On 7th November 2024, just after Donald Trump was projected the winner of the Presidency, I made a prediction and sent it to a few of my close friends-
A second Trump term would be more dangerous than the first one.
All sensible people who worked with him have left. He has campaigned this time with much more dangerous ideas. Republicans also have a brute Senate majority where lifelong appointments can be made. He'll have total control over the neutral Justice Department as well. Besides domestic issues, Palestine and Ukraine will be the worst affected. This is a nightmare situation for Europe and NATO as well. Brace for more tariffs, surprises and uncertainty as we move along.
This idea didn't come out of the blue; it was a clear-cut prediction based on his past actions, the polices he campaigned on and whatever he stood for as a person. Eight months passed after Trump's inauguration, and that was one of the most turbulent time periods in recent times, perhaps like never before. Now, there is a big fracture in Trump's coalition happening. Within the US and around the globe, even people who supported a Trump Presidency and saw the revival of global right are really disappointed and see strain with the same. But this was not a spontaneous occurrence, rather a highly predictable one. This article will look into the reasons why people chose to find Trumpism attractive and fell into the trap when the facts proved otherwise, despite all the warnings and insistence.
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Trumpism- A Dangerous Precedence
What is the ideology that Trump professes? We have discussed multiple times that Trump, as a person, doesn't conform to a single ideology; rather, he panders to a few cherry-picked ideologies and links them with populism. Experts and critics call it trumpism as Trump himself is the biggest proponent of it. Even if tomorrow Trump steps down as the President, he will still be active in politics in some form. He has total control over the Republican Party right now. He has made his own cult base called MAGA, which will continue to be a dominant force in US politics for a long time.
What are the basic tenets of Trumpism?
- Populism
- Distrust in Institutions
- Unapologetic nationalism/America First
- Anti-Immigration
- Economic Protectionism/De-globalisation
- Distrust in (Mainstream) Media
- Social Media over traditional Media
- Cultural revivalism
- Authoritarian Style of government/Too much power in a few hands.
- Rejection of Facts
These are the main tenets of Trumpism or something which he had tried to implement in the country since day 1 he was elected, not in the second term but in the first term. His ideology has remained the same since 2015 and hasn't changed; it has only gotten extreme. It was pretty clear that Trump would have tried his best to implement whatever he missed in the first term during the second term. In the first term, there was a strong system which was able to balance out Trump's rhetoric and his policies, which is absent in his second term.
Coming back to tenets, we can summarise further to three core points. First, the biggest foundation is populism, whereby he creates distrust between people and government, especially the Washington establishment of both parties, and that is where he gets his biggest supporters. Second, it is an extreme form of nationalism, including the America First policy, a form of isolationism that prioritises the US its interests over global interests. This includes shutting down the US border, putting barriers to entry, a witchhunt against immigrants and economic protectionism through tariffs. Thirdly, a cult of personality which creates one person as the centre of power, with an extensive government that has unlimited powers and no guardrails. So rejection of Trump is incomplete without the rejection of Trumpism. This is also true vice versa, which many people didn't think at first. If you oppose populism, extreme nationalism, and authoritarianism, then you must oppose Trump.
The rise of Trump
In 2015, he entered the race as an outsider who would fix all the problems, but he was always seen as a polarising and controversial figure at that time. Many of the ideas he talked about that time were very extreme, but today most of them sound quite mainstream. He has polarised the US society and the world so much. Many people from across the spectrum thought he couldn't win just because he wasn't part of the system, but he attracted a lot of people just because of that. There were four major ideas behind his rhetoric, which political scientists around the world warned of: anti-immigration, anti-globalism, protectionism, and populism. Everyone saw it as a facade. No one took him seriously, but everyone just saw him as just another reasonable president who would follow the norms, rules and traditions. They were of the assumption that he would not be pushing that far because the institutions are that strong. No one could foresee the 2020 election claims, the Jan 6 riots, and the Trump 2.0.
The media is the fourth pillar of any democracy. This is not written in any rule book or constitution, but is followed around the world through a political culture. Democracies around the world boast about their freedom of speech, press and dissent. They also have a robust media culture, most of them privately owned and well respected. Sounds like utopia? This was the legacy of the US for a long time. They had a respectable media, and people trusted them blindly. Today, no more than that is the case. Media in the US, like everywhere around the world, is highly divided and polarised.
Trump's rise in the global arena had a lot to do with how the media chose to cover him. He himself, being a TV star, knew how to stay in the limelight with a lot of attention. This is also how he used his campaign in 2016. He never spoke to the media in the same way as conventional politicians do. This grabbed him a lot of attention. But on the flip side, different media houses differed on how they covered Trump. There was a big crack in the US ecosystem between "Liberal" and "Conservative" media on their coverage of Trump, which both the chambers enjoyed as well as hated. But both of them used him to gain ratings and audience. Their ratings hit the sky, and he was exploited for their own gains. This gave him legitimacy that a normal person might not have gotten. The media now became an umpire, a cheerleader, and an enabler-in-chief of Trump.
On the coverage of Trump during the 2024 election period, I mentioned in the article that
The Media promoted its favourite politician- Donald Trump because he was earning a lot of ratings for them. Hence, they did their best to give him a lot of time which indirectly earned him a lot of attention and popularity. The media was successful in holding both candidates to different standards. They were convincing viewers that Biden was old, incoherent and unable to fulfil the job of Presidency, but never talked about Trump's incooherance and old age. They kept questioning Kamala Harris on her credentials, and her four years in office as VP, but the same media hadn’t questioned Pence’s record.
On the one hand, he has weakened the media ecosystem; he gave space for alternative media and social media to grow. Since 2015, he has spent most of his time tweeting. In the 2024 election, we can see that those who consumed more alt-media voted for Trump.
Trump's first term
The best indicator of prospective Trump's policies was his own first term. His first term was marked by uncertainty, lack of civility and disrespect. On foreign policy, he was fully focused on business deals over concrete strategic policy. He took several radical decisions, such as pulling the USA out of international treaties and commitments. He has taken for granted the longstanding relationship with allies. His administration had a record attrition rate. More than half of his cabinet resigned in between and didn't even endorse him in 2024. His own Vice President Mike Pence disowned him. Most importantly, he denied a peaceful transition of power to Biden.
Assume his policies are wrong, his approaches are wrong, but focus on his personality and candidacy. You can see that he is the most unfit candidate to be a candidate for US President from the Republican Party. He is a convicted felon with 34 felonies. He was involved in financial fraud, making slurs against individuals and groups, tried an insurrection to overthrow the government, alleged voter fraud in the last election, refused peaceful transfer of power, appointed fake electors to overthrow the last election, flirts with authoritarians, claims to be a dictator on day 1 and much more. He has always had a soft approach towards white supremacy and Christian nationalism. Let us also not forget that Trump lies a lot. He is a certified liar. He has called Obama an Arab and Biden a Chinese agent. He always changes his words, which has gotten him the nickname of TACO. Would you want to vote for a person who is unpredictable, doesn't stand for anything concrete and changes his word each time?
January 6th Riots
Ok, fair enough- Trump may not have the best of personalities, but you may like some of his domestic policies, which make him a very attractive candidate to you. But we must never forget what happened on January 6th, 2021, when Trump was the President.
A violent mob believing in falsehoods, fake news and conspiracies and who themselves call others fake news stormed into the Capitol Hill as per the instructions of the President and his close officials like Rudy Giuliani. He had requested the mob to do the trial by combat. Trump asked them to march down the Pennsylvania avenue and fight like hell. Earlier he had a spat with the vice president and other members of the Senate regarding the certification of results.
President of the US Donald Trump tried to overthrow the US government. This disqualifies him from holding any office. If you have any doubt about this statement, then just imagine if it were you or me who planned and executed an insurrection. We would have been behind bars immediately. Moreover, on the first day 1 of his second term, he pardoned everyone involved the same including violent rioters. This was highly predictable and informed much earlier by Democrats, including Joe Biden himself. Then you want to believe that Republicans are the party of Law and Order.
Still not convinced? Here are a few broken promises to show why you were wrong about Trump
When he was elected the President in 2024, he had a long list of promises, but as we know, he claimed to be a dictator on day only to sign a lot of executive orders pulling the US back in years. Among several things he promised, there are a lot of things which he hasn't fulfilled.
He would be the President of Peace, an anti-war President who would end the Russia-Ukraine War on Day 1. This didn't happen as promised. But yes, it is fine to not fulfil promises, but not only did he fail on that one, but he also escalated the conflict with Iran, bombed its nuclear sites, etc. Trump claimed both of them as Biden's wars, which is not true. These are Netanyahu's and Putin's war. He even now plans to change the name of the Department of Defence to the Department of War. Since the day he was elected, he has called for the annexation of Greenland and Canada to the US. Trump. Also, Ukraine is highly constrained by the war, but Israel is given a free hand. He was also supposed to keep the US out of all wars, but Ukraine is now forced to have a deal with the US, which drags the US into Euroasia. Maybe you didn't know that Trump would have done all that, but that's not true; liberals warned about it, and no one listened.
Trump will be just another Republican President- Conservatives love small government, especially when the agenda isn't in their favour. This week, Trump is suing the state of California for gerrymandering. Let us rewind it. California did this because Texas did it at the behest of Trump's request. Now, who is weaponising the DOJ that Trump always alleged it on the Democrats? Even these liberals were predicting for a long time. Maybe that was an outlier. Today, Trump has deployed the National Guard in DC after deploying and withdrawing them from LA. He is now threatening to have it done in more cities. New York and Chicago are definitely on the list. Mamdani had already made it a big issue in his electoral campaign. If he wins big in November, one of the biggest factors responsible will be Trump. Again, this was warned by liberals. Conservatives like Now he wants to be President in 2028 for an unconstitutional 3rd term.
Trump will bring down the cost of living- Trump's biggest talking point during the election was that he would make it easier for people to afford goods. He rode the election by calling the global inflation "Bideninflation". He was supposed to reduce the costs but has imposed tariffs on all possible countries, especially on his own allies. The majority of economists oppose tariffs and protectionism, and didn't even endorse him for president, but no one listened. They opposed not just because of principles but because tariffs are inflationary in nature. Bringing back manufacturing to the USA is not possible overnight.
Trump would be good for the economy- Most Trump supporters claim that he was really good for the economy for two reasons. Firstly, because of his experience as a businessman, and secondly, due to his first term. Both of them are forgetting two important reasons. As a businessman, most of his businesses went bankrupt. In his first term, he inherited a good economy from Obama's time and passed it on to Trump. He got into a trade war with China, followed by the tanking of the economy due to the pandemic. Most people will talk about good times during the 2018-2019 period, only to forget the 2020-21 period. Well, if you say the pandemic was not Trump's fault, but you may still claim that Biden was responsible for the inflation. Inflation was a global phenomenon. Also, it was President Trump who signed the biggest stimulus in US history (CARES Act). Now, we have a very volatile stock market and Trump firing the Fed governor for anti-Trump bias. He even said that he would like to fire the Fed chair.
Trump would be great for India- Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on India. There are 25% additional tariffs over the 25% reciprocal tariffs for imposing tariffs on American goods. Under the Biden Administration, India has had extraordinary trade relations. India had a rare trade surplus with the US. That will change under the new Trump Administration. Indian media rarely discussed those aspects during Trump 1.0. One of the biggest myths regarding US politics is that Republicans are better for India than Democrats. This is backed by the idea that Democrats are more hawkish on India's domestic issues. Even in 2020, such a buzz was there, but it was the Biden Administration that was best for India. Both I2U2 and IMEC came under Biden only. As said by Dhruv Jaishankar, Trump's trade policies and Visa polices were unfavourable to India and Indians. Not to forget the pressure to stop buying Iranian oil and the threat of putting CAATSA on buying S400S. Kamala Harris is likely to extend the strategic partnership just like Biden. Trump also supports an isolationist Foreign Policy, which is not what India wants. BJP was very supportive of a Trump victory and expected a revival of the global right wing. This changed with the recent tariff threat and post-Operation Sindoor. Both Indian liberals and Western liberals had warned about this, but you chose not to listen.
Conclusion
Trump's victory in 2024 was seen by many as a new hope, while for others it was a nightmare knocking on their doors. The first few days of his presidency it is a continuation of his unfulfilled first term as well as an extreme version of whatever he preaches. Did anyone anticipate this? Yes, a lot of people, mainly liberals, critics, political scientists and many others, you chose not to listen. There was massive sanewashing of Trump that happened. The worst part of the story is that there are still a lot of people who still believe he will rescue the world through some magic. Can Trump change? Yes, for sure. If he changes, well and good. But the facts, patterns, and the past have shown he will not.
It is high time that Trump is shown his place, opposed and stood up to. We must respond to the bully in the bully's own language. Now, don't tell that you didn't know. You were already warned through this article.
References
https://medium.com/discourse/reasons-for-trumps-second-term-discussed-in-five-political-five-influential-reasons-and-five-fc4b30870904
https://medium.com/politically-speaking/trumpism-and-democracy-in-the-us-c1405cd67761
https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2025/politifact-maga-meter-donald-trump-campaign-promise-fact-checks/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-his-campaign-promises-mapping-his-first-100-days-2025-04-30/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/live-blog/jan-6-committee-final-report-live-updates-rcna62676
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/politics/coronavirus-stimulus-house-vote
https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/900-billion-stimulus.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crevyw50dzyo
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