Donald Trump is the new President-Elect after securing a landmark 312-226 electoral victory against Kamala Harris. This makes him the second President after Grover Cleveland to hold non-consecutive terms. He swept all the seven battleground states contrary to all the predictions and polls which called for a very tight race. He will be the first Republican Presidential candidate to win the Popular vote after 2004 and also the first Republican candidate to win the state of Nevada in twenty years. The Republican party for the first time in twenty years also received a diverse group of voters which it was consistently losing for a long time.
We hereby look into Five Political, Five Influential and Five Numerical reasons why Donald Trump beat all expectations to be the next President of the United States. This is our third article on the US elections 2024, make sure to read the rest.
Politics
Political and international environment- 2024 is considered an election year across the world. This was a challenging year for incumbents around the world. Many leaders had lost their power because of post-pandemic issues such as inflation and other economic challenges. Additionally, constant conflicts and wars such as Israel-Gaza and Russia-Ukraine have plagued the Western World. Amidst this, it would be very hard for any incumbent could navigate through, especially with a country such as the USA, whose role in both conflicts is pretty significant. Hence, as the Vice president of the current administration, it was totally difficult for her to defend the mixed record and pose as the change candidate. Trump as a challenge had the advantage of challenging and also, his rhetoric of being friendly with world leaders paid off.
Inflation and high cost of living- In the exit polls of Elections 2024, the economy and rising costs were the biggest election issues for voters. It is likely that the condition of the economy is often a subjective idea. But the question is- are Presidents responsible for the same? the answer is extremely complicated. In short, the answer is No, Presidents do not control the economy. Hence, largely they may or may not take credit or the blame. But in a post-truth world, perception is such that the President and the party in charge get the blame. The Biden Administration was attacked black and blue for rising inflation despite, Inflation being under control with the index currently lower than in 2021. Since 2021, housing costs and the cost of groceries have skyrocketed hurting families. But there are reports showing real wages beating inflation. Also to be noted that bills are not going to come down any soon as there is no deflation.
Populism- Trump's 2015 entry was considered as an anti-establishment and an angry working-class guy despite being a billionaire elite from New York. Despite his strong background in working with politicians like the Clintons, Schumer, Bloomberg etc. in New York, he was able to garner votes based on anger against the Washington elite and the establishment of both parties. He radically changed his views to suit the situation and rebelled within the Republican Party to overturn the ideology and values of the party to build a strong white working class based in the Mid-West and Rust Belt combined with a significant religious and conservative vote base. He was able to represent the dissatisfaction of whites with rising immigration, people of colour gaining more success and the US spending its effort and money in the name of other countries. This has been the new trend in politics across the world in the 21st century. The central platform of Trump's politics is nationalism, low taxes, high tariffs and anti-immigration. This resonates with the new brand of populist politics which appeals to people across ideologies, backgrounds and identities. This is also noted in the way in which he attacks American institutions, didn't concede the 2020 elections, and the January 6th Insurrection.
Alt-Right- Is Trump a right winger or a left winger or a conservative or liberal? The answer is it's complicated. He has made his populist politics the base of his constituency of voters. Although ideologically speaking, his politics largely reflects an Alt-Right movement which is a cornerstone of rightwing politics in the Western world which began in the early 2000s. The three pillars of Alt-Right Politics are Anti-Immigration, Nationalism, and Conservatism. Additionally, there has been significant addition of more layers to the same- Xenophobia, Anti-Identity, and Anti-Minority rhetorics. These ideas and values which were once abandoned in the Cold War period with the triumph of liberalism are gone. More young people mainly men feel disadvantaged and disenfranchised pushing them rightward. On the flip side, he has championed the left-wing policies of labour, anti-immigration, tariffs and protectionism successfully.
American Values in question- There is no doubt that liberal and free-world ideas are facing extreme backlash across the world. This is more in the Western countries mainly in Western Europe. Ever since Trump came to the stage in 2015. He tried to shoot down almost all of the liberal ideas. The ideas of Globalisation, Democracy, Freedom, free trade, Social and Economic equality, Immigration, and Pro-Science are now extremely challenged within Western countries. So the question is do people actually believe in these ideas in the first place? The answer can vary for sure.
The American political sentiments and the results do indicate that such values are no more relevant to at least a vast majority of people who not benefiting from them. The idea of empathy and collective good is being replaced with inward-looking selfish ideas. It seems like America mainly the Republican party is going back to its original roots of Isolationism, High tariffs, Conservatism, and Nationalism which it embraced in the late 19th and 20th centuries. Donald Trump despite being involved in the January 6th insurrection, overthrowing the government and trying to appoint fake electors didn't move the majority of his voters at all.
Most Trump voters also disregard foreign policy unlike traditional conservatives and also call for more isolationism as promised by Trump's rhetoric from 2015. The Trump voters in 2024 largely do not represent or want to associate with any other values which America itself championed in the second half of the 20th Century.
Influence, Perceptions and Power
Social Media and Media- This was largely a social media election compared to any previous year. The amount of money spent on ads and others was extraordinary. Both parties were championing a digital audience. Although, there were major differences in the approaches of both parties. Democrats focused on mainstream media such as newspapers, TV and News for their PR while Republicans had a network of content creators and podcasters who appealed to much younger, male, disenfranchised, and apolitical audiences who may not have voted ever before to turn out and vote largely in favour of Donald Trump even down the ballot for Republicans. The idea that Democrats are supporting women, minorities, and immigrants has angered everyone and reflected the vote. A woman of minority ethnicity Kamala Harris on the ticket, never helped here too.
Social Media has become a news source for many people across the globe. This is at the top of influencer culture. Social Media algorithms are designed to spread more hate, misinformation and disinformation which largely favour the right. CEO of X, Elon Musk for the past year has been working tirelessly one-sided to promote one side, one leader and one ideology. Currently, all major social media are now echo chambers reflecting all the negativity, hatred and misinformation. The Harris Campaign was doing a door-to-door campaign, phone calls and a lot of traditional campaigning while the Trump campaign focused largely on social media and sending letters to Seniors the biggest voting bloc in the USA. X and Tik Tok together made a significant difference this time.
Candidate Differentiation- This election was a comparison of 10 years of Trump vs 100 days of Harris in a nutshell but it was also an evaluation of 3.5 years of Biden. Almost all the negativities of Biden stuck to Harris such as Immigration and Inflation. While VPs never have a strong background within the administration or policy, her credentials were easily questioned by everyone, not of Trump's and JD's Vance. Here, a lack of familiarity with the larger American apolitical audience significantly favouring Trump. The GOP was excellent in calling her a Communist and Marxist.
Additionally, the Media promoted its favourite politician- Donald Trump because he was earning a lot of ratings for the media. Hence, they did their best to give him a lot of time which indirectly earned him a lot of attention and popularity. The media was successful in holding both candidates to different standards. They were convincing viewers that Biden was old, incoherent and unable to fulfil the job of Presidency. They kept questioning Kamala Harris on her credentials, and her four years in office as VP, but the same media hadn't questioned Pence's record. Also, Trump was never challenged on his background or his presidency besides his involvement in the January 6th. His age was never a matter of question even if Biden with a similar age was taken down heavily.
Communication- Right Wing across the world today leads everyone on messaging and communication. This is also seen in the USA, where Republicans are better organised and appealing to a larger audience which are non-college-educated whites who are likely to believe anything and everything on social media. Trump's rhetorics were quite successfully replicated by the Republican Party and its large-scale social media affiliates successfully magnified messages such as Immigrants eating cats and dogs, the elections of 2020 being rigged, him working in McDonald's, non-citizens voting, Biden's Garbage statement and much more. Democratic Party took all of these for granted. Visibility today matters much more than facts and figures. Traditional "Conservative" TV media like Fox News and NewsMax also have wide viewership much more than all the "Liberal" TV media put together. (The idea of Conservative and Liberal used here as per the public perception)
The image of Trump being much better for the economy, and immigration and much more successfully conveyed the message than facts proving otherwise. Despite having an excellent economy, Trump tanking the immigration bill, the promised Wall not being built, the Infrastructure Bill passed under Biden, and employment being low was never successfully taken up and spread like wildfire by Harris's Campaign and Democrats.
Lack of Narratives- There was a big divide between Republicans and Democrats on messaging. Donald Trump from 2015 was always talking about four words- "Make America Great Again". Whether America is/was great was a different issue on facts. On the flip side, there was no strong message from the Democrats' side. Kamala Harris ran a campaign based on "Hope and Moving Forward" which was a message without concrete backing and lacked a strong appeal among the masses. Even though most of the policy suggestions were made by keeping in mind a Trump Presidency, there were no narratives which took forward Biden's legacy or something concrete which solved people's problems. As said before immigration and the economy were the top agendas that affected how people vote. The idea of tax credits, credits for first-time home buyers, price gauging, and much more never got prime attention.
Young Voters- This constituency is much smaller than others but they have a peculiarity of being the most uninformed and least turning out people for voting. But this time, There has been a larger enthusiasm among them this time and they have come out in large numbers largely in favour of Kamala Harris but not to say that many of them have supported Trump this time. What are the motivations? The issues of abortion, DEI, economy, rising cost of living and much more. This has largely shifted the large-scale male vote from the left wing to the right wing, a phenomenon not restricted to the USA alone. They are also extremely influenced by Social Media.
Numbers
Erosion of White Working Class votes from Democrats- Democrats, historically were called as the representatives of the working class and labour. Ever since Bill Clinton took charge of the Democratic Party, his rightward shift has caused Democrats' strength to weaken in the Blue Wall and Rustbelt seats of Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. To an extent that has damaged the situation in Upstate New York and Minnesota as well. From a party of suburbs, industrial areas and unions, the party has become urban, elite, and college-educated. Biden having his strength in the region had got back the three states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from Trump in 2020. But, Trump's promise of fracking, tariffs and supporting American industries has got back a significant chunk of White working-class votes quite comfortably.
The emergence of a new coalition- As mentioned before, Democrats have become the party of progressive, young, urban, elite, and college-educated. While on the flip side, the Republican Party is growing whiter, old, rural-suburban, and non-college-educated. This division has also been creeping up among the minority communities as well mainly Blacks and Latinos. The Blacks and Latinos who do not have a college degree are turning slowly towards the Republican party, especially in states like Arizona, Texas and Georgia. Thus currently, several Democrats favouring demographics are shifting to the other side.
Erosion of minority votes- It's a fact that first-generation immigrants are likely to support Democrats. But as generations pass, the immigrants become more integrated, and prosperous and start to identify themselves more with the aspirational local population. A record number of Blacks, Latinos, and Immigrants have turned out this time for Trump and Republicans. This is due to several reasons such as as economic, and competition issues with other legal and illegal immigrants. Additionally, let's not forget that both Blacks and Latinos are extremely culturally conservative rightly represented by Republicans. A record number of Indian-Americans would have also voted for Trump due to anti-immigrant and better relations with India rhetoric. Florida, a Latino-majority state has gone red with a significant shift of Latinos to Republicans since 2016.
High turnout of rural voters- In 2020, a significant number of Trump voters didn't turn out to vote. This was because he was the incumbent and many Republicans were upset with him. On the contrary, Democrats and apolitical voters turned out in large numbers with the highest recorded turnout in any US Election to vote him out. In 2024, the tide changed, Biden-Harris are the incumbents and Trump is the challenger. Most of his old supporters with a swarm of new supporters have turned out excellently in Republican safe havens of rural and suburban areas to stop a possible Harris victory. Trump had motivated his supporters to vote in large numbers anyhow (also mail-in and early voting) despite despising the same in 2020. Republican Voters are much more vocal and they compulsorily come out to vote compared to Democrats. This was more of an election-day victory as the high numbers of mail-in votes didn't show that. This was evident in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Georgia wherein the rural turnout was much more than urban votes giving a strong support for Trump's reelection.
Turnout and shift votes in Urban Centres- Several cities this time being Democratic safe havens have bucked the trend and have voted for Trump as well and several cities have seen a dip in the vote share as many democrats haven't turned out to vote. Besides a few exceptions of Atlanta Metro, Salt Lake City, Omaha and Washington state, there has been a significant erosion of votes from even very safe unshakable democrat votes mainly minority votes to Trump and Republicans. This happened in New York City, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Detroit, Phoenix, etc. This is one of the reasons why New York State, New Jersey, Connecticut, Minnesota, and Virginia were much more competitive. This is pretty much embarrassing for the Democratic party.
It is common sense to understand that if Democrats need to carry Pennsylvania, they need to win Philadelphia by a healthy margin of 80-85% and for carrying Arizona, they need to win Maricopa by 55%. The current numbers for Harris are 78% and 47% respectively. Additionally, this effect has eroded several suburbs and suburban counties as well such as Tarrant County, Texas; Nassau County, NY and Bucks County, Pennsylvania, and much more.
Suggestions for losers and winners
It is a big mandate for the Donald Trump-led Republican party, which also won the Congress which can make policymaking and legislative agenda pretty much easier. But this overconfidence and overpromise has always disadvantaged the party in the White House during mid-term elections, especially when Democrats have the weapon of turnout in their hands.
Whether Democrats are going to be more left or more right doesn't play a major role as long as the messaging and effective communication are in place. It's not enough to have good agendas and sit waiting for people to grab them. Voters today are much more transactional than ideological, hence they will not hesitate to experiment and decide to vote for other sides if it suits their interest. Finding voters and making sure the base votes is clearly the only path to victory. Feelings, perceptions and narratives matter much more than just "facts".
Maybe the election can be considered as a backlash on much of the Democratic agenda, but digging deeper may give other reasons and outcomes. It's also to be said that Republicans were lucky as the Democrats didn't turn out in big numbers which would have tossed the election.
As always said, Democracy is not just about elections, voting and majority.
Flipped Counties- Learn with Maps
Here are a few counties which have shifted from blue to red in 2024 compared to2020.
Erie, Pennsylvania- Working Class votes (Also note Bucks and Northampton)
Miami Dade- Latino votes
San Bernardino, California
Maricopa- Seniors, White votes
Tarrant, Texas- White, Immigrant votes
Note- This article doesn't predict or take into account the potentialities or functioning of a second Trump term. This article is the author's compilation on the topic which is designed to improve the reader's knowledge on the topic rather than promote or demote a viewpoint. Here's a book on American Politics.
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