Over 38 countries have already confirmed the existence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant. By the time you read it, it will cross 50-60. Thus it will be a dominant strain across the globe. Why? Because we live in a globalised world. Also, this virus doesn't need a passport, visa or anything in particular to travel. It will spread as long as humans travel and also in the regions humans live. Alpha and Delta variants spread across the world in the same way. WHO fears that this might be the dominant strain across the world now.
B.1.1.529 is the scientific name of the COVID-19 variant. WHO named it Omicron for the general public. Botswana and South Africa today have the most number of cases reported till now. Over 13 US states also have reported at least one cases. On the other hand, most developed countries have also confirmed the existence of the cases on their own soil.
How can you identify the omicron variant?
Till now there is no evidence to say that the variant escapes RT-PCR or Rapid PCR test. The cases that were reported till now were detected that way only. Scientists have detected and decoded the genome sequence and have been shared it with scientists across the globe. So each and every test that is done across the globe can easily detect variants now. Till now, there has been no evidence to show that there is any variation or change in symptoms.
How dangerous is the new variant?
It is too early to answer this question because it takes time, the scientific community needs at least three to four weeks again which is too soon to confirm anything. Till now there is no evidence to show that omicron is deadlier than delta variant. Although we have seen a massive spurt in disease spread in South Africa, while another news from Botswana shows that majority of omicron cases were only asymptomatic. We will need more time to understand and put forward appropriate policymaking. That is why the US has adopted a new strategy including travel bans, which is aimed at buying time. This is only a short term strategy and not a long term solution. There is also no evidence to show that those who were previously infected are also vulnerable to the same.
How to stay protected against the new variant?
There is nothing much we can do right now because we don't know much. The only two types of measures we can do at the individual level are wearing masks and getting vaccinated. Both of these are good tickets if you need to live in the pandemic and post-pandemic world tension free. People shouldn't hesitate in taking vaccines just for the sake of it. They are proven in reducing symptoms, hospitalisations and deaths.
On the government level, we can see how nations are imposing travel bans. It will remain a short term solution. Nations need a better way to deal with the problem. Today, we know the fact that you need a negative PCR report and vaccination certificate to travel. Some countries are also scrutinising foreign arrivals. So we can see how countries are dealing with the problem to protect their respective population.
How effective is the vaccine?
As per all the studies, vaccines have proven to do their jobs, ie to reduce the severity of the disease, reduce hospitalisation and deaths. There is a lot of fake news and unwanted misinformation that is running on vaccines. Also, we have massive politics that has been happening over the same.
Listen to our podcast episode on COVID-19 Vaccine politics.
Vaccines are not chemicals, they just contain an inactive virus or even m-RNA of the virus that is used to fool the body. The body in turn releases antibodies ensuring your protection against the virus if they attack sooner or later. In addition to that vaccines also come with a buffer solution to maintain the pH of your blood. Vaccines won't cause any harm to your body. Irrespective of the vaccine, we can see they were working. It's also a reality that most of the people dying are unvaccinated also the rates of death is very in unvaccinated countries. Now, the US has released booster shots for everyone who have taken two doses of anyone vaccine a long time back.
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Addressing vaccine disparity
Africa lags behind in vaccination while North America, Europe and Asia are fairly ahead. This means, that Africa will now see more mutations and variants. So the developing world and covax initiative should ensure that the continent gets enough vaccines to protect itself. Europe and the Americas will see more omicron variants because they used vaccines to get ahead while neglecting other countries. They are tasting their own medicine right now.
India and Omicron
The first Omicron case was reported in India on 2nd December in Bengaluru Karnataka. One from a traveller from South Africa, while the other was a doctor who didn't have any travel history. On 4th a Zimbabwe person from Gujarat also tested positive for the variant. In addition to that Maharastra and Delhi have confirmed one case each. Over 10 passengers who came on a plane are untraceable till now. Kerala, Karnataka and Maharastra have imposed mandatory quarantine for foreign arrivals. For entering Mumbai you will also need RTPCR if you're taking a domestic flight. For a state the safety of the population is important but again unwanted restrictions are deplorable. India which had planned to open up for foreign commercial flights by mid-December, eyeing for tourists during Christmas and winter have already dropped that. Till now that's the information we have, cases will certainly increase over time.
What are the options for India?
India had a strict lockdown in 2020 and later during the second wave, we can see all states putting massive restrictions. Even cross-district travel was stopped during this period. India's lockdowns came at a big cost of negative economic growth and also the collapse of a lot of local businesses and disruptions in the supply chain. So whenever a government thinks of fighting this new variant it must take into account a few concerns. Also, we must appreciate the government of the day that we are well past 1 Billion vaccination doses. Although our second dose is where we are lagging right now. Till now, only two cases have been reported and there is no cause for immediate response or panic.
1. Nationwide lockdown- This is an extraordinary event just like we saw during mid-March to the end of May. Such an option is bleak right now and also highly unlikely. Even during the second wave, when the delta variant was creating havoc across the nation, also when the healthcare infrastructure of many of the states collapsed, there were no nationwide restrictions. Everything concerning restrictions was done at the state level. Almost all the states went into a lockdown. This option will create supply chain problems as no state can afford to stop interacting or depending upon each other. Consumer states are dependant on producer states for even basic things like food grains, vegetables, medical supplies etc.
2. Statewide lockdown- This is an open-ended option, states can have lockdowns except for basic services. This will include the closing of offices, shops, educational institutions, malls, banks etc. while still ensuring there is a surplus of supply. Again the effect will be state to state. States also can impose, restrictions on inter-district travel. This move can have long term damage to states economy but again healthcare has to be taken solely by the states themselves.
3. Travel restrictions- People travelling from foreign countries, and also domestic travellers can be scrutinised. Mandatory quarantine and testing can be imposed on people coming from high-risk regions. There can also be restricting people's travel using other instruments like priority travel, only vaccinated people can travel, only people with a negative test, only if you will quarantine, you can travel etc. Economical but hard for people who are constantly travelling or in a profession that makes you travel.
4. Closing of crowded areas- Restricting places where people tend to gather and crowd. Eg- educational institutions, workplaces, malls, pubs, weddings, parties, public transport etc. This is a viable way but at the same time, there should be alternatives like an online class, WFH, online deliveries etc. This will also hurt big and small businesses which have picked up post the second wave.
5. Cluster wise restrictions- Cluster-based, hotspots, local area restrictions, would be better and economical in the same way. Life would almost be normal in a majority of the areas sparing a few. This can also ensure that disease is far more restricted without having to lock the entire district or state.
Preparing for the worst
At this time, India shouldn't waste time. We couldn't anticipate the second wave and also India didn't prepare for it. This time, we should anticipate the third wave, which was actually a big buzzword for the past many days. By now both central and state govts, who should keep the healthcare infrastructure ready for an inflow of patience, stock up and clear way for oxygen, beds, and whatnot. Vaccination of the unvaccinated should also be given priority and also there should be encouragement for the same.
Let us understand that we must not let our guard down at the same time, it also should not panic us and put us in more trouble. Winter is here, mixed with diseases like flu, the spreading is going to be easier and problematic ahead of the festive seasons. Booster doses, with modifications for variants, can also help us in future. This way we can stop the infection and achieve herd immunity.
Last but not least don't forget to take the vaccine at your turn. All vaccines work.
You are not safe until everyone else is safe.
References
WHO NDTV CNN Reuters TOI ThePrint
Disclaimer
This article is not a medical advisory for anyone to take any medical decision. This episode is solely meant for information not for action. The author is neither a doctor, government official, scientist or frontline worker.
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