Your simple guide to Elections to five Indian states in 2026: Elections to Kerala, TN, WB, Assam and Puducherry Explained
In 2026, we have an interesting election season with four states and one Union Territory heading to the polls. It has been quite some time since we discussed national-level politics. That is why we are here to remove your confusion regarding these elections in the national picture.
Before you proceed with the topic, do read our previous article for a better understanding!
West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the Union Territory of Puducherry are going to elect their respective governments. The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced dates for assembly polls. In Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry, polls will be held in a single phase on April 9. Tamil Nadu will vote in a single phase on April 23. In West Bengal, polls will be held in two phases on April 23 and 29. The counting across all the states will be held on May 4.
Nationwide significance of these elections
All the states mentioned here, besides Assam, are opposition-ruled states with a marginal presence of the BJP. Here, the main issues in the national capital don't work. In all the states, the BJP is trying to dominate the chief opposition space. The main strategy the BJP uses here is to be an allied partner or expand its alliance.
In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it's a bipolar contest with the BJP trying to break the jinx. Kerala is perhaps the only state where Congress can claim a big revival. Assam and West Bengal remain a distant dream for it. For the CPI-M-led Left, Kerala is the only state they have and the only state with a strong and active cadre. Losing it would be detrimental for the Left movements in the country. For AIADMK, it's the fight for survival, and for DMK, it's about the legacy. For TMC in Bengal, it is about continuity. In Puducherry, the DMK is seeking a comeback.
Altogether, this election is equally important for all the parties- BJP, Congress, Left, TMC, AIADMK, and DMK. We will now discuss the ground situation state by state and the consequences at the state and national levels.
Assam
For the past ten years, the BJP has risen as the biggest party and has been ruling successfully for a decade. The main party before 2016 was Congress, now struggling after it lost its Veteran leader, Tarun Gogoi. That said, the state has been equally fertile to both the BJP and the Congress, as the vote share difference between both parties was hardly 3%. In 2016, Congress lost to the BJP despite having a higher vote share. Today, the current CM, Himantha Biswas Sarma, has become the undisputed leader of the state. He is famous nationwide for his anti-Muslim speeches.
Today, the BJP is able to take advantage of the double-engine government. backed by Moditva and Hindutva. CAA-NRC and illegal immigration have also been raised as key issues. Himanta's five years have also shown massive progress and development on the ground, especially in big cities. With all this, the BJP is once more looking for a massive hat-trick victory. It has also been successful in bringing leaders from across the aisle to its fold, decimating the opposition. BJP is also aligning with the Bodos, giving them a strong advantage.
But then, why is Congress unable to fight back? It is the most gerrymandered state in India. The 2023-2024 delimitation process has been accused of favouring the BJP by altering constituency boundaries to reduce the electoral influence of Bengali-speaking Muslim voters. The total Muslim majority constituencies have been reduced to 23 from 29.
Congress has allies such as the Assam Jatiya Parishad and the left parties. It ended its unholy alliance with AI-UDF in 2021, which is seen as a pro-Muslim party due to a lack of strong performance in the last election.
For Congress, it is a necessity to fight back and win. But several challenges are waiting. Most of its tall leaders have left. Former PCC President Bhupen Singh Bora has left just a few days before. The current Lok Sabha MP Pradyut Bordoloi, the tallest leader in Tarun Gogoi's cabinet, has joined the BJP. The party has faced endless setbacks in the past 10 years. Congress party strongholds have shrunk, and it is not able to counter the strong Hindutva rhetoric of the BJP. Despite this, the party commands the Muslim vote, Ahoms, Tribals in Upper Assam, and border areas with West Bengal.
Together, it is a close fight, but the BJP has the upper hand. If Gaurav Gogoi can bring a big magic, he will become a popular nationwide leader for the Congress.
West Bengal
If this election is a tournament, West Bengal is the biggest prize. If the elections are held today, the ruling TMC will form the government in West Bengal, that too with a 3% advantage. The State has seen a highly personality-centric cult figure under the CM Mamata Banerjee. She has consolidated the women's vote, a section of the urban vote, and minorities. A 3% vote share will give around 50-100 seats upswing in a state like West Bengal.
If there is one state that has been the BJP's dream to capture, it is not any South Indian state nor a North-Eastern state, but the state of West Bengal. It holds the fourth largest number of Lok Sabha MPs and is a key to retaining power in Delhi. It has been unable to win for the past 15 years. BJP grew from 0 seats in 2011 to 3 seats in 2016 and 77 in 2021. BJP this year is expecting less than victory. This state is personal for the BJP as it's the home state of one of the founding members- Shyama Prasad Mukherjee.
Unemployment, economic slowdown, political violence, and law and order problems are the biggest issues in this election. TMC is banking on welfare, Bengali nationalism, and Mamata Banerjee's popularity. BJP is banking on Modi's popularity, development, CAA, and Hindutva. Congress and the left parties are present but only in a few pockets. They are yet to cross double digits.
This is a state where the BJP has been very close to the finishing line yet far from victory, and there is no way the BJP will leave a head or tail unturned for this. Mamata Banerjee is not seeking anything beyond a fourth straight victory.
Tamil Nadu
It is the Southernmost state as well as the most anti-BJP state in India. Dravidianism is the predominant ideology. This is also one of the few states where the fight is between two regional parties. The state has always seen power alternating between AIADMK and DMK. National Parties, Congress, and the BJP, along with the communist parties, are in the back seat, playing only a second field to the main parties. BJP won four seats last time, but the voting percentage was only in single digits.
After the death of Amma CM Jayalalitha, there has been a strong vacuum which paved the way for the comeback of DMK in the 2019 Lok Sabha and later a landslide victory in 2021. CM Stalin has taken the centre stage in TN Politics. DMK is the favourite to win the election. That said, there is also anti-strong anticumbency against the current government. As per the historical precedent, DMK has never come back to power consecutively, which still remains a big question in the political reality. DMK with a bigger coalition has a slight advantage with more allies as well as with welfare policies.
The opposition led by AIADMK has allied with the BJP once again to prevent the split of anti-incumbency votes. The biggest challenge here comes from the Actor Vijay's party, TVK. It has captured a lot of eyeballs in cities and among the youth population. It is looking to break the duopoly of the Dravidian parties by bringing an alternative. Critics say TVK doesn't have a cadre or the right candidates despite polling a two-digit vote share. People may still have a problem choosing TVK over AIADMK.
The question of whether DMK will be able to break the curse, will AIADMK make a comeback, or TVK create history is something to wait and watch.
Kerala
Will the state get a new govt? Will the opposition get a landslide comeback? Will the BJP emerge as a strong third front? Will the new Assembly give a hung verdict? These are the important questions that always become the talking point in every election.
Kerala, for the past three decades, has had alternating power between the UDF and LDF. In 2021, LDF broke the pattern and came back to power with a bigger majority. Pinarayi Vijayan became the longest-serving CM of Kerala as well. He is also looking forward to becoming the CM for the third time with LDF eyeing a third straight term, which is extremely rare in Kerala politics as well as in Indian politics as a whole. Major issues in this election will be unemployment, price rise, Sabarimala, communal issues, and much more. Beyond doubt, there is strong anti-incumbency against the CM and the cabinet.
Ruling for the past ten years, the CM Pinarayi Vijayan has become a cult figure and an unchallenged person within the party and the administration. He has also polarised the politics as such. Backed with big infrastructure, welfare policies, and business friendliness, he has tried to change the politics on the ground. On the other hand, critics blame him for deviating from classical communism and solely focusing on practical politics and authoritarian tendencies.
LDF 2.0 was one of the least ideological governments. There was no concrete Ideological positioning, rather pure pragmatism/realpolitik/pragmatic politics. Some CPI-M members are unhappy with this. They want to restore the party to the pre-Pinarayi Vijayan era. So if he loses, then likely you can see the party opting for a leader who is closer to a figure like VS Achuthanandan.
The UDF, with constant successes through bypolls, local elections, and Lok Sabha elections, is trying to make a big comeback. They have a bunch of charismatic leaders and a foothold within the party. They have a broader social coalition as well. LDF has largely failed to secure minority votes since 2021. This is what gives UDF confidence of a victory. What LDF is looking for is the popularity of its MLAs in their respective constituencies beyond their red forts.
BJP has come with more confidence after capturing power in the Trivandrum Municipal Corporation, Thripunithra Municipality, retaining Palakkad Municipality, and most importantly, the victory of Suresh Gopi from the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency. Apolitical corporate party, Twenty-Twenty has allied with the BJP, looking to boost its vote share, foothold, and gain seats. It has also decided to go ahead with the Christian Outreach and attract Ezhava votes through the BDJS party. BJP is not planning to capture power in Kerala this time; instead, it is trying to take up the opposition space. BJP has selected 40 seats, where it came first, second, and all the seats it had a committed vote of 40,000 in 2021, 24 & 25 to focus on this time.
So, Kerala will be the most interesting yet most-watched election. Do read our extensive coverage of Kerala elections 2026.
Puducherry
Electorally, it is insignificant as it has only 30 seats in the assembly and also only contributes one MP at the national level. This is a Union Territory where the BJP has a comparative influence over its Dravidian allies. BJP is ruling along with the NR Congress. Chief Minister N Rangasamy, who heads the NR Congress, had also shared the stage with both Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah at recent political events, signalling a strong unity in the alliance.
Earlier, it used to be a stronghold of the Congress and DMK, who are currently allies and now in opposition. All is not good with both the NDA and SPA. The Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) has highlighted deteriorating law and order, women’s safety, large-scale corruption, illegal drug sales, and lack of development. Vijay's TVK is also ready to play a spoiler in Puducherry apart from Tamil Nadu as well.
Can DMK-Congress take back its stronghold? Can NDA retain it? Or will Vijay's TVKL play a spoiler? Let us wait for the results.
Conclusion
We will have to wait for May 9th for a clearer picture. For every party, this election is important. For opposition, this is the best chance to recover and unite at the national level. Each state is unique, and its implications at the national level are unique and special.
Whom do you think will win the elections in each state?
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