How do US Presidential Elections take place? A Peek at Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris in 2024
With less than a month left for the most awaited election around the World- The American Elections 2024. The US is considered as the world’s oldest democracy and the US President is seen as the most powerful position in the world. Let us look into the entire system of US elections and how they are conducted.
Dates, Days and Months
American elections are more than a year-long process. For many people, election day is mentioned as the day of voting but for others, it’s the day when a new President takes charge and much more. For enthusiasts, it’s the year-long process of selection of candidates till a new President takes the oath that keeps them hooked. As per the American Constitution, the first Tuesday is decided as the date of election. But given that the idea of elections has changed for circumstances, there are different dates for different types of voting as well.
Rules of the election
Unlike other countries where it’s usually the Election Commission that sets the rules, it's much different in the USA. There is a Federal Election Commission (FEC) but it’s a very weak institution. It decides rules on candidates, their profiles, rules on spending, advertising, and much more. As per FEC, one party can have only one candidate. The rules on voting, registrations, ballots, voting certifications and much more are done at the state and county level. Depending upon the margin of victory (0.5 or 1%), there will be an automatic recount.
Parties in USA
In Political Science we are taught that the US has a two-party system but does the US have only two parties? The answer is no, the current party system has evolved over 200 years. The first party was the Federalists followed by Democratic-Republican Party. This later evolved to the Democratic Party which is currently the world’s oldest continuing party. Their counterparts were the Whigs Party. In the Civil War era, Whigs gave birth to the current Republican Party also known as the Grand Old Party (GOP) for their legacy. Besides Democrats and Republicans, there are smaller parties like the Green Party, Libertarian Party, Forward Party, Communist Party and many more. Although its Democrats and Republicans who control the political discourse in the USA now.
Do parties stand for the same ideology and values always? Not really, the current values and ideologies evolved over time largely due to the circumstances and the leaders of the times. Democrats under Andrew Jackson started out as the party of small government, state rights and pro-slavery. Republicans started as a progressive party opposing slavery, high tariffs and isolationism. During the World Wars, Democrats under Franklin D Roosevelt stood for expansion of the federal government and engagement with the world. During the Cold War, both parties were pro-war, Free-Trade, and Internationalism.
John F Kennedy and Lyndon B Johnson drove Democrats to the socially progressive side with Civil Rights and rights for immigrants. Richard Nixon through his southern strategy moved Republicans rightwards. Ronald Reagan gave birth to the new right which were pro-religion, nationalism, and interventionism. This continued even the Bush era. As a reaction, Democrats came towards the centre being New Democrats under Bill Clinton to support welfare, fiscal conservatism, and pro-environment. Barack Obama and Joe Biden took forward this idea of the New Democrats and brought it to this day. Republicans are now divided between the Old Bush-Reagan-Romney faction and the alternate Right of MAGA. MAGA stands for protectionism, isolationism, social conservatism, and anti-immigration.
The present US politics can be said as post-2000 era. The Republican Party is now dominated by MAGA while the Bush-Romney faction is somewhere between both MAGA and the Democrats. So now let’s discuss these two parties in detail.
Parties now
So, have parties always been the same? Are they stagnant? Not really. Americans today identify as a Republican, Democrat and Independent. But what do these terms mean? Why do people identify like that? Let us look in depth.
Republican Party
Started as a progressive party in the 1860s, when the US was in a Civil War. Since then, the party has evolved to be the GOP of the day. Today, the Republican Party is largely associated with conservative, nationalist and constitutionalist values. It believes in a strong interpretation of the US Constitution which is minimal government, a strong advocate for both the First and Second Amendments. It is pro-religion (pro-Christian), pro-family, pro-life on abortion, etc. It is against reproductive Freedom and Affirmative action as well. It supports a strong national security policy with an interventionist approach. In matters of governance, they are fiscally conservative with minimum government spending except for the military, supported Free trade and low taxes. Under MAGA, the GOP has become more socially conservative and wants an isolationist foreign policy, against immigration, pro-tariff, and a weak US dollar. Perhaps the only common aspect between both is that they are socially conservative and have low taxes. Hence, one identifying as Republican can be indeed confusing.
Republican Party has its strength in rural areas and suburbs. Its strength is in conservative Christians mainly Evangelicals, Whites without a college degree, White-Collar workers, farmers, small businesses and much more. It has been in recent times has been trying to reach out to Blacks and Latinos as well.
Democratic Party
Even though started as a very conservative; today is seen as a progressive party. Democratic Party has believed in a strong Federal Government ever since FDR initiated the New Deal. It believes in secularism, individual freedoms, and expansion of the role of government. They support higher taxes, and extensive government spending mainly for welfare and social security. Similarly, they support affirmative action, pro-choice on Abortion, restrictions on military spending, and pro-Human Rights. They stand for labour and unions along with the rights of minorities- mainly Blacks and Immigrants. They also advocate strict restrictions on guns. Progressives are more the exception in Democrats where in they support extensive social welfare policies such as Medicare, education, and much more. They support Palestine, call for the end to wars around the globe and seek more friendly relations with countries. They are more of an anomaly.
Ever since New Democrats emerged in the 1990s, the ideology of the party has changed. Today, democrats are the party of urban areas, and businesses, as well. Its support lies in urban areas and almost all major cities across the US are Democratic. They have extensive support amongst College-Educated Whites, Blacks, Latinos, other immigrant groups including Asians and Jews, and much more. Its support among the unions and the working class has been waning since Trump took charge of the Republican Party. Today, Democratic voters are more focused more on strong Foreign Policy than Republican voters which have turned more isolationist.
Region-wise, Democrats are number 1 in the coastal states, the New England region and border areas with Mexico. Republicans are the number 1 in the Mid-West, the American South and regions along the US-Canada border.
Despite trying to assign binary values to both, it has often backfired because a party always has a mixture of multiple ideologies across the spectrum and does not exactly point to the same thing. In recent years, the American political spectrum has been more and more polarised. Hence the idea of Republican and Democrat can also be an anomaly.
You can still be a Republican or a Democrat even if you have disagreements with your party on certain issues. As an independent you can be a part Republican and a part Democrat.
Steps involved in the elections
US elections are not a single event and it does not happen in a single day or a few days. An average election timeline expands to more than a year. Just a few months after the mid-term elections, the talk is now all about the Presidential Election. The sitting President usually by this time decides to run again. Similarly, many candidates started to show their interest in running for the presidency. All of these together contest amongst each other to reach the candidacy.
As per the rules of the FEC, one party can only have one candidate. This means, that out of a pool of candidates, only one can be nominated to represent the party. Unlike other countries where parties handpick or select the candidates, US politics has a unique system where the voters themselves can select the candidates. This is where caucuses and primaries step in.
Each contestant develops a group of followers across the 50 states to promote their names for candidacy. Now, to make the job easier, intra-party debates are conducted by parties and media outlets to make them more familiar to the voters and the public at large so that it makes it easier to make a choice.
After this, we have Primaries and Caucuses. There are two types of them- Open and Closed. As we have already mentioned earlier, it’s the parties that have control of this. Hence, Open Primary and Caucus allow anyone to vote for their favourite contender for the party while a Closed Primary and Caucus allows only registered party voters to participate in them. For example, Democrats can only vote in a Democratic Party Closed Primary while an Independent can also vote in an Open Republican Party Primary in addition to Republicans.
Democratic Party has 4253 delegates are allocated based on the population of each state. To win the nomination, a candidate needs to secure at least 2126 delegates. Republican Party has 2250 delegates of which it needs 1276 delegates to clinch the nomination. Similarly, the Green and Libertarian Parties have their own systems in place. These delegates along with Party leaders and members meet at their respective Party conventions to elect their candidate. This is a mere formality but such conventions are designed to energise the parties ahead of the elections.
After the respective parties confirm candidates, the official campaigning starts followed by the announcement of the Vice-Presidential Candidates. Unlike Presidential candidates, Vice Presidential Candidates are handpicked by the candidates and they have the major say. The traditional election period is said to be from the Labour Day to the first Tuesday of November. By October, Presidential Debates are held between the two candidates. The moderators and TV networks publishing them are handpicked by the Presidential Debating Commission.
In 2024, President Biden was the main contender for election from the Democrats. He has been at the forefront from the end of the Mid[ -Term elections in 2022. On the other hand, the Republican Party had multiple contenders ranging from ex-President Trump, Governor Ron DeSantis, Governor Chris Christie, Governor and Ambassador Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott. Lastly, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy was the outsider candidate with a surprise element. As the Primaries proceeded, one by one started to quit. The Republican primary was largely restrained to a Trump vs Haley match. By Super Tuesday, Haley also dropped out paving the way for Trump vs Biden rematch.
Bypassing the Presidential Debating Commission, both the Biden and Trump campaign decided on two Presidential debates. One in June and the other in September. With the first Presidential debate, Biden became too weak to contest again and thus after a month he dropped out of the race. He nominated Kamala Harris and handed over the PAC to her. In the DNC she secured the nomination while Trump secured his GOP nomination in the RNC. Both the candidates have announced their respective Vice President Candidates (VPs). Currently, all the Presidential debates are also over and early voting has started.
Let us know the candidates this time in 2024
The most talked about candidates this election are Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and their running mates while Jill Stein of the Green Party has also seen massive headlines this year.
Donald Trump
His politics can be expressed in a few ways, such as conservative-nationalist, Protectionist, isolationist foreign policy, and weak US dollar. Along with this, his strong areas have been low taxes and anti-immigration policy. In his first term, he had taken several radical decisions such as pulling the USA out of international treaties and commitments. His most popular domestic policy has been tax cuts mainly on millionaires and billionaires. His strength mainly lies in rhetoric rather than on policy which makes him quite popular to his base. The biggest failure of his term has been battling COVID-19 creating a massive health crisis in the country. His credentials are largely at question due to the cases he is involved in and for the January 6th insurrection in 2021.
In 2020, he was a continuation candidate while in 2024 he is more the opposition candidate which makes him have a better number. This time he promises almost the same set of ideas he campaigned on previously but with great vigour and rhetoric. He promises to close borders, deport immigrants, etc. On the economic front, he is likely to announce tariffs on imports and tax cuts for the rich. This policy will likely decrease the government revenue and widen the deficit. Another big discussion has been on Project 2025 and other sociocultural issues such as abortion, the end of DEI and the ramping up of the Federal Government. Although Trump has tried to stay away from the same, he hasn’t largely contradicted many of its ideas. On the Foreign Policy front, Trump has called for ending the Russia-Ukraine War but on the Israel-Hamas war, he would give a free hand to Netanyahu.
Why do people support Trump?
Donald Trump from 2015 has been trying his luck in politics under the banner of “Make America Great Again”. His entry into the field from a business background followed by his controversial opinions had garnered a lot media attention. Additionally, his politics is explained as populist in nature, going with the flow of the masses and not exactly with realpolitik. His takes on illegal immigration, racism, US involvement in foreign wars etc. have got a lot of support. From 2016 to 2024, he had a massive following called MAGA which tried to have a unique identity within the Republican Party. His speeches and approaches to handling media have moved the public to a cult-like following. Trump's strongest base is the white-non-college educated people with a slight tilt to the working class. In recent years, he has expanded his base to Blacks and Latinos as well.
Kamala Harris
Has a strong political experience as San Fransico District Attorney, California State Attorney, The Senator from California, and lastly four years as the Vice President of the United States. She holds the record of voting the highest number of tie-breakers in the US Senate- 33. She came in as the Change Candidate after Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Hence the repeat of the 2020 race has been avoided. Additionally, she has tried to balance between being part of the Biden Administration as well as being much more distinct and presentable than Biden.
She is a unique candidate in terms of both background and identity. She will be the African-American and Indian Descent to obtain the candidature and be a President if she successfully wins in November. Her main campaign slogan is "We are not going back and Hope". In terms of foreign policy, she is expecting to follow the same line as Biden, especially in Ukraine, NATO, Israel, and China. Economically Kamala Harris promises to bring down the prices of goods through price gouging. Also, she has called for an Opportunity economy which includes support for expanding Child Tax Credit, incentives for first-home buyers, and tax breaks for tips. Unlike Trump, she supports higher taxes on the wealthy and a 25% tax on unrealised capital gains for people with wealth above $400,000. She claims she will prioritise signing the Border Security Bill that was stuck in Congress on her first day in Office.
Can She pull it off?
Most of the Democrats have decided to support Harris after Biden withdrew. Her popularity and appeal skyrocketed after that but in recent days, her popularity has only stagnated, however, for a wide range of voters who do not like a 2020 rematch she is doing better. Also, for minority voters, she is better. Although, she is quite unpopular in rural areas and among older voters compared to Biden. The only way her victory can be guaranteed is through high turnout like in 2020. She continues to be pro-choice and a champion of abortion rights making her popular among women.
Jill Stein
She is the main third-party candidate after RFK Jr dropped out. She is from the Green Party and has been making significant strides through anti-Ukraine, anti-Israel stance. She is getting a wide range of voters who are fed up with both candidates- Trump and Harris. Additionally, several Arab, Muslim and Young voters prioritise the Israel-Palestine issue and the Biden administration’s continued support for Israeli actions in Gaza. She is successfully able to deviate, from potential democratic voters, but her impact cannot be calculated until the results are out.
Types of Voting and Ballots
We must understand that the US Presidential Election is not only the election for the President but also for both houses of Congress and other state houses. Hence, US Ballots are comprised of multiple options. Hence, the ballots have a bubbling feature which can be recognised by OMR or OCR machines.
1. In-Person Voting- Here, the voter must reach a voting booth, which is available only for the voting day ie. November 5th. The voter will fill the ballots and drop them in the allocated box at the centre.
2. Mail-In/Absentee Ballots- The US Postal Service in collaboration with the states, allows the people to apply for voting via mail. The applicants will receive the posts at home, which will have to be filled and dropped in various collection centres across the country. They will be collected and taken to counting centres. Those who are unavailable on November 5th or are travelling abroad, work abroad in consulates and embassies, and prominently the US military uses this feature for voting.
3. Early Voting- Like In-Person Voting, the voters can approach various polling stations days and weeks before the election day and drop in their ballots.
4. Provisional Voting- When the credentials of the voters are under question, they are instructed to use a provisional ballot. It wouldn't be counted until the identity is verified.
Election to the US Congress
Along with the election for the US Presidential Race, given that elections in the US are simultaneous in nature. This means that the elections to the US Congress and several other local races is simultaneously happening along with the race for the White House. The Entire House of Representatives has 435 seats and one-third of the Senate for re-election.
The most sought-after senate seats this time are Ruben Gallego(D) and Kari Lake (R) from Arizona, Thomas Sheehy(R) and John Tester(D) from Montana, Sherrod Brown (D) vs Bernie Moreno (R), Collin Allred (D) and Ted Cruz (R). There are a handful of house states in New York, California and Florida which will be must-watch this time and determine who will control the Congress.
Electoral College
The US Electoral College is the body of the US Presidential system, which elects the President and not by people directly. On the election day, voters elect the College. It is these College electors who choose the President and Vice-President. So now, the total number of the electoral college is 435+ 100= 535 and in addition to that DC has 3 electoral colleges, raising the total number to 538. Thus, a simple majority is fixed at 270, which means that the President needs 270 to win the election. The Electoral College system itself is a controversial topic, as critics claim that this is a flawed system and that it doesn’t look into popular votes or people’s choices.
Swing States
These are the states which are pivotal in deciding the winner. These have equal chances of turning red or blue. They are also known as purple states due to their Blue + Red Characteristics. This election has categorised seven states- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina as swing states. Out of this, Nevada for the past several elections has supported Democrats. Pennsylvania is the biggest prize this time with 19 electoral votes followed by Georgia. The Second District of Nebraska is also considered a swing region. The good old days of Ohio, Iowa, and Florida determining the election outcome are over.
Polls
Most of the opinion polls suggest a tight race with a small edge for Kamala Harris, but just like in 2016, the polls are under the margin of error making it a toss-up. Dr Allan Litchman, the Professor from Washington who has correctly predicted 9 out of 10 races has decisively stated that Kamala Harris will win the Presidency as per his 13-key model. The polls also predict Republicans to take control of the Senate while Republicans take control of the House.
Conclusion
The US elections 2024 for the President and several smaller races prove extremely consequential for US politics and Global Politics at large. Hence, who wins- Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be much more significant in terms of politics, policy and the larger implications for politics. Even global events such as the Israel-Gaza war, the Russia-Ukraine conflict all depend on the result of this election.
Note- This article is the author's compilation on the topic which is designed to improve the reader's knowledge on the topic rather than promote or demote a viewpoint.
Here's a book on American Politics.
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