Bihar Elections: A Post Election Analysis
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has defeated the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in a landslide with 204 to 33 seats in the state of Bihar. NDA came very close to its earlier record of 206 seats in 2010. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is based in Hyderabad, has secured five seats, and the Bahujan Samaj Party secured one seat. This article gives you a clear understanding of the results.
Coverage of Bihar Elections 2020
The Results
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| Credits- TOI |
Inference of the election results
With a landslide, the NDA has been declared the winner, becoming the largest alliance once more. It secured more than 200 seats. Within the NDA, the BJP is the largest party, and the JDU is the second-largest party. Last time this gap was too wide, but now, JDU has narrowed it to 10 seats. BJP has come out as the largest party in Bihar for the first time in history. Nitish Kumar of JDU, amidst all the challenges, is the vote magnet of the state that criss-crosses caste and gender lines. Even in rural areas, which were the safe havens of the RJD and Left, JDU and BJP have barged in. This is an incredible achievement in Indian Politics. Lok Jan Shakthi Party, which hardly crossed two seats last time, won a whopping twenty-one seats. MGB has come in a distant second with seats, and RJD is the largest party not only in the alliance but also in the entire election. Congress is now in single digits in the state that was the home turf of Congress during the independence movement. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party, which wanted to be a dark horse in its maiden run, but couldn't open any account.
Compared to 2020, when the voter difference between the two alliances was too close and RJD was the single largest party, the tables have changed significantly. NDA had always had the upper hand in Bihar, as it had a much bigger and broader coalition of voters. The BJP brought in the upper-caste votes, JDU brought in the EBC, OBC, and the women's votes, LJP brought in a chunk of Dalit votes, and RLM brought in the Khuwaha votes as well. On the other hand, RJD was stuck with the Muslim-Yadav combination. The VIP party that joined the MGB couldn't make a difference. Left was also routed in their strongholds compared to last time.
RJD leader and the CM candidate of Mahagathbandhan, Tejashwi Yadav, was trailing in the home turf of the Yadav family, Raghopur. Both sons of Lalu Prasad Yadav were trailing. This is extremely embarrassing for Lalu Yadav's family, RJD, Mahaghatbandan, and the larger India alliance.
What went in favour of NDA and what went wrong for MGB?
This Bihar Election was a tug of war between Mahila and Yuva. Exit polls showed that Youth overwhelmingly supported the RJD and the Mahagathbandhan, & Women overwhelmingly voted for JDU and NDA. Women turned out more than men because most men were outside the state as migrant workers. This is now a global trend where Youth and Women's votes decide the victor. No doubt that Women this time were the kingmakers. Nitish Kumar was always seen as extremely in favour of women cutting across the caste lines. The liquor ban, the Rs 10,000 per year promised before the election to housewives, worked out in favour of him. Free electricity was another promise that was able to overcome the anti-incumbency and was a big outcome in favour of Nitish Kumar. There was also a massive speculation that this would be Nitish Kumar's last election, which made the mandate go more in favour of him.
BJP and JDU throughout the elections were highlighting that the Jungle Raj period under Lalu Prasad Yadav would return under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav. This actually pushed non-Yadav groups to counter-consolidate against the RJD. People didn't see Nitish Kumar just as a saviour from the Jungle Raj, but also a person who tried to solve their day-to-day issues. Maybe he wasn't the best guy able to deliver that much, but still, he didn't mess up the situation, which is what they saw. Along with that came Modi, who always talked about development, infrastructure, and double-engine government. There were visible changes in front of their eyes in big cities, notably in Patna, in the past five years.
Exit polls had predicted the Youth overwhelmingly supporting RJD and Mahagathbandhan, but the results didn't show this inference. Jan Suraaj party, which was said to be taking away votes from NDA, not only didn't take votes from NDA, but might have damaged the MGB more. There were friendly fights in 10 seats in MGB strongholds, which turned out to be a disaster. The Congress party did damage to itself, RJD, and the left parties, even in their sure-shot seats. AIMIM, just like last time, played a big spoiler in the Seemanchal region, where they damaged both established parties in the Muslim-dominated areas and won five seats at the cost of MGB. Muslim consolidation didn't happen towards RJD and Congress as expected. The left parties, such as CPI(ML), CPI, and CPI(M), couldn't perform as they did last time.
When Yadavs consolidated for RJD and Mahaghatbandhan, there was strong counter-consolidation of Non-Yadavs in favour of JDU and NDA. MGB just copied and pasted the NDA schemes for women, which never worked. The only different thing they brought to the table was jobs for the youth, but that appealed only to a short stratum of society. The Grand Old Party Congress was nowhere in the campaign as such. None of its initiatives worked in the states, reducing it to dust.
No more is a higher voting percentage showing a clear indicator of anti-incumbency. Was there an anti-incumbency? Yes, but there was also a hidden pro-incumbency wave. There was an unhappiness with the government, but no anger.
Implications and The Way Ahead
Bihar, now like any other North-Indian state, is seeing the dominance of the BJP as the largest party. There will be no wait until we see a BJP CM in the state. With more allies in the NDA, there are more deputy CMs contenders. Unlike other states, the BJP used Nithish's image to win the election in a state where there is no strong state leader for the BJP yet.
Nitish Kumar is too old, and JDU is a leaderless party without Nitish Kumar; there will be a need for leadership to lead the party as well as any future government. It will be an introspection time for both the RJD as well as Congress party. Even the future of the INDIA alliance is something that is yet to be identified. Many allies of Congress and other INDIA partners understand that their alliance is not helping, but they are forced to ally with it due to the vote-share it commands and the pan-India presence. But the silver lining for the RJD and Congress comes from the strong vote bank it commands, commanding close to 38% of the vote share, which is not a small number.
Bihar needs a good future that requires all parties, including JSP actively contribute to it. An alternative politics to the current norm is needed.
The 2024 elections, if seen from today's lens, can be argued as an aberration rather than a new wave of trends. BJP has emerged much stronger with course correction, but Congress has done exactly the opposite.
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