On the third of December in the morning, everyone thought that Congress was going well in all the states as per both opinion and exit polls. Later it turned out to be the worst day the Congress party could have ever dreamt of. From winning one more state, it lost its sure-shot bet which is Chhatisgarh. It couldn't also pick up Madhya Pradesh which it won in 2018 but BJP was ruling the same state for more than 18 years. Besides winning Telangana Congress has nothing to cheer in an election where the party even saw many of its senior leaders underperforming.
Here are a few reasons why Congress got decimated in an election that it could have at least won three out of four states. This was a massive missed opportunity for Congress to make a nationwide revival in the country as well as have a revival over the grand opposition INDIA alliance.
Overconfidence
When Opinion polls came out one month back, all polls predicted an edge to Congress in Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while a neck-on-neck in Rajasthan. Congress was confident enough that it could pull off a victory without much effort and that it could also retain Rajasthan breaking the curse. Congress waited for the miracle to happen and for the people to vote out the BJP government in MP and not work for the same. The same issue happened in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan where Congress thought that its own policies were enough to get popular support. On the flip side it was the BJP that took the opinion poll seriously took feedback on the ground and worked on it. Home Mister Amit Shah took serious note of it and tried to correct the BJP's mistakes without any hesitation. From helplessness, the BJP rose like a rocket.
Modi's Rallies and Popularity
Modi is still very strong and invincible. In 2018 there was a belief that Modi's magic was getting weakened to a narrow victory in Gujarat and losing the three Hindi belt states. But the resounding victory in the Hindi heartland and Gujarat show his immense popularity as we are at the doorstep of another election. In the three states and parts of Telangana, PM Modi did massive rallies across the states talking about all the issues plaguing the states ranging from the issue of corruption, ills of the INDIA alliance, Hindutva and communal issues, law and order issues in Congress-ruled states, the issue of Ram Mandir, welfare schemes and a lot more. BJP was banking on the PM's charisma to win the elections and his contributions and not to be ignored. Academics call this Moditva. His massive roadshow across the bread and length of Hyderabad city covering more than 20 constituencies at a stretch was strategic. Modi's guarantee has been accepted across the world and people are ready to support him without any second thought.
BJP's trio
It is not just the Prime Minister but also all the state leaders of the BJP who contributed not only to the party but also to the development of the state. Although the BJP High Command ignored the trio first after opinion polls, the BJP accommodated several state leaders, improved upon their ticket distribution and gave the trio more autonomy. Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje were brought to the campaign to gain back their lost votes and swing voters. This trio is an asset to the party which it was at first ignoring. Their role in reviving BJP from its record collapse cannot be ignored.
Women Voters
Today Women vote to decide the winner. The party that gets the maximum women's vote wins the election. The Modi government was strategic to reduce the gas prices. Shivraj Singh Chauhan who is known as Mama champions the women vote in his state. His policies are extremely popular among women. All parties including the BJP banked on welfare directly aimed at Women. The same women were tired of deteriorating law and order in Rajasthan and wanted to vote for Ashok Gehlot on the same.
Ladli Behna and Ladli Lakshmi
It was raining freebies and welfare policies in Madhya Pradesh. Women between the ages of 23 and 60 were provided with Rs 1,000 per month. This amounts to Rs 12,000 a year which is a significant amount for women to be independent and it is directly being provided to her account. This scheme has allowed women to turn out in large numbers and press the button of lotus. Even those who didn't know about BJP, Congress, Modi, Kamal Nath etc. knew that they had to vote for the flower. Hence today, communicating directly to women and ensuring they turn up for voting. But the same types of welfare schemes including free mobiles for girls didn't work out well in Rajasthan. Why? Was there a problem in communication?
Machinery- BJP Cadre
Today no party perhaps barring the Communist parties across the world would have an extraordinarily well-oiled cadre. In order to compete with a party like the BJP and win elections. Having a strong grassroots connection is essential to communicating the activities to the public as well as taking feedback and giving policy suggestions to the leadership. BJP cadre was able to communicate the distrust in the people to the top brass and hence it was corrected at the right time. So, this enables the BJP to understand the pulse of the people and report it to the makers. Hence, there's a proper tandem that helps BJP to be a better communicator. Cadre also has the role of ensuring that welfare schemes penetrate well on the ground. Unless Congress part builds a strong cadre and works 24x7 and not just when the elections are declared it can do wonders.
Moving away of leaders like Jyotiraditya Scindia, took away a lot of votes from its strongholds of the Gwalior-Chambal region which has been historically a Congress stronghold and also the regions in Bhagelkhand where regional parties had a lot of votes. In Rajasthan, Congress lost its strongholds like Marwar and lost a couple of seats in Shekhavati and Hadoti. In Chhattisgarh, BJP was able to march into Congress strongholds like the Bastar region. Hence, Congress's machinery extraordinary was a failure.
Hindutva and Communalisation
Elections in India notably in the North are incomplete without Hindtuva and Communalisation. Beyond question, the Indian public is addicted to it every election. Although this time, Hindutva took a back seat yet wasn't fully absent. PM Modi invoked communal politics directly and indirectly aimed at the Congress party and the INDIA alliance. He claimed that INDIA is also present Indian Mujahideen which was a comment poor in taste. Another major communal headline was the Sanatana Dharma remark made by DMK an important Congress ally. This made massive talk of the town in Madhya Pradesh. Also, the stance of Congress on the Palestine issue was weaponised by the BJP IT Cell including Congress MP Rajmohan Unnithan calling for the assassination of the Israeli PM. To what extent Congress will continue to take the burden and bail out the mistakes and mistakes made by its allies is an important question. The energy and excitement of Article 370 abrogation and Ram Mandir opening in January also energised its cadre and core voter base.
Local Hindutva rhetoric and communal issues were also there. An important local issue in the election was the beheading of Kanhaiya Lal, a tailor in Udaipur by extremists. The delayed actions and time-consuming legal course also was highlighted and used effectively by the BJP. In Chhattisgarh, BJP made the issue of conversion as the primary issue and won many of those seats. In Telangana, both BRS and Congress were fighting for Muslim votes while BJP eyed more conservative Hindu urban voters. Despite attempts by Kamal Nath and Bhupesh Bhagel to portray themselves as not less Hindu than BJP, that didn't help at all. In Chattisgarh on the issue of the Mahadev App Scam, PM Modi mentioned that Congress didn't even spare Lord Mahadev which was to invoke religious sentiments on a different issue.
Youth
This election was massively in favour of the BJP as far as the youth vote is concerned in both Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh. As discussed in earlier articles, the BJP commands the youth vote. Despite the central government's effort to tackle unemployment at the national level, state governments in these three states failed to hold government exams properly. In North India, government exams, and army recruitment are very important issues for the public. Youths were unhappy with the poor conduct of exams, question paper leaks, improper recruitment and lastly favouritism in favour of aids of the ruling party. All this alongside high unemployment has favoured the BJP barring Madhya Pradesh. Youth can be a potential swing vote in Northern states in state elections.
Withering away of Tribal Votes
Tribals are a significant portion of Southern Chattisgarh and parts of MP and Rajasthan. Tribals have always been a consistent votebank of the Congress party in almost all states of India until recently. BJP has been working hard to tame the Tribal votebank. BJP worked for tribal welfare in Chhatisgarh. This includes both state-level and Modi government's policies. The elevation of Draupadi Murmu as the President has created a diversion of Tribal votes in favour of Modi and BJP. Through all this BJP was able to barge into the Bastar region winning enough seats to capture power compensating for the losses in cities and suburbs.
Welfare and Freebies
This election was primarily fought on welfare, freebies and guarantees by all parties. Depending on your ideology, philosophy and party you support you can either approve or disapprove it but it has become an important cornerstone of Indian elections. Whether it is Congress or BJP, who gives more populist schemes is something that has decided electoral outcomes. But this election it has been BJP schemes that did all the magic. It is not because Congress schemes were anything less but the messaging and perception made all the difference. Modi ki Guarantee was very talked about whether it be Jal Se Nal scheme, Ujwala, Life Mission, Free rice for 80 Cr families during COVID-19 and beyond among many others. In addition in MP, Shivaraj Singh Chuahan's Ladli Behna and Ladli Scheme was enormously popular in driving the women voters. While, Congress welfare was marred by corruption and Also, the double-engine rhetoric that policies can also happen when both centre and state work in tandem has also affected Congress more. Most importantly it's the BJP that was successful in translating these schemes to votes.
Opposition Image and Corruption
It was supposed that Congress and the entire opposition had ramped up its image through recent electoral victories and the Bharat Jodo Yatra. That is where the Modi-led BJP had to hit the opposition at its weakest. The image of Congress as a corrupt party has been evoked multiple times. There were massive ED raids that were done just a few days before the voting days in both Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh to tarnish the Congress image. In MP, the BJP was talking about the Congress misrule in 1998-2003 period. Hence, the BJP damaged any chances that Congress was the right alternative for people. Most of the Congress welfare schemes also underperformed due to corruption as well.
Allies and Splitting of Votes
Barring very few seats Congress went alone in all three states. The purpose of the grand INDIA alliance became useless. It was to unite the anti-BJP votes which didn't happen. Instead, Congress was never ready to accommodate smaller parties with good voter shares like SP, BSP, AAP, CPIM, CPI, RLTP etc. Congress just weeks back ignored the warnings of Nitish Kumar just before ticket distribution. Only the RLD could get some relief but BSP, SP, AAP and CPIM did cut a lot of votes of the Congress and BJP won in those seats. That effect was also in tribal seats where Tribal parties were also contesting. This is where alliances play a bigger role. Easily Congress would have seats like Hawa Mahal which it lost by 600 votes. INDIA alliance was supposed to have had their rallies starting from Bhopal but later it was cancelled due to indifference. Congress didn't learn anything from Gujarat.
Akhilesh Yadav, Sachin Pilot and Aravind Kejriwal
INDIA alliance was negotiating for seat share in all these states. SP leader Akhilesh Yadav requested for few seats in MP which had a strong presence. He was driven out and made fun of by Congress leaders. Kamal Nath despite being a responsible senior leader and experienced politician called him Akhilesh Vakilesh which created a lot of trouble for Congress. SP vowed to take revenge in UP for the same. Similarly, charismatic leader Sachin Pilot who made a Meena-Gujjar-Muslim Caste coalition to win Rajasthan in 2018 was sidelined. His loyalists weren't given seats and hence a lot of Gujjar voters turned towards the BJP. He was not even allowed to campaign for the party until the last leg. Moreover, Gehlot in the name of selecting more of his loyalists retained MLAs with anti-incumbency which led to the downfall. PM Modi invoked Rajesh Pilot's name to make fun of Congress for humiliating his legacy which should be a total embarrassment for Congress in giving recognition to its own leaders.
Why Congress?
From a voter's perspective an important question is- Why should anyone today vote for the Congress party. That answer was not clear throughout the election. There is a lack of clarity, weak leadership, ideological challenge, mixed messaging and rampant mistrust on the ground. In Rajasthan, two tall leaders were fighting, and the High Comand and CM were fighting, In MP and Chhatisgarh it was a one-man show and the INDIA alliance was absent in all three states. In the South Congress is secular, in the North it panders soft Hindutva, in certain states there are alliances and in certain there are not. Who is the leader from Congress people see? Is it Ashok Gehlot, Sachin Pilot, Bhupesh Bhagel, Kamal Nath, Digvijay Singh, Rahul Gandhi or Mallikarjuna Kharge? This wasn't clear at all.
Even when Congress leaders and Rahul Gandhi personally targeted Modi, his popularity overcame anti-incumbency. It was very easy for the Congress to challenge local issues but there was no nationwide plan to target a figure like PM Modi and his gigantic team besides personal attacks such as panauti. In Telangana, Congress depended on consultant Sunil Kaligolu but why wasn't he or anyone else hired in the other three states? Just because opinion polls gave you the edge doesn't mean you don't have to work for it. You have to fight and not leave it to the people themselves to vote them out. There should be a clear-cut reason why a person should opt for Congress over the BJP. Economically speaking product differentiation should be there and it should be made available to the people.
Positive side- Are all hopes lost?
Despite all odds, Congress is still a strong party with a lot of weaknesses. It indeed gave a tough fight for the BJP in all the states. It came second in all the states retaining its 2018 vote share in the three states it lost. It added a lot of votes in many areas too. Most important it won Telangana from scratch. Congress can be a strong opposition in both Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. MP is also very fertile for the party as there is no secular-left party in the state. Congress Commands 20% of the national vote which is a lot for a party. It is a big bank of votes which needs to be used properly. Only if it learns from all these mistakes it can rectify them and give a tight for the BJP in 2024 and upcoming state elections in the country.
Conclusion
Once again, Congress after the loss has started to blame EVMs in MP which is worse than losing the elections. So, it needs to wake up to a reality and be the change it wants to be. It cannot sit back for the next four and half years only to wake up in the last six months just to see it has missed the bus. Congress has a bad reputation for defending the states it has come to power and also for how to incorporate changes over the years. Also playing the role of an effective opposition and coming back to power should be done by. Only then will the icing on the cake be complete.
Acknowledgements
NDTV, The Lallantop, ThePrint, India Today, Jist News, Axis My India, The Frontline
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