Everyone wants to believe that the 2024 General Elections are a done deal, with the BJP gaining an absolute majority and Narendra Modi becoming the PM again. Is it a euphoria? Is this actually true? Is the opposition dead?
India will elect its Lower House of Parliament in April and May. 543 seats are up for elections with over 928 million voters eligible this time, making it the world's largest election exercise yet. The results will be declared on June 4th.
Current situation
Ever since 2019, the ruling BJP has become stronger, primarily sweeping the three states of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh by the end of 2023. It also secured a resounding sixth term in Gujarat and is now seeking a third term at the Centre.
The opposition appears to be weak after successive electoral setbacks, but it doesn't mean it has lost everything. In mid-2023, soon after the Congress victory in the state of Karnataka, major opposition parties came together to form the INDIA alliance. The alliance is the acronym for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.
Despite the formation and togetherness, there are several fault lines and a lack of progress within the alliance system. The alliance has failed to make a substantial difference in the electoral roadmap. Started to challenge the BJP juggernaut, the alliance is just standing on loose ends. Also, the entire opposition is not together yet, as several opposition parties are outside the alliance.
A Glimpse at 2019 Verdict
In the 2019 elections, the ruling BJP cleanly swept the Hindi Heartland states: Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, and Uttarakhand, while along with its allies, BJP did extremely well in Bihar, Maharashtra, Goa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and the North East. The home state of Modi, Gujarat, also gave him a massive push.
BJP was able to make inroads into West Bengal and Odisha, increasing its tally beyond 300. The only South Indian state where BJP did well was Karnataka, and partly well in Telangana. Together, the BJP-led NDA ruled with 353 out of 543 seats.
The opposition did well in the South: Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir. Although, certain opposition parties competitively fought in Odisha and West Bengal as the leading party.
The main question is not whether PM Modi will enjoy a third term or not, but how far his popularity is affected by anti-incumbency or whether he will once again be proven invincible. The contest reduces to a few numbers at hand.
Seat Share
Stakes in the Elections
This election means different things for different people. For BJP, it needs to secure a third term with a record victory, which they claim as the target of 370 seats. Through this, Modi will be the only leader to be re-elected a third time ever in Indian History after Jawaharlal Nehru. The magic is yet to be seen.
BJP wants to set multiple records and make historic long-term decisions. Its ideology calls for several controversial decisions it has made in the current term and it wants to fulfill. There is also a long list of defectors who have joined the party from across the spectrum in the quest for power. Accommodating them is indeed a big challenge.
Gaining the south of the country is going to be the biggest challenge for the BJP, but it has taken up the current challenge to at least reach double figures in a few of these states. BJP also wants to show invincibility despite the failures of the pandemic and the Manipur issue.
For the Opposition, unseating the BJP or at least bringing down its tally is the only objective. The INDIA alliance wants power to re-energise itself and gain back its lost glory. The Congress party is now out of power for the longest time in history, which is unsustainable. Leaders of the opposition parties are leaving to join BJP, which has weakened it in several states.
For smaller parties, holding on to their current tally and increasing it beyond the previous numbers is essential for survival. Since the BJP took charge in 2014, the bad time for smaller parties started, which they want to flip. Stopping the BJP would require tougher measures than alliances.
Simultaneous Elections
Along with Lok Sabha elections, there are simultaneous elections to four state assemblies as well. These include Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim. Except for Arunachal, BJP is not the primary player. Hence, the BJP's aim would not just be for a greater number of MPs, but also to get more MLAs in the respective states.
What BJP Promises
BJP, as the ruling party and the defender this time, is fighting on three core pillars this election which support the bigger Brand Modi. By 2047, BJP promises the vision of Viksit Bharat a developed India.
Hindutva- BJP, as a centre-right party, is well known for its conservative unapologetic Hindutva ideology. This appeal includes the removal of Art. 370, the special status of Kashmir, the Construction of the Ram Temple and its consecration, the Implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, the ending of the Hajj Subsidy, and much more. It also promises that UCC to be implemented if won.
Welfare- Modi govt. has been far more socialist than many previous govts. but the improvement in efficiency is something it vouches for. Jal Se Nal scheme, free rice for 80M people, ration during the COVID pandemic, free vaccines, and Ujwala Yojana among many others. Also publicised heavily across TV and Social media as the "Modi ki Guarantee".
Governance- PM Modi's governance is another pitch known for stability and effective management of the country and policies. Under this, there are two pillars- Infrastructure and a Muscular Indian Foreign Policy. The government effectively invested and improved large infrastructure in the country which appealed to a lot of apolitical voters. Also, a very nationalistic and unapologetic Foreign Policy exhibited under PM is also very captivating. The rise of India, its stance in the Ukraine War, the Vaccine Maitri initiative, rescuing Indians stuck abroad and calling out Western Hypocrisy have been the focus points of the Foreign ministry.
All three together make up the BJP's support for the 2024 elections and how it approached the voters. Moreover, the highlighted fact is the message of hope that sells as well as the extreme social engineering BJP as a cadre party has done on the ground.
What Opposition Offers
The opposition is highlighting the drawbacks of the government's policies as well as offering a promise to undo the damages as it claims. It says that the ideas of democracy, dissent, federalism, and secularism are going down and the ruling party has undermined all free institutions.
They validate it by actions taken against the opposition like through social media, legal issues, personal attacks and even jailing them. The opposition ruled states have faced challenges with governors and issues of funding as they claim it to be.
Religious hatred, lack of respect for secularism, jingoism, misuse of agencies, hate speeches, mob lynching etc. have also been heavily talked of. Today, the opposition also highlights the decreasing ranking on the world indicators to make their point.
The Opposition party manifestos have talked about repealing controversial legislations, and more welfare programmes to undo the effects of income inequality. They also promise Jobs for youth, schemes for women and farmers, and changes to taxation. Opposition supports constitutionalism as a counter to BJP's Hindutva.
Counterarguments to the Debate
The ruling party argues that they have won the mandate and they are duty-bound to execute what they have promised respecting the sentiments of the majority community. Also, the BJP largely believes that what it does is more aligned with the cultural understanding of the country which is rooted in Hinduism and other traditional values.
The opposition says that India is not monolithic and the lack of constitutional morality and its spirit is being violated. The ruling party is becoming more dictatorial misusing the system as per the critics. BJP says that all legal challenges are taken by independent agencies as part of the process and not part of undue influence.
Additionally, the BJP and its allies believe that the sliding democratic indices are due to Western hypocrisy and the agenda of foreign countries to undermine Mr Modi and India. The opposition also alleges that funding for BJP as a single party is much more than all parties together which has to do with cronyism present in the system.
Issues of the Elections
The elections are fought on issues, definitely promises and offers from parties exist but there is no shortage of discussions and pointed issues.
Federalism- The rights and powers of states have come down significantly in the past decade as per critics. BJP is a party known for centralisation. Jammu and Kashmir's statehood has been taken away. The opposition ruled states have alleged discrimination on multiple grounds. Agencies like ED and NIA have got more powers nowadays.
Governors- As heads of the state government they are required to sign the bill and take important decisions on multiple matters. As they are centrally appointed, they can create havoc with the state governments. The states allege governors are meddling in their affairs, not signing the bills and much more.
Electoral Bonds- Recently, the SC declared them unconstitutional. Bonds allowed companies and corporations to anonymously donate to political parties. Both government and parties have access to the data but not public. This means the public doesn't know the transparency of policymaking. The party decisions can be influenced by companies who want favours which is a perfect recipe for cronyism as advocated by the critics.
Jammu and Kashmir- The constitutional changes in Kashmir were the biggest achievement that BJP wants to highlight as its biggest achievement. The statehood of the state has been taken away and is yet to be restored while the BJP claims there is normalcy unlike before and it will be restored at the right time.
CAA- It allowed illegal immigrants from six non-Muslim religions of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh to be exempted from being detained under the Foreigners Act and to be granted citizenship for those who entered India before 2015. Criticism believes it is a policy of discrimination standing against constitutional principles. BJP believes this will help refugees who have been here for a long time facing religious persecution.
Inflation- India didn't have to go through a phase of rapid inflation but it did have a massive increase in consumer goods in recent times. BJP in 2014 came to power promising low prices on petrol, diesel, and LPG. The prices of all these have doubled since 2014 as the taxes on them have increased. Petrol in India today is higher than in the USA and a few countries in Europe; so is cooking gas. BJP defends its taxation as it funds its welfare projects.
Foreign Policy achievements- The biggest highlighted aspect of the Modi Govt. even by its critics was the improved International Relations under Modi's leadership. Increased soft power, hosting G20, strategic autonomy, vaccine maitri initiative, bringing back Indians stuck abroad and much more can be highlighted as the success of the government. Today it may not be wrong to say that fans of Mr Modi are present abroad as well.
Welfare- Excellently targeted delivery of welfare is an achievement that the Modi govt tries to bank on to win another term. During COVID-19, over 80 cr households were the beneficiaries of free food grains. The aspects of Jan Dhan Yojana, Ujwala, Jal Jeevan Mission, and Awaaz Yojana have seen mass acceptance and can swing the elections.
Unemployment- Agencies like Lokniti regard this as one of the biggest issues after the release of the ILO report. The situation in the country currently indicates a high unemployment rate among the educated youth.
Manipur- This would be one of the biggest internal security challenges that the Modi Government would have faced in the second term. The historic ethnic conflict between the Meithis and Kukis has erupted into a big violent clash between the two communities. The failures of the Central Govt. as well as the state govt. under BJP has been a big blot on the ruling party.
Ladakh- Environmentally sensitive region that has been facing a lack of development for a long. The current govt. has been developing the region to match up against China on the other side. Today, there are protests on one side for ignoring environmental concerns while on the other side believes the region is strategic and is developing the area for national security.
Legislations- The Parliament saw many controversial legislations being passed in the period ranging from CAA, RTI Amendment Act, UAPA Amendment Act, J&K Reorganisation Act, Farmer's Laws, Appointment of Election Commissioner's Act etc. The Parliament passed all these laws with brute majority and ignored the opposition. Lastly, it had to withdraw the three farmer laws.
Criminal laws- Recently, the Parliament passed three criminal laws in the country to replace the erstwhile British-enacted Penal laws. The ruling party believes that this move is essential for decolonisation and rewriting some old laws. The critics including opposition came in against the draconian provisions as well as the names which are in Hindi/Sanskrit.
Rahul Gandhi's BJY and BJNY- After a very long time in Indian politics, former Congress President Rahul Gandhi has conducted two nationwide journeys (South to North and East to West) calling to unite people. The Congress party believes both these yatras have energised the party and it will help them in the election.
Use and Misuse of Central Agencies- CBI, ED and IT are regarded as the strongest agencies in the country to enforce the law and financial justice. The Opposition and critics allege that these agencies have been used as puppets to target the opposition. The best example they cite is the arrest of Aravind Kejriwal. The ruling party says that the agencies are independent enough to take action against anyone. Studies show in the past few years 95% of the cases have been taken against the opposition only and none from BJP or allies.
Seats to Watch
Rohtak- The stronghold of Congress' Hooda Family had withered away in 2019 during the Modi Wave 2.0. This time Congress is trying its best that Randeep Hooda can win back the seat from Aravind Sharma of BJP.
Chindwara- This is the seat of Kamal Nath which he has always won for 25 years. Today his son is the MP and is contesting here. The BJP has been trying to erode this last bastion of Congress. A couple of MLAs had jumped to BJP making it tougher for the Congress.
Rae Bareli- Has been a Congress citadel since Sonia Gandhi contested elections. Last month Sonia Gandhi announced that she would not be running this time which makes this seat tough to defend. The BJP is extremely strong and can try to win here in the absence of Mrs Gandhi.
Alwar- Bordering Delhi, was a stronghold of Congress in Rajasthan. BJP won here both in 2014 and 2019. Today, the contest has become interesting with Congress stalwart Lalit Yadav contesting against Bhupendra Yadav.
Secunderabad- A swing seat in Telangana has voted always for the winning party. In 2004 and 2009, Congress won here while in 2014 and 2019, BJP won here. TRS had come close second in 2019. This time it is to be seen if the BJP will continue to hold on to the seat will Congress make a comeback or will BRS bring in a surprise.
Baharampur- Has been the citadel of Opposition leader Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary for a long time and one of the very few remaining footprints of the Congress in Bengal. Currently, he is facing a tough challenge from the ex-cricketer of India, Yousuf Pathan from Trinamool who will give a tough contest to Chaudhary.
Wayanad- Is currently Rahul Gandhi's seat but is seeing a triangular race between three national leaders. K Surendran from the BJP and Annie Raja of CPI are contesting to make it tougher for Mr Gandhi. Although, Wayanad remains a safe bet for Congress anytime.
Trivandrum- It is a triangular contest between BJP, CPI and Congress in Kerala's capital. Sitting MP and former USG of UN Shashi Tharoor is battling out against Minister Rajeev Chandrashekhar and former MP Paniyan Ravindran. This seat is a fight of personalities rather than politics.
Bangalore Rural- Being on the periphery of giant Bangalore city, there will be an interesting contest unlike last time which was a cakewalk for Congress will be a bipolar fight between Mr Manjunath of BJP and Mr D K Suresh. When the city votes for BJP, rural areas vote for Congress. D K Suresh is also the brother of stalwart leader D K Sivakumar and is known for a lot of controversial speeches.
Thrissur- The cultural capital of India and traditionally a left bastion is witnessing a triangular contest between K Muraleedharan(son of ex-CM Karunakaran), V S Sunil Kumar of CPI (former Kerala Minister), and Actor Suresh Gopi of BJP.
Mandi- Traditionally a BJP stronghold but is seeing a tight fight between Actress Kangana Ranaut and sitting MLA Vikramaditya Singh.
Important leaders and their Seats
PM Narendra Modi will be contesting for the third time from Varanasi. BJP leader and turncoat Jagdish Shettar is contesting from Belgaum. Four-term MP Assaduddin Owaisi is aiming for a big victory in Hyderabad. Tamil Nadu BJP President is fighting from Coimbatore, and Sitting Congress MP from Kalibor, Gaurav Gogoi will contest from Jorhat, Sitting MP Manish Tewari will contest from Chandigarh on a Congress ticket.
India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Home Minister Amit Shah will contest from Lucknow and Gandhinagar respectively. Senior BJP leader Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is defending the Jodhpur seat for the third time.
India's Finance Minister, External Affairs Minister and Railway Minister will not contest from Lok Sabha but rather stay as Rajya Sabha Members.
Opinion Polls and Number Game
Will BJP cross 370 seats is what everyone is looking for. Maharashtra is a four-cornered contest and is crucial for all parties.
Three states that are facing tight and crucial contests are Maharashtra, Bihar and West Bengal. These three states will decide the fate of the INDIA alliance and will also if the BJP overperformed last time. South will also be a very interesting place to see if BJP can make inroads. If BJP gets a few seats from TN, Kerala and AP; it is a massive gain for the party and an end game for the opposition.
There are 250 seats which are direct contest between the Congress and the BJP. Most of them as mentioned lie in the North. The advantage here lies with the BJP. Congress, the principal opposition has become too weak to challenge the BJP neck to neck, especially in a national election. It would be surprising if Congress could at least defeat the BJP in more than twenty seats here. There are close to 150 other seats where BJP's presence is minimal or the impact of BJP's contest is minuscule. Here the contest is between regional parties and the Congress. In the other 100 odd seats, it is a direct contest between BJP and regional players.
Beyond this, there are 50-odd sears where contests are between Regional parties like North East, Odisha, AP etc. Here both BJP and Congress are struggling to make some gains. BJP will have to make inroads into these areas to secure 370+. Most of the polls suggest that the BJP will have a comfortable tally to form the government and NDA will cross more than 370 seats. NDA crossing 400 is quite hard as per the numbers coming out. The INDIA alliance is poised to win anywhere between 100 and 150. Others are expected to reach 100.
All these are just speculations and predictions, the exact numbers will be out on June 4th, till then it's a long and exciting wait for everyone.
How to Vote this time? You should be a registered voter and think twice before deciding whom to vote. All parties have released their manifestos and most of the candidates for all the seats have also been announced. You can decide whom to vote for based on the candidate's profile.
Conclusion
Irrespective of the verdict which is awaited on June 4th, the world will witness a massive extravaganza of Indian elections, the world's largest democratic exercise. Hope all the winning sides will keep their promise and work in the interest of the people and not just the voters they sought votes from. Democracy is not just about elections, the role of opposition is very important. Each and every elected MP must pledge to the values of democracy and fulfil their duties.
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