tsunami destroyed all-important heavyweights across the party lines. This is a clear indication of massive distrust in the system and a seek for change. AAP swept 66 out of 69 seats in Punjab's largest region of Malwa.
Manipur
Once a massive fortress of the Congress party in the Northeast, Manipur for the first time gave a full majority to BJP. In 2017 Congress was the single largest party but couldn't form the government. Later BJP was successful in poaching the leaders of Congress.
Goa
It is the most peculiar contest this time. This was one of the closely contested elections with a lot of parties contesting at the same time. TMC came all the way from Bengal and AAP came from Delhi. Up to an extent, they spoilt the game for the Congress party which lost the election and was looking to make a comeback. In the end, BJP singlehandedly has got the majority. Most of the anti-BJP votes had got split, giving BJP victory through a small margin in several seats.
The Takeaways
BJP is the predominant party of the day. As of today its path to 2024 is pretty clear.
Undoubtedly BJP is the prize winner of this election. But the idea of BJP winning them can be reframed as BJP defending all the states it had already had. The only state in which BJP came extra was Manipur as discussed above. This shows that BJP is not only good at winning states but also defending them. Currently, Opposition shows no signs of recovering for this year or even the next year making 2024 pretty much clear as of today. Opposition is still in a belief at it can wake up a few months before and win elections which will not happen. If 2021 was the Opposition's game then 2022 is BJP's. The only place where BJP is weak is taking on regional parties and local leaders. BJP also has lost important allies like SAD, SS, etc. Only JDU is there with BJP as a strong ally.
The only thing that can go beyond caste and religion
Indian elections have a lot of aspects like caste and religion influencing them. What is something that could beat those barriers? This is not something related to only this election but has been there for quite some time. The answer is Welfare. It breaks all man-made barriers of identity. In UP, BJP has done excellent delivery of welfare, especially during the lockdown period. This has got them a lot of women voters. People have appreciated this beyond caste and religion. It has given them a splendid victory. See what has been AAP's model in Delhi and what was the manifesto in Punjab. It is purely welfare. In Kerala, LDF did the same thing in 2021, TN has been doing it for years. In both TN and Kerala, ruling parties swept the election cutting across the caste and religious lines.
AAP is eclipsing Congress as the main opposition in several states.
Starting from Delhi in 2013 to the most recent elections in Punjab. There is only one thing in common, Congress is dying and death is giving new life to one party- AAP. Aam Aadmi Party is now going to each and every state there is a bipolar contest between Congress and BJP. It will then try to make a dent, by slowly killing Congress and replacing it. Whether it is Uttarakhand, Goa, and Gujarat, AAP is making the same plan and Congress is falling into the same trap. Whether you agree or not, AAP has the right to fight elections and has the right to be the national party.
Congress is not even having a hundred seats out of 700 seats that gave the verdict.
Punjab and Goa gave Congress less than 20 seats. UP has given only 2 seats while in Manipur, the party is reduced to only single digits. On the other side, only relief for Congress in Uttarakhand which gave a few more than 20 seats. Arithmetically, it is much less than a hundred, compared to the total number of seats up for election this time. This is a significant backlash for the grand old party and has a bleak future ahead.
Women votebank- A decisive factor.
Today, Women stands as votebank just like Youth. Unlike Youth, women's aspirations are specific. The first party to give a lot of importance to women was TMC in West Bengal, later BJP did it at the national level. This is also amidst the fact that women's turnout in the past few years has been very high. They also vote very much different than male members of the family. Thus they are a neo-votebank. BJP has unveiled a lot of women-friendly schemes, ujwala yojana, toilet schemes, ration, etc. that have helped women a lot. In UP welfare schemes compared with Law and order and women's security has been significant in helping BJP cross the 200 mark. Even when the man of the house may be unhappy with BJP, a woman is happy and is voting for BJP. AAP will soon come up with women-friendly schemes. They will help you win the elections. Mamata Banerjee's main votebank is women.
Being a CM doesn't guarantee you victory.
Will Yogi Adityanath or Pinarayi Vijayan or M K Stalin or Yeddyurappa lose in their home turf? Your answer would be no. Being chosen as the CM itself gives you immense popularity not only within your state but also at the national level. No one knew Yogi before 2017, now almost everyone across India, know him and his policies. Pinarayi Vijayan also got national importance only after 2016. SR Bommai is now famous in South India. Khatar is popular in Haryana all because they were CM. Most of the CMs get a very high victory margin in their own seats. But in the 2022 election that was not the case.
Following are the CMs who lost the race. Badals have been winning elections unbeaten for decades especially Parkash Singh Badal from Lambi.
Congress for the first time in history is restricted to power merely in two states.
Congress party is the lowest in the history and has power only in Rajasthan and Chattisgarh which will go for elections next year. It is an alliance only in two states- Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu. The party is in its deathbed. Grand Old Party is now only an Old and Outdated Party.
Divided Opposition is a blessing to the ruling party that faces anti-incumbency.
In Goa and UP, the divided opposition was in turn a big help for the ruling party which faced anti-incumbency in both states. BSP captured 13% of votes but got only one MLA. If at least half of this 13% would have gone to the SP alliance then, SP could have overthrown BJP out of power. A similar situation happened in Goa, where NCP, TMC and AAP split the votes in favour of the BJP. This phenomenon has been happening in Indian politics for a long time.
AAP is the first regional party and only party after INC, BJP, CPIM, to have a CM in more than one state.
Delhi and now Punjab, both have AAP CM, directly ruling the regions without any alliance partners. Other than the above-mentioned parties AAP will be the new party to have this speciality. It thus has massive potential to be a national party.
Proper Leadership/Face is important
Whether it Goa, Punjab, UP, Punjab or Manipur all states show one thing- A CM face is important. This can potentially gather a lot of publicity and energise the cadre, give the campaign a slogan and life. SP was the only party that had raised a rivalry to BJP by putting Akhilesh as the face. In Punjab, Channi-Siddhu rivalry demolished the party's chances, while AAP's Bhagawath Mann was miles ahead. In Goa, Promod Sawant didn't have a rival challenger from Congress. Same with Uttarakhand, there was virtually no challenger despite BJP having changed their CM multiple times. India's elections are turning presidential, with Chief Minister more important than the MLA.
What's next?
This is going to AAP and BJP year. Delhi MCD elections are the next challenge for AAP. It is BJP for years that have had the upper hand in elections. For BJP its Presidential Elections in the country that is important followed by Gujarat. That is also a state where AAP wants to fill in the void of powerless Congress. Gujarat used to be the only state where Congress has had given a good challenge to BJP for years and the only state with a direct Congress-Bipolar contest. AAP had won a lot of seats in Surat Municipal Corporation. That is how AAP will start its Gujarat campaign, the fourth state of the AAP experiment.
Larger Impact
Stronger BJP, Strong AAP and Paralysed Congress. The next President of India and possibly the next Prime Minister will be from BJP only.
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