#opinion
Kerala is a state that is often considered one of the best places to live in India. It ranks high on multiple indices of the NITI Aayog and boasts impressive Human Development Indicators such as literacy rate, healthcare, education, and low corruption. This success is attributed to the contributions of visionary leaders, irrespective of political affiliation, as well as public participation in socio-politics, policymakers, subject experts, the erstwhile Travancore Kingdom, and many others. This collective effort has led to what is known as the Kerala Model of Development. The state is among the top ten in terms of both GDP and per capita income.
Despite Kerala's significant progress in quality of life and human development parameters, there are other fronts where this success is lacking. Today, Kerala is in the news for negative reasons such as a financial crisis, decreased revenue, rising debt, high unemployment, brain drain, and other challenges. While some issues are overhyped, the state still faces substantial problems, with one of the biggest challenges being a demographic one. This is not an immediate concern, but it is expected to become more significant in the coming years.
The demographic challenge for Kerala
India is the most populous country yet is also seen as one of the youngest countries in the world. The youth bulge India has seen in the years has been phenomenal. Whatever advantage India currently has is due to its demographic dividend. The last census conducted in the country was in 2011 and all stats are referenced back to 2011. Indians have always chosen to leave the country for greener pastures elsewhere. 2,25,620 people gave up Indian citizenship in 2022 which is a new record. The question of brain drain and migration has always been a talking point in the socio-political discourse of the country.
Even when we talk about India being a young country, there is one state that has bucked the trend. As per the UNFPA report of 2023, the population of senior citizens across India will double from 10% to 20% by 2050. When we come to Kerala, the numbers are far more of a grave concern. The proportion of senior citizens in the state of Kerala has been recorded as 13% in 2011 which is one of the highest in the country. In 2036, this is projected to reach a whopping 36%. The child population in the state has been on a declining trend for so long. Kerala's population growth has declined for years now, which is much below the national rate which is also on the decline. Even if the proportion of people in the productive age group hasn't fallen, the declining child population is a matter of bigger concern as they will enter the working age group. This means 45% of the population (children and senior citizens) is now dependent on the rest 55%.
The Kerala government provides Rs 1600 to senior citizens (who do not have other sources of income) as a social security pension, even though is not enough for a decent life and costs big to the exchequer ie. the government. The budgetary allocations for pensions have gone up significantly under the LDF government which is seen more welfare-friendly government.
No political party would like to roll back on them since their survival depends on people's votes. The political economy is designed for parties to make offers and keep people attracted to them. Populism and media discourse also play a major role in shaping people's opinions ie. making people attracted to such people-friendly schemes and inducing feelings of anger against the government. The decreasing demographic dividend is not just a financial burden for the government but also for the families.
The challenges and concerns
The problem here is not about social security but rather how the decreasing working population will prove financially tough for the government to take care of the people. Even if the money is sent back to the senior citizens, will they be in a state to utilise it properly and take care of themselves is a big question mark.
Kerala has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country at 7% while in the 15-29 age group its at a record high of 29%. Although there is a massive difference between unemployment in Kerala and other states of Kerala. Being an educated state, most of the youth who are unemployed are highly educated with qualifications diploma and above. Hence, the aspiration of youth often goes unnoticed and unaddressed. The entry-level job pays very low even in organised sectors which a lot of people are unhappy with. Shashi Tharoor claims that there is a mismatch between what people study and what is needed in the market. We also have to remember that many Engineering Graduates are going everywhere who don't even want a B.Tech qualification.
Kerala is seen as a consumer state which means there is massive consumption happening with less production. This is comparable to many developed countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, etc. which import from other regions. The state also can be considered a classic example of jobless growth. It is not like there are no jobs here. There are jobs available in the unorganised sector for unskilled jobs and daily wage labour which the locals are not ready to take up. Daily Wage labourers from the North and North East have been flocking in the state for more than a decade working across all sectors. Even when locals complain about the lack of jobs in Kerala, the amount of work that immigrants do is immense.
Unlike other states, sadly Kerala's elections haven't seen massive youth participation or the question of unemployment not featuring as one of the most important issues in the country. People have always blamed favouritism and political considerations in Job appointments that deprive opportunities. The rise in apoliticism among the youth of Kerala especially in cities has ensured that their issues aren't discussed well in the public in the way they should be.
Solutions
UN Decade of Healthy Ageing has been introduced to create awareness on matters of changes in demography and ageing of societies across the world. India is no exception for that. The National Social Assistance Programme as part of Directive Principles asks for both state and union governments to make laws for the protection of vulnerable sections. A system of taking care of the elderly and disadvantaged can be created as an important way of creating jobs.
Kerala as a state must introspect why its youth and adult population is migrating to other countries in the West. It is not to say only Keralaites are migrating, because Indians together are migrating but the consequences of the same will be first known to Kerala. The government can establish a commission or deploy a team to research and investigate this problem. NGOs, think tanks and policymakers can also come forward with studies on this matter.
Kerala has one of the highest population densities in the country. It is a highly urbanised state with a big urban conglomeration happening on the West Coast. Utilising the state resources, its unique potential and the urban areas is the way ahead. The Kerala government has come up with an initiative called Knowledge-Economy Mission which makes the state a hub for education, research, employment and much more. Instead of industries, that Kerala will not be able to master in, such initiatives focusing on the service sector will help create more employment and immigration from other states. Easing people to stay here and work should be encouraged mainly from other southern states. For the past few years Kerala's Ease of Doing Business rank has significantly improved and also it has largely shed its regressive image that resisted change.
Today, the entire state is flooded with migrant labour from other states, working for wages higher than other states in the country and filling the gaps which are left by the people of the state. They are having a decent life here compared to what they are back home. From being averted to migration and migrants, Kerala is now becoming a migrant-friendly state. The government is doing a lot in this spectrum. Kerala also became the first state to provide insurance and free medical treatments to the migrants. They were also part of the state's fight against COVID-19 in the 2020-21 period. Although challenges exist from both sides. The recent incidents of violent crimes and cases of smuggling etc. make locals vocal against settling migrants here. Similarly, the mechanism needs to be in place to ensure that migrants can stay here in harmony with the local population without conflicts.
Cities like Kochi and Trivandrum have become cosmopolitan in nature with a lot of people settling here to work in IT parks, banks, government jobs, private businesses, national-level educational institutions etc. Kochi today has vibrant Gujarati, Punjabi, Rajasthani, Konkani and Tamil communities. They run businesses, shops, small-scale industries and much more. This can be affirmed by the changing landscape of the city, nightlife, variety of restaurants, cafes, entertainment centres and much more. These are the sectors which Kerala can work on without damaging its environment and pushing its sustainable development agenda. Modelling Kochi and Trivandrum to adapt positive aspects of Mumbai or Bangalore should be focused on by the state government. The local population must also be ready to accept the cultural change that this will bring. Kerala has also started having IT Parks in multiple districts of the state other than Trivandrum and Kochi.
The tourism and hospitality sector is something which Kerala has always been excellent at but its potential is yet to be fully harnessed. This will need improving infrastructure, putting more money in the tourism sector and also an overall cultural and mindset change for both people and policymakers.
Conclusion:
Kerala has seen tremendous success in multiple fields Despite what it has achieved in recent times, the challenge of ageing the population, rising youth unemployment, exodus of productive population, etc. is a matter of concern. with proper policy and minor tweaks in the existing system can give rewarding results. A lot of problems Kerala currently faces also stem from the same root cause.
Incentivising the working population, improving existing and opening new opportunities, and having an adaptive system to take care of the elderly should be prioritised. Encouraging further research and policy discussions on demographic issues in the state should be the main priority of the government of the day. By leveraging its strengths in education, healthcare, and tourism, IT, while addressing its demographic and employment challenges, the state can create a brighter future. The ongoing discourse should include this topic to create innovative solutions to tackle the problem.
References:
https://kdisc.kerala.gov.in/en/project-2/kkem/
https://india.unfpa.org/en/news/india-ageing-report-2023-unveils-insights-elderly-care-challenges-and-solutions
https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2024/Jan/26/keralas-economic-growth-dropped-sharply-to-66-per-cent-in-2022-23
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/revenue-deficit-dips-kerala-in-2021-22-economic-review-2023-9140646/#:~:text=At%20the%20same%20time%2C%20Kerala,Indian%20average%20in%202022%2D23.
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/4/17/as-india-becomes-most-populous-an-ageing-trend-in-kerala
https://theprint.in/india/despite-highest-wages-across-india-keralas-young-males-are-among-most-unemployed-in-the-country/2024230/
https://apnews.com/article/india-population-aging-kerala-cf94591f605e1932a0df4a011e0ba93a
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