The biggest Kerala political story of 2025 is the local elections, but currently, everyone is fixated on the Nilambur bye-election, which is scheduled to take place in a few days. After the resignation of P V Anvar MLA earlier this year, the Election Commission had called for a bye-election to the seat vacated by the MLA. The speciality this time is that the bye-election is held less than a year before the general election and the winner of this match will be an MLA for less than a year only. This is one of the reasons why experts regard it as a semi-final to the general elections next year.
Let us understand Nilambur Constituency better by understanding its Geography.
Geography of Nilambur
Most of us would know about a place called Nilambur. However, understanding a lot about it and the constituency concerned would be seldom known. Nilambur is a semi-rural constituency located on the Kerala-Tamil Nadu border. It is predominantly a forest area lying close to the Nilgiris. It also comprises some parts of the Silent Valley National Park. The only big town in the constituency is Nilambur (hence the name of the constituency) which is nicknamed as the "Teak Town". Located on the banks of the Chaliyar River, the town is known for its scenic beauty with lush vegetation.
The constituency also borders the Wayanad district to the North and Palakkad District to the South. The constituency is well-connected to the rest of Malappuram district and the rest of Kerala by State Highways and Railways. Nilambur Road is one of the very few terminus railway stations in Kerala. Administratively, Nilambur Taluk is one of the biggest Taluks in Kerala.
History and Politics of Nilambur
Politically speaking, the constituency is seen as a stronghold of the UDF notably the Congress Party. It is one of the very few seats in Malappuram district where Congress contests and won consistently. Aryadan Muhammed, one of the tallest leaders of the Congress party has been the MLA of Nilambur for three decades (1987 to 2016). Recently, there has been a slight change in that with an Independent running under the banner of LDF winning here in 2016 as well as in 2021. From being a UDF bastion, LDF has taken the seat two times by slim margins. Hence, there is no way LDF can be underestimated here.
At the same time, in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, 2024 and later in the bye-election, Nilambur stuck to the original character of backing the UDF candidate by extraordinary margins. If this seems an outlier then let's have a glance at the local numbers. Nilambur Constituency comprises seven grama panchayats along with the Nilambur Municipality. They are Vazhikadavu, Moothedam, Edakkara, Pothukal, Chungathara, Karulayi and Amarambalam. LDF controls Pothukal and Amarambalam Panchayats along with the Nilambur Municipality. Once the stronghold of UDF, the Municipality has switched to LDF. Vazhikadavu, Moothedam, Edakkara, Chungathara, and Karulayi are controlled by the UDF. This contrasts with the statewide trend where the Gram Panchayats are predominantly strongholds of the LDF and Municipalities tend to favour UDF.
Beyond Nilambur getting a new MLA, the implications of the bypoll are much more important for state politics. This bypoll is regarded as a semifinal but additionally, this election will be a referendum on Anvarism- the popularity and impact of PV Anvar MLA in local politics of Nilambur. This is why both UDF and LDF are more careful on this matter.
Knowing the election
This would be the third election in which the voters of Nilambur will be participating. After the Lok Sabha election 2024, the Lok Sabha Bye-election 2024 and now the Nilambur Assembly Bye-election 2025. It's likely that people will get fatigued out of that even if this is the most important bye-election yet. No doubt that the bye-election will be a referendum on the nine years of LDF rule as well as the role of PV Anvar as MLA. PV Anvar himself claims that this bypoll is an opportunity to register dissent against the current dispensation that he was also part of.
People's Side
Beyond this, there are several issues being this election that affect the people of the constituency and are grabbing the media headlines. The most highlighted issue raised by people in hilly across Kerala has been the issue of man-wildlife conflict. There have been several incidents where people were either killed or injured by animals. The church has been in the forefront of the same blaming the state government and local authorities has been on the forefront. Whom to be blamed for that has been an important question, given that the legal side is being dealt with by the central government while the implementation side is looked after by the state government. People are tired of them while both governments continue to blame each other.
Nilambur Bypass has been a long-standing demand of the people in Nilambur which is still not yet fulfilled. Another major demand of the local people has been the opening of the Karnataka border during the nighttime on NH 766 from Nilambur to Chamrajnagar via Bandipur. A 20 km stretch of the road passes through the Bandipur National Park which is environmentally sensitive. Rahul Gandhi MP had said that he would try to solve it at the Union level but there have been no steps. The Chamrajnagar district administration of Karnataka has kept the route closed for a long time citing environmental concerns. This disrupted the traffic and people's movement between Kozhikode, Wayanad and Malappuram districts to Mysore and Bangalore. If this is solved it would be beneficial for the people but at the cost of the environment.
One of the five projects of the K-Rail- the Nilambur-Nanjagud Railway line has been a long-standing demand of the locals. This will connect Nilambur to Mysore and reduce the travel time to Mysore, Bangalore and other towns in Karnataka. This project would ease the traffic on NH-766 and the 9PM-6AM ban on the highway can be bypassed by the people for travel to Mysore and Bangalore. However, this project has also been opposed heavily by environmentalists on both sides of the border. Although the stern opposition has come from Karnataka. If it becomes a reality, it will throw open the benefit of railways to Wayanad district as well.
Besides, there are other issues such as the ongoing highway work, improvement of the bus station in Nilambur, civic issues and Anvar's charisma and personality. The recent unfortunate death of Ananthu due to an electrocution has also raised a lot of uproar in the constituency. Lastly, we have various allegations and issues raised by PV Anvar against the police, the chief minister and the state government at large.
Now let us familiarise ourselves with various candidates, and the controversies surrounding them.
Candidates contesting this time
PV Anvar (TMC)
PV Anvar MLA himself is the most significant yet the most controversial candidate. His decision to run came as quite a surprise to the political observers. It was speculated that he would not contest the election and instead support the UDF candidate. Yet there was always a high chance that he would if he didn't have a favourable deal. And that is exactly what happened.
PV Anvar is a businessman who came to politics focusing on Nilambur and Wayanad. Through his populist rhetoric and anti-Aryadan family speeches, he vowed to take the seat away from UDF. In 2016, he became the LDF candidate in 2016 and won the stronghold defeating Aryadan Muhammed's son on his own turf. In 2021, he was reelected, but with a much slimmer margin defeating VV Prakash of the Congress. It's curious that when several LDF candidates won with big margins, P V Anvar struggled till the end.
Traditionally, he has always had close links with the Congress party until he ran as an independent two times in the Assembly as well as Lok Sabha elections. It is said that the main motivation for him to join politics was rooted in his business. Since 2018, he has been embroiled in several controversies. This included his visit to Africa, the building of an illegal check dam, and his remarks against the ADGP M R Ajith Kumar accusing him of corruption and sabotaging Thrissur Pooram in 2024. He also held press conferences speaking against CM Pinarayi Vijayan for not controlling the police before deciding to break the alliance with the LDF. He joined the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and tried to lead the operations of the party in Kerala. He then took a decision to fight CM Pinarayi Vijayan and his brand of politics (what he calls Pinarayism) come what may.
On 13th January 2025, he decided to quit his position as MLA leading to a bypoll. He did talks with several leaders of UDF trying to arrive at a compromise and even trying TMC to be made part of UDF. Since those talks failed, he decided to contest himself through TMC. But his nomination was cancelled citing technical reasons leading his nomination being cancelled. Although he will be contesting the election as an independent candidate with the backing of TMC. Aam Admi Party (AAP) and Trinamool Congress have together come in support of PV Anvar. TMC leaders at the national level- Yousuf Pathan. They were trying to bring Mahua Moitra and Abhishek Banerjee into the campaign as well.
On 6th June, he requested public donations to run his campaign for his re-election. PV Anvar's brand of politics has astonished many including critics. They have termed it as Anvarism, notably synonymous with P C George, Suresh Gopi and K B Ganesh Kumar who move across the spectrum without any fixed principles and rather feel to move with the flow. Is it mainly opportunism or is it a genuine effort to provide better to the people is yet to be explored. However, his improper communication and lack of compromise with UDF on a suitable candidate has taken away his entry to UDF.
Anvar is not to be underestimated. He has won in a UDF fortress, not a person to be frowned upon. For sure he will get a chunk of votes. Experts estimate it between (5000-10000), but the question everyone is wondering is who will benefit from it- UDF or LDF. No one expects Anvar to win by himself as an independent but his impact would definitely be significant in deciding the winner.
Aryadan Shoukath (UDF)
Well-known as a filmmaker more than a politician, is the UDF candidate for the second time in Nilambur. As the son of longtime MLA Aryadan Muhammed, is no alien to politics and elections. He is very well known for having progressive views and incorporating them into his films. He is even termed as anti-Muslim by fantatic organisations who still believe in traditionalism and conservationism.
Despite losing the 2016 election against PV Anvar, UDF has chosen him to win back the seat. He knows the constituency and the voters well, along with the experience of being the chairman of Nilambur Municipality and various other political positions. What better than in 2025 to take revenge against PV Anvar as well as the LDF and revive his political career. UDF was very sharp and practical in announcing his candidature in less than 24 hours after the election was declared which gave the alliance an edge ahead of others. He has the likeability and familiarity which gives him a national advantage. His party has entrusted him to take the daunting task of reviving UDF in the constituency as well as across Kerala. Losing one more time, in such a prestigious battle can be fatal for him. It is also his candidature that led to rising friction between Anvar and the UDF.
M Swaraj (LDF)
One of the tallest young leaders in the state of the CPI-M and the one who defeated five-time MLA K Babu in 2016, M Swaraj is a youth sensation. Well known for his oratory skills, charisma, and knowledge, M Swaraj is now the LDF candidate against Aryadan Shoukath and P V Anvar. Despite having been working in other parts of Kerala, M Swaraj is a native of Nilambur. He was actively involved in student and youth politics before entering the poll fray in 2016. Despite his best efforts, he lost once again to K Babu in 2021 by a margin of 1232 votes.
M Swaraj remains in the limelight mainly on TV and Social Media by being argumentative and articulative of his views and opinions on various issues. This has made him a very controversial figure in Kerala Politics. He is also one of the most hated leaders of Kerala's Right Wing due to his views on Sabarimala's women's entry and for being outspoken on Gaza. He is termed as anti-Hindu by them. Even his 2021 loss in Thripunithra to K Babu is said to have been due to his speeches on the Sabarimala issue.
By appointing M Swaraj for the prestigious battle, LDF played their cards well. He is the best candidate the LDF could have got in Nilambur. By this, LDF undid the initial advantages the UDF had achieved through Aryadan Shoukath. CPIM for the first time in years have brought a party candidate to take back the seat from PV Anvar. But the outspoken nature of M Swaraj does put him in a lot of trouble. His views on Gaza can alienate moderate voters is what many people feel. This is also a golden chance for Swaraj to re-enter electoral politics.
Mohan George (NDA)
With all the confusion and suspense, Mohan George as the BJP candidate was declared on the 1st June 2025. It came after a detailed discussion within the BJP, about whether to even contest the election or not. The initial reaction of the BJP after the announcement of the bye-election was that this was a useless and unwanted election. Why? This is because BJP in the last election failed to touch 5 figures in the 2021 election. This was a shock to political watchers in the state. BJP since 2011 has tried very hard to get a foothold in the state and they have indeed succeeded. Since then they have tried their best to milk every election by contesting them seriously. And now, for the BJP to say they are not interested in contesting the election and hand it over to BDJS is astonishing. Given that even BDJS gave up, the BJP asked a Kerala Congress leader Mohan George to contest.
Mohan George joined the BJP quitting the Kerala Congress and creating minor skirmishes within the UDF. By contesting a Christian candidate, the BJP has made its Christian outreach more explicit. The Kerala BJP was doing it in a very subtle way until the 2024 elections. Now, the BJP believes that gaining Christian votes is one of the masterstrokes to win seats in Kerala. Nilambur has a sizeable Christian voter base which can decide the electoral outcome. Additionally, Nilambur has man-wild conflicts, Church has been at the forefront of opposing the ruling LDF's policies. Hence, this is a shrewd way for the BJP to secure a few Christian votes.
BJP is campaigning against three other candidates but on three different issues. In no circumstance does, BJP believe it can win, but getting its core votes back to the 2016 level is essential for BJP to be a strong local contender. A decent performance in the constituency is also important for the newly appointed Party President Shri Rajiv Chandrashekhar.
Impact of the Election on Kerala Politics
Irrespective of whomever becomes an MLA, his life is short-lived and will have to take another test in less than a year. Additionally, this is a litmus test for both UDF and LDF on who will rule the state in 2016. The boost received from this victory is essential for both fronts to perform well in the upcoming local and lastly state elections. Personally, this is a do-or-die election for Anvar, Shoukath and Swaraj. If Shoukath and Swaraj get tickets next year will depend on their performance this time. For PV Anvar, this fight is everything- a battle for relevance. If lost, Pinarayi Vijayan can take a deep breath of relief against the allegations raised. For Mohan George, this is a new life and for BJP this is a battle of rightfully securing back their space. Also for BJP, it is a testing ground for the future of its Christian outreach programme.
Conclusion
The 2025 Nilambur bye-election will be an important political story ahead of the general elections. Experts see this as a semi-final but with a limited impact. No one sees this as a reflection of who will win the general election next year but this will surely lay the ground on who will get the upper hand. Irrespective of that, it is disheartening that the people of Nilambur have to go through the torture of having back-to-back elections every six months till May 2026.
Let us wait till June 23 for the results.
Do comment on who do you think will win the election!
Resources
Book1| Book2| Book3
References
https://thesouthfirst.com/karnataka/karnataka-protesters-feel-keralas-nanjangud-nilambur-railroad-plan-spells-disaster-for-environment-wildlife/
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/bangalore/ban-vehicles-night-bandipur-remain-karnataka-forest-minister-eshwar-khandre-9141150/
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/15-year-old-boys-electrocution-ignites-political-fire-in-nilambur-bypoll/article69670689.ece
https://www.deccanherald.com/india/kerala/bjp-names-mohan-george-as-candidate-for-nilambur-bypoll-in-kerala-3566393
https://frontline.thehindu.com/news/kerala-assembly-elections-2026-nilambur-byelection-preview-political-strategies/article69660272.ece
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/nilambur-bypoll-to-be-four-cornered-contest-101748803680935.html
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/ahead-of-nilambur-bypoll-anvar-pushes-for-udf-entry/article69446665.ece
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nilambur
https://www.onmanorama.com/news/kerala/2025/06/03/nilambur-byelection-date-results-candidates-anvar-swaraj-aryadan-past-elections-live.html
https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2025/Jun/11/star-campaigners-line-up-as-nilambur-bypoll-enters-final-week
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