The most closely watched political story of the past month has been the Puthupally constituency by-election after the demise of the MLA- Oomen Chandy. The election is scheduled to be held on 5th September and the results will be declared on 8th. The news channels are covering this issue second to none. The competition for getting content is not only between TV channels but also between digital news portals.
Beyond electing a new MLA, the election will end the debate on whether the constituency will continue to stay with the opposition or will set the stage for great political context ahead of the Lok Sabha elections next year. No way it is going to change the state politics as LDF is in a comfortable lead. This election has yet to see the pomp and glory of Thrikkakara but there are multiple reasons why Puthupally and Thrikkakara are way different.
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For the longest period of time, the Puthupally constituency has been held by a single MLA- Oomen Chandy. He has not been a mere MLA, rather was finance minister, home minister, leader of Opposition and most importantly, a two-time Chief minister of the state. Hence, there is no doubt that Puthupally is a VIP constituency. The other constituency that can come so close only will be Pala, which is also its neighbouring constituency.
Geography
Geographically speaking, Puthupally is a rural constituency in Kottayam District with the only difference being, that it has a strong foothold for Congress and UDF. The central location within the district makes it a transit hub along with the presence of SH-1 or MC Road. It lies close to big towns such as Kottayam and Pala, which has given it a different set of features distinct from any other constituency. The constituency is subdivided into eight villages and three blocks. Pambady is the most important village which also houses the Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Technology, an important Government engineering college in Kerala.
Politics
The constituency since its formation has been a citadel for the UDF, winning at local, state and national levels. Rarely it has tilted towards the LDF. This constituency is a synonym for Oomen Chandy and he has made this constituency his field which gets him elected every time. As the tide shifts in any constituency, in the past few elections, Oomen Chandy's margin of victory has slid and in 2021, it came down to a record low of 9,000. To put it in context it is the same margin of victory, Pala had that year. Since 2016, Oomen Chandy's popularity has waned across the state and Puthupally also saw its downturns. Similarly since 2020, LDF controls, six out of eight village Panchayats and three block panchayats. Only Meenadam and Arykunam panchayats are ruled by the UDF. Arykunam is a panchayat since formation that has always sided with the UDF. Manarcadu is the LDF stronghold Panchayat the constituency.
It is a fact that the main candidates representing the three alliances are youth. Beyond a prestige battle for both LDF and UDF, the NDA is trying to make a strong space and hold on to its core vote in the constituency. The base is more or less even for LDF and UDF making it a fully tight fight. Unlike the other constituencies, the UDF is like the LDF here; Congress here is like the CPI-M; being the default party and a strong foothold. But Puthupally despite being a UDF fortress, also has a strong CPI-M cadre and strong core vote.
Talking Points of the Election- Representing the People's side
The election has seen a set of strong talking points that dominated throughout the campaign period. The most important question is who will take care of Puthupally who holds the legacy of Oomen Chandy. Only a few days after Oomen Chandy's demise, the emotions and sentiments of people towards him haven't vanished and will play an important role in the election. A lot of people adore him a lot and are perhaps been beneficiaries of his policies and programmes. His popularity cuts across party lines, hence his ability to catch votes even in his absence will be seen by the end of the election.
The personality factor of Oomen Chandy and the question of 53 years of Oomen Chandy's monopoly in the constituency is the main highlight of this contest. Most people were very pragmatic about Oomen Chandy and saw him as their benevolent leader. On one hand, UDF has made it a sign of strength, and LDF is questioning this credibility on why this trend needs to be broken. While UDF is asking for votes in the name of their beloved leader, LDF is highlighting the pitfalls and why they need the chance. Most people have personally supported Oomen Chandy due to their close connection, but the development agenda was never given priority before. Sympathy and sentiments were the main planks of UDF and it still believes that will work out.
But the question of lack of development has been what both LDF and NDA raised the most. A lot of people have raised concerns about why a VIP constituency has fallen behind several other constituencies, such as Pala, Ettumanoor, Kanjirapally etc. This is what a lot of votes especially in the younger demographics vouch for. Unlike earlier generations, they may not be that much connected to Oomen Chandy personally. This is why personal patronage of Oomen Chandy hasn't been able to guarantee full-fetched development as per many voters.
Puthupally is one of the rare constituencies, that still doesn't have a proper MLA office. MLA office is meant for people to connect to the governance structure. Similar is the case of lack of proper civil station or sorry state government offices. There are no playgrounds, sports arenas, movie theatres, and other modes of entertainment have also caught attention in the election. This makes people depend either on Kottayam or Pala for leisure or better governmental services. A lot of government schemes by both Central and State governments have also come into the discussion.
As with any election personality factors and candidate quality also matter a lot. The three main candidates are energetic youth and good experience as student leaders. Even without proper legislative experience, they do have some political experience either contesting elections or working within the party. All three parties have strategically put forward the names of candidates and they are trying their best not to lose a single vote which would possibly be theirs. By the end of campaigning the headlines were mostly about cyberattacks and trolling of the candidates, Oomen Chandy and their family members.
Tactics and Strategies
UDF- Trying their best to hold on to their kitty
Congress party had two main advantages- the default political advantage and the first mover advantage. Within hours of the declaration of the election, UDF was the first to declare the candidate, that too the son of Oomen Chandy; Chandy Oomen. The UDF defeated the LDF in the perception battle and got the initial fire. UDF's main strategy was to personalise the election and make it about Oomen Chandy's legacy. Chandy Oommen as the candidate didn't have to speak about anything else. Hence he was not at all controversial. Beyond question, they will get a lot of votes because of Oomen Chandy. Due to the tight race in 2021, UDF will not take any chance of losing the seat which can be a major political blow. Opposition leader V D Satheeshan himself is in charge of the operations.
In the latter half, due to the development agenda brought in by the LDF, the UDF had to bring in other tactics, like talking about state politics, anti-incumbency and various allegations against the present government. UDF had to justify Chandy Oommen's credentials as a student leader at St. Stephens College, with an LLM degree and a summer course at the London School of Economics. He was also active in Rahul Gandhi's BJY. Beyond winning the seat UDF would like to set the trend that it is still a strong force in the state.
LDF- Trying to create history
Unlike other seats, LDF wasn't initially very confident due to the sentiments. It struggled to find a candidate who could give a tough time to UDF in its fortress. LDF bounced by diverting the agenda on development and choking the UDF. Unlike the previous poll at Thrikkakara, LDF here used a low profile campaigning and fewer ministers coming on the field. CM Pinarayi Vijayan although was present at rallies stayed away from controversial issues. Several ministers also did a short campaign. Amidst anti-incumbency, LDF made the election largely of local issues. LDF although claims a big victory doesn't show it is desperate like in Thrikkakara. This match is not a prestige race of LDF. But for LDF its their best bet. Leader V N Vasavan is in charge of LDF campaigning in Puthupally.
A lot of young people and traditional CPIM voters are shifting towards the LDF's viewpoint saying that they need a change. It succeded in diverting the election beyond Oomen Chandy looking for local problems, development, etc. Jaick C Thomas is a local, familiar face for people as he contested two times before. LDF couldn't have asked for more. Through its strong cadre and ruling the several panchayats and the state, LDF wishes to take back the constituency. Last time, LDF secured a significant lead in Manarcadu panchayat. LDF hopes to score a century and show UDF as unable and weakened to rule the state ahead of election years.
BJP- Trying to make a space
UDF and LDF were early to enter and BJP was far behind in both candidate selection and setting the agenda. It chose the Kottayam district President and a young face to send a message. Just like LDF, the BJP tried to delegitimise Oomen Chandy's rule and questioned the developmental track record. BJP made the discussion about Congress-CPIM rivalry in Kerala but friendship elsewhere alongside the achievements and track record of the Modi government. Beyond getting core votes BJP doesn't aim much but it has succeded in making sure its game is alive and it takes each and every election seriously. BJP brought in Union ministers and senior leaders to garner votes.
AAP- X factor
AAP has also been campaigning a lot, but this would also benefit Congress as it will cut anti-UDF votes.
How Puthupally election different from Thrikkakara?
Just a year ago, there was Thrikkakara bypoll which was celebrated as a political festival by the three parties, while today we are at a similar juncture. Beyond doubt, the LDF government after seven years is facing anti-incumbency and anger by some sections of the society. Even in Thrikkakara last year, a lot of political controversies marred the bypoll. Congress and the UDF have a vested interest in making it a referendum on the incumbent government but we know that is a weak argument when it's a sentimental vote that decides the outcome.
The amount of swing votes in Thrikkakara is more, hence was crucial to win them. Like any urban area, there was a large apolitical crowd, a significant immigrant population from the rest of Kerala in Thrikkakara who didn't vote in the election. Moreover, a lot of people weren't even aware of the contestants and even the fact that elections were happening. Such a situation is non-existent in Puthupally which is a rural and closed constituency.
Certain regions of the Thrikkakara constituency such as part of Kochi Corporation are a traditional stronghold of the Congress party, which made sure UDF had a strong lead always. In Puthupally, we can see more of an even contest and both contenders realise that they have a tough fight. LDF's strategy in Thrikkakara was to bring an outsider and experiment their way out, which is not what they did in Puthupally. This was apparently to get more swing votes to their side in Thrikkakara and will not work here. The use of personal connections and sentimental factors works more in Puthupally than in Thrikkakara.
Conclusion
Beyond this election even if UDF wins through a sympathy wave, upcoming elections will be tighter and tougher for it to win. LDF wishes to create history like Pala, Konni and Vatiyoorkavu. BJP wishes to get more Christian and apolitical votes. Ultimately whatever the agenda people set, it would be the voters who will decide the bypoll. No doubt the fight is here between the status quo and the change. Beyond this fight, this race will not largely affect the state politics at large. It is also for voters to evaluate whether to keep electing the same MLA, MLA from the same party or even the children of ex-MLAs, but parties must do a better job by giving people better choices. Puthupally is at a historic juncture, this election will be make or break for the people there.
Lastly,
LDF cannot say it lost saying it's only a sentimental election and nothing else matters.
UDF similarly cannot say it won because there is anti-incumbency and LDF govt is a flop as it UDF tried to ride on sentiments and emotions.
BJP cannot say it lost because both LDF and UDF are part of the INDIA alliance and there's a conspiracy.
Results
The big victory of Chandy Oommen shows, that the sole factor that dominated the election was the sympathy wave and sentiments of Oomen Chandy, both BJP and LDF were unable to do anything more than their cadre vote. LDF even lost the votes of the Kerala Congress-Mani group. The LDF govt was losing its grassroots connection with the people and the government magnet doesn't work anymore which gives LDF more food for thought.
What do think about the hype? If you're a voter from Puthupally, let us know your views and the policies you would like to see from the new representative.
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