People often assume that voters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are driven by uneducated and illiterate masses mostly in North and West India. This is not true, even though BJP since 2014 has made inroads into new parts of India and even barged into rural areas, BJP's traditional or core votes have always been urban-centric. Since BJP's emergence in the late 1980s and the unprecedented rise in the 1990s, BJP has always dominated urban areas of North, West, Central and some pockets of South India. Since 2015, the BJP has also established a strong foothold in Urban Areas of the North-East such as Agartala, Guwahati, Imphal and many more.
BJP in 2004, lost the election heavily as the message of BJP- India Shining worked only in Urban pockets of India. Even then the BJP held on to almost all of India's mega cities. Whereas in the 2009 election, the BJP lost most of it to Congress in a surprise. The party was able to cling to only one mega city- Bangalore. In 2014, the BJP once again gained everything it lost. Even when Karnataka was extraordinarily swept in 2023 by the Congress, the metropolis of Bangalore saw BJP racing ahead. Even when the claims of South India being free of BJP, the only areas where BJP still has a strong presence in the South are the urban areas. Hence we understand that BJP winning urban India is not a coincidence but rather a strong urban-centric pitch it makes.
Read the latest news capsuleWhat makes Urban Areas Special?
It is often said that India's heart lies in villages. But since the 1990s liberalisation, there has been massive migration away from rural to urban areas. Hence India's demographics have undergone an unimaginable change. Also, liberalisation has brought a new entity to India- the middle class. Urban areas have shown the swelling of the upper middle class with incoming jobs, increased hikes and economic prosperity. All these factors have made cities in India more important than ever.
Urban areas have a concentrated population, with diverse demographics, whose voting behaviour can be complex. Largely people in urban areas focus on macro-issues and they will be easily influenced by general factors. Most urban areas vote on economic issues. Urban areas always had unique policy issues, which made it tougher to get people to vote. Cities are the centres of economic activity that has prompted people to search for policies that help them the most. Fundamentally for a business or an enterprise to thrive needs a risk-free environment, crime-free surroundings, and stability. From chaos and confusion, today most of urban India has achieved peace and stability.
Today, we can see cities have also become more important for political parties to gather manpower and funds for their activities. Parties receive extensive donations from the upper middle class, the rich and industrialists all present in big cities.
Why BJP wins Urban Areas?
Demographic factor
Today, the BJP is the number one choice among Youth, Middle Class and Upper Caste. These are the main groups which dominate the cities and megacities of India. These are also the communities in India, which oppose change and support the status quo. Also, with more immigration and the changing nature of cities, the BJP has received more support in these pockets. Since 2014, BJP has been the main choice for younger voters who are entering educational institutions, and job markets, starting their careers, earning and saving money.
Economic factor
Congress Party was mainly known for its socialist policies and the post-independence era saw issues such as nationalisation and socialism which betrayed businesses and communities which have always benefitted from trade. Congress is never seen as pro-business and the party of the free market. From the mid-1990s to 2004, the middle class were the beneficiary of India's growth story. Hence, the credit of the same directly went to Vajpayee's BJP. They were an important actor in the "India Shining" campaign of the BJP. In big cities, BJP is synonymous with stable growth, pro-business, prosperity, etc. Many Hindu upper castes also see the BJP protecting their economic security and bringing in economic stability. Despite the successes of UPA-1 and 2, Congress never marketed it effectively which led to its wipeout.
In a lot of states which were known for multiple problems and that were considered risky for business such as mafia, crimes, financial issues, etc. BJP in many of these states was able to overcome it and establish a proper system to improve the stature of these regions. This is true in MP, Gujarat, UP, North East, Haryana etc. This is something which has been lauded by everyone on the aisle not just the Hindus or Middle-Class. BJP also portrays itself to be the party of law and order. Hence, merely restricting the BJP to the Hindutva party is incorrect.
Political factor- Nationalism, Arithmetic and Narratives
In any country, it is the middle class that decides its political discourse regime's ruling policies. And as always Urban areas vote very distinctively from Rural areas. For example in the US, Democrats dominate the cities, in the UK it is the Labour, in Australia it is the Labour, in Canada it is the Liberal Party and in India it is the BJP. While cities in the West are more Left-leaning and have Liberal voting choices, in India it is the opposite.
Due larger apolitical population, the voter turnout in Indian cities is lower. Why? Your voting preferences largely vary depending on the role of government plays in your life. Then only you will demand change. In rural areas you are more dependent on the government hence your vote happens to be more pragmatic. While in urban areas, we are directly benefited by companies, enterprises etc. which makes us more caring on economic issues and prompts us for stability. We are no longer dependent on government changes. Hence, we can see your vote will be status quo in nature. This gives rise to apolitical voters who will vote on the basis of religion, nationalism, personality issues etc. In this case, we can see BJP doing excellent campaigns will surely have an advantage.
Nationalism has been the most weaponised rhetoric in the BJP. Even though almost everyone in the country is patriotic and nationalistic, these divisions are more evident in the urban regions. People in urban areas tend to vote for issues of national security, anti-terrorism rhetoric, anti-Pakistan sentiments etc. A lot of people today also believe that the Modi government has rooted out corruption and terrorism; made India safe and is ready to respond to any threats in the same language (surgical strikes or airstrikes) etc. Most of the NRIs who are fond of Modi's foreign policy are mainly BJP voters back home. This potentially can influence the votes of their family back home.
Brand Modi
PM Modi's rise has been associated with containing bureaucracy, pro-rich and pro-business policies in Guajrat which made it a top destination for ease of doing business. Even today, the BJP was able to tame the urban areas of Gujarat but not the rural areas. He became the PM riding on the popularity of the Gujarat Model (governance, industry and infrastructure) mixed with tip-top PR work. A large margin of BJP's vote today is also due to the face of Modi.
Today Modi government's schemes such as Skill India, Make in India, Atmanirbhar Bharat, Digital India, etc. No party has ever been so urban-centric in approach and governance in recent times. The extensive road and rail development in the country is unparalleled. The idea of Gatiman Express, bullet trains, metros, Vande Bharat etc. are meant for its urban audience.
Religious factor
BJP as we know has Hindutva as its core ideology. The Rise of the BJP in the 1980s and 1990s have been related to two significant events- Mandal Politics and Mandir Politics. Both of which are polar opposites. Post-Mandal, Upper castes rallied behind the BJP which gave BJP the foothold in cities initially. Hindutva now intended that the religion would unite the castes under one umbrella. After the Ram Mandir Rath yatra followed by the Babri Masjid demolition, the BJP was now th favourite of conservatives and fanatics. This was followed by the decreasing popularity of the Congress party among the Hindus.
BJP's core vote is largely driven by both Hindutva and unbashed nationalism. A lot of Hindus believe that being Hindu essentially makes them more Indian or that being an Indian requires the acknowledgement of Hindu values. This feeling is higher amongst BJP voters. Also, Hindus have become more nationalist and are able to relate to the Modi government's narratives better. Issues such as Article 370 abrogation, UCC, Ram Mandir, anti-conversion etc. have always had their presence in the BJP manifesto. These poll promises have gained intense popularity among urban audiences. The earlier divisions of caste have vanished within Urban areas leading to more consolidation under the Hindu Umbrella which is the RSS-BJP vision for the country.
Cadre- The Grassroots
BJP has the best cadre-based party system in the country. As a cadre party, BJP-RSS has extraordinary ground workers, etc. They can pick for local issues, understand people's pulse and take it upwards. There has been excellent management of narratives at both macro and micro level. BJP has always had a general narrative at the national level but has always had small issues moving at the lower wrung.
Media and Social Media
Beyond the idea of media as the fourth pillar of democracy, it reflects people's voices, raises their concerns and importantly bridges the gap between people and the government. Earlier there was only limited media presence and state-controlled media. It is after the 1990s, that there was the proliferation of private media. Most of these were urban-centric and reflected the views of the middle class. Since, 2013, BJP has effectively used media to increase its popularity and come to power.
India has the second-largest number of internet users and an active social media base which uses the latest tools. BJP IT cell has exploited this vast user base to its advantage. Hence, the main target of the same was people living in cities and youth. Hence it is a consistent and reliable votebank of the BJP.
Fall of the Congress and the rise of AAP as an alternative
BJP has been increasing its dominance in cities mainly due to the weakening of the other political forces. Nationwide, BJP's main challenger is Congress but its performance in many urban areas has been abysmal. The only big cities today Left parties would be those in Kerala. After the loss of Kolkata and other important cities in North-East. Since 2014, the Aam Aadmi Party has proven to be a tangible leftist alternative to both Congress and the Left Front. Most of AAP's electoral pitches have been aimed at urban audiences who were looking for alternatives. AAP highlighted civic issues, problems faced by the urban poor, public health and education, crumbling infrastructure etc. AAP demolished the Congress fort of Delhi; and Congress strongholds such as Surat, Gandhinagar, etc. AAP has also cut the votes of Congress in key cities of Gujarat. Perhaps the two big cities Congress still has committed vote share would be Mumbai and Bangalore; parts of Ahmedabad, Chennai and other cities in Kerala such as Kochi, Thrissur and Kannur.
Are South India's Urban areas actually BJP-free?
Historically local body elections are the ones which the BJP does its best. There are several pockets in the southern states where the BJP performs excellently and has a committed vote share. Apart from Karnataka, there's no state BJP came to power directly. Telangana is the state where BJP has had extensive electoral success. In Kerala, the BJP has crossed a double-digit vote share and also has been a strong player in regional politics. In Tamil Nadu despite having only a single-digit vote share, it has four MLAs won with the help of AIA-DMK.
In 2020, we discussed the strength of the BJP in Kerala and areas of its influence. Even though BJP's victories started with ruling a few panchayats, its character was always urban-upper class-centric. BJP is the second-largest party in Trivandrum Municipal Corporation for multiple terms and it has also been winning a few wards in Kochi Municipal elections. Also, the two municipalities BJP to ever come into power are Palakkad and Pandalam. BJP has effectively used Sabarimala rhetoric in Kerala and increased its support among conservative Hindus and Upper-castes.
In Telangana, Secundrabad and parts of Hyderabad city have always had a BJP presence. BJP has been trying to capitalise a lot to be the runner-up. Both the MLA and MP of Secundrabad are from the BJP. Similarly, in 2020, the BJP barged into the TRS strongholds of Hyderabad to be the second-largest party in the city's Municipal Corporation. The party was effective in using polarization and painting TRS as a pro-Muslim party. Telangana would be the main state in the South which BJP would aim at.
In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is strong in the Kongunadu region and also has been present in areas bordering Kerala like Kanyakumari and Coimbatore. BJP also recently opened its account in Chennai Municipal Corporation. Unlike other South Indian states, caste combinations are the major hurdles for the BJP in expanding its base. But BJP's slow growth in these states has been steady and it will easily be able to get more support in the upcoming times.
Conclusion BJP's dominance in urban areas is extraordinary. The rise of the BJP has been attributed to factors of religion, nationalism and economics. BJP is no longer the party of just Hindutva but also the party of the middle class, the urban population and youth. Aspirations both domestically and abroad have convinced me why the BJP deserves more chances. Nationalism, Economic stability, Urban centric electoral pitches, have made the BJP stronger which also makes it the richest party in the country. That said, the BJP is no longer just the party of Urban India, it has bridged its electoral gap by barging into rural areas, villages, tribal areas and much more. BJP also receives a lot of votes from Dalits, OBCs and lower classes.
If the opposition is serious about defeating the BJP, it should not opt for Rural areas over urban rather balance it out. Congress will never be able to rule several states like Urban states like Maharastra and Gujarat without the support from cities. BJP is also slowly expanding in the south focusing on Urban voters which both national and regional parties have been ignoring for a long time. This is another mistake the united opposition is making and still continues to turn a blind eye. Until then the education, youth and the rich will always keep voting for BJP.
References
- India Today Conclave- https://youtu.be/EGtMQOWcyfQ?si=lLDF8VnxXEYgDwDM
- The Hindu- https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/the-way-people-vote-and-why/article26913896.ece
- Pew Research- https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/06/29/religion-in-india-tolerance-and-segregation/
- Kumar, S. (2020). Verdict 2019: The expanded support base of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 5(1), 6-22. https://doi.org/10.1177/2057891120907699
- Livemint- https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/IchdPnZwNHmvwAxMXqijmI/Which-way-will-the-new-urban-Indian-voter-tilt.html
- Ganguly, S. (2020). Indian Politics & Policy: Vol. 3, No. 1, Spring 2020.
- Auerbach, A. M. (2015). India’s urban constituencies revisited. Contemporary South Asia, 23(2), 136–150. doi:10.1080/09584935.2015.1028026
- Sahana Udupa (2018) Enterprise Hindutva and social media in urban India, Contemporary South Asia, 26:4, 453-467, DOI: 10.1080/09584935.2018.1545007
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