When we talk about Gujarat, we feel we are talking about a very rosy picture in today's time. The rhetoric of being PM Modi's home state and Gujarat Model has been there for a decade imprinting in our minds that BJP is unbeatable in the state. In both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP swept winning all 26 seats. BJP also has been ruling the state undefeated for 27 years. Even though all these facts remain unchallenged but the entire picture is not visible from here. We will have to go in-depth to understand Gujarat more than what we tend to believe it is.
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The monotonous view of Gujarat's politics changes the moment when we understand that Gujarat has a had a history of strong bipolar politics like many other states in India. Congress which is the primary opposition party has always had a strong foothold in the state and it was not "Modi and BJP everywhere" unless the most recent elections extensively killed the party.
Read- How congress got its priorities wrong in 2022- Congress Party making the wrong headlines- Bharat Jodo Yatra and a lot more.
Nature of Gujarat Politics and Elections
Historically Congress has been the dominant political force in the state until the arrival of Janata Dal and later BJP came into the picture. Janata Dal and BJP became dominant forces until Congress bounced back with the fall of Janata Dal. 1985 was the most notable election in history which saw Congress under Madhavsinh Solanki winning 149 out of 182 seats which was a massive victory and record until BJP broke it in 2022. Since then Congress and BJP were the top contenders in a tight bipolar contest until recently.
Gujarat has been famous in Indian politics being known as a lab for political experimentation for BJP. Whatever BJP had experimented with in Gujarat has proved successful and has been replicated at the national level and even nationwide. Prominent examples are Hindutva, the Gujarat Developmental Model, Bureaucratisation, the Personal branding of Modi, Hindu-Muslim polarisation and a lot more. Unlike other states, Gujarat is extremely urbanised, which makes it easier for BJP to try out new experiments.
Gujarat is also a state with massive development in urban areas but rural and tribal areas still remain the same. Similarly, Muslim-dominated areas are often ignored by leaders. Unlike many other states in India, Gujarat has a majority and minorities living in segregated communities. Pockets of Ahmedabad having sizeable minority population is not seeing enough development compared to other areas. Even if Economic indicators are strong, Gujarat still lacks behind on various social indicators. Hence, Gujarat is not only bipolar in the political sense but that nature is reflected everywhere.
BJP since the late 1990s remains the major player and the state for three decades has been a defacto one-party ruled state. In the recent past, it can only match the Left front's rule in West Bengal. BJP's major strength comes from urban centres, middle-class voters, business communities etc. Congress is the party of rural voters, the lower middle class, the poor, tribals, etc. Region-wise BJP is extremely strong in Central Gujarat which is urban-centric with big cities like Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Kheda, Dahod, Anand etc and Southern Gujarat which has the city of Surat. Congress has been extremely strong in North Gujarat and Kutch. The strength of both parties is quite even in Saurashtra which has cities- Jamnagar, Rajkot, Porbandar, Bhavnagar, Junagadh etc.
Congress party in Gujarat:- Has it been a weak force?
Historically having the upper hand in state politics has always helped the party in all elections. Gujarat is one of the rare states in which Congress gets a committed vote share and the party has a more definitive structure than many states in India. The maps are clearly indicative of Congress's strength. (attached in the subsequent sections)
Even today Congress party is the dominant force in North Gujarat which has districts- Banaskantha, Patan, Palanpur, Aravali, Mehsana, Surendranagar, and Gandhinagar. Other than the urban districts of Gandhinagar and Surendranagar, Congress is extremely strong. Similarly in the Kutch region, Congress has a foothold. There are several Congress forts in the state that BJP could never breach. Even in Modi's home constituency of Unjha in Mehsana, Congress won in 2017. Congress is also strong in other parts of the state like Anand, Tapi, Narmada, Amreli, Porbandar, Somnath etc. It also has very significant strength and foothold in minority-dominated areas, tribal belts and a lot more. There are several inroads where the BJP flag had never been there, but the Congress flag is still present.
Most of BJP leaders including Mr Modi and Anandiben Patel hail from North Gujarat- Stonghold of Congress.
Starting from 2011 when the Gandhinagar Municipal Council was established Congress was the dominant force, winning always in the Council elections until 2021 when BJP got a decisive majority. The bureaucratisation of the Gujarat Government and Governance has put little space for opposition and lack of faith in government or the need for change in government has stopped, people have been-more status quo oriented.
Since 2002, every state election saw Congress on the upward slope with the party consistently increasing both its vote share and seat share; on the flip side despite BJP's increasing vote share it had a shrinking seat share which hit a rock bottom in 2017 where it saw a bleak loss in front of the eyes but luckily Modi magic worked. Congress scored 77 out of 182 restricting BJP below 100. In the majority of the seats, the win and loss margin has also been significantly low.
In the Lok Sabha elections, rewinding back to 2004, Congress got 12 seats out of 26 which is close to half and in 2009, it got 11 seats which is one seat less but the diff between the vote share between both parties was a mere 4%. But in 2014 and 2019, saw BJP's vote share skyrocketed by more than 50%. But even though there were several assembly segments Congress still won. In the fact of Assembly Elections- Congress and BJP had always been neck in neck with both getting more than 40%. It is until recently that when BJP even crossed the 50% threshold in a state assembly election which it broke in 2022 despite staying 27 years in power.
Elections 2022: A unique contest
After 27 years the BJP was seeking a new term. From 2017, Congress was in relatively a better position. But since 2019, Congress lost two dozen MLAs in defection to BJP, hence its seat share was merely in the 50s. A lot of other factors which we will subsequently cover have changed the Congress party's fate in the state. Even then there was no consistent attempt by Congress since 2017 to improve the party structure in a way to defeat the BJP.
The election in Gujarat since 2002 has always been about Modi. It amplified post-2014 when Modi's name was also used in the state elections. As multiple news channels covered in their ground reports, this election was led in Modi's name and BJP was more than happy to give a nationalistic undertone. There were a lot of voters who voted solely because of Modi. Hence when the results came out on 8th December BJP made a new record beating Madhavsinh Solanki's record, getting its sixth straight term and also the Congress recording its worst-ever performance in the state with 156 and 17 seats respectively. Opposition in the state is completely decimated.
Almost all the big cities voted saffron which is also indicative from the map. Only the city of Porbandar remains an exception.
How Congress party killed itself?
From a strong player, with a committed vote share, having a system got decimated in this election from a good tally of 77. Similarly, there are hundreds of reasons why Congress lost. Before 2022, we will have to see how Congress cornered BJP in 2017.
In 2017, Rahul Gandhi was actively campaigning with full force with the strong involvement of national leaders, and a strong agenda- eyeing victory. He tried to enter temples bringing back Hindu votes hence it did help the party. Similarly that time, there was a Patidar agitation which was burning against the BJP. The Caste combination of Thakors, Patidars, and OBC helped Congress. Thakors are a fixed votebank of the Congress in the state. The youth trio- Alpesh Thakor, Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mevani made a massive formidable force against the BJP. Most important was the role of Ahmed Patel in shaping the party structure and being the backbone of the party in Gujarat. He was also one of the sole leaders of Congress who can manage and micromanage like how Amit Shah can do for the BJP. All these helped Congress bounce back in 2017 which is commendable.
The most important reason why Congress couldn't repeat its performance has been that it never took it forward and didn't work properly until a few months before the election. In between both elections, a lot of issues and crises happened which has negatively hampered it. Before the elections, the party virtually gave up its fight because it believed it couldn't defeat the BJP. Hence the morale of the party was absent way before the elections.
Death of Ahmed Patel and the destruction of the party structure
The death of Ahmed Patel was a big blow to Congress not only in Gujarat but also across the country because he was a very formidable leader who has the ability to oversee the big picture, allocate resources and a lot more. His election to Rajya Sabha was also dramatic when he defeated Amit Shah's plans as well. His death meant a vacuum in the party that has left unfilled. Unlike BJP, Congress lacks massive cadre-based support. So to actively do electoral campaigns, individual candidates have to make the effort. Ahmed Patel was the one who arranged funds and resources for the party. In 2022 there were no proper funds locally so Jignesh Mevani had to crowd-source his funding for the campaign.
Withering away of Party Structure- Congress used to have a very strong base until the death of Ahmed Patel and later in 2019 defections and distrust started which led to the downfall of the party starting from the 2021 Municipal Elections.
Not being able to convert anti-incumbency to votes
With 27 years in BJP, there was a lot of anti-incumbency on the ground. But will they vote for a change and can Congress bring in the needed change was a question. Most congress voters didn't want to vote because of the defections. They believe that leaders are cheating them. Hence there was massive anger which led to a very low voter turnout that helped BJP, even increase its vote share. Any BJP voter randomly would say Modi is doing well but not the team that he leads, or the entire cadre is not up to the mark, but the same person is not ready to accept the Congress.
Wrong Strategy and no face
As discussed before in previous articles, Bharat Jodo Yatra has not helped Congress anywhere till now. In the poll-bound state of Gujarat, national leaders were absent, state leadership was in disarray, and they only had an extremely hyper-local campaign which hardly caught the eyes of people. Rahul Gandhi who was championed in 2017, wasn't hardly present. On the other side, AAP campaigned as if it would topple the strong BJP government. There was no face for the party, both national nor state leaders didn't project any leader to counter both Modi and Kejriwal.
BJP's strategy- Modi+Hindu+Development
BJP gave tickets to Congress defectors from Tribal areas because they have winnability, hence Tribal areas went with BJP and not Congress. BJP's strategy in the state has been BJP in Gujarat is Congress Yukt Bharat. Defecting leaders like Alpesh Thakor and Hardik Patel were given seats and they won. No Muslims are given tickets by BJP amplifying Hindutva. To counter minority consolidation, Hindutva + Caste combination + UCC rhetoric helped BJP bank on Brahmin+Patidar+Baniya+OBC votes even in the minority-dominated seats. BJP won 14 out of 17 Muslim dominates seats probably a lot of them for the first time due to splitting of votes. Communalism in Gujarat favours BJP which is why BJP revokes the 2002 Riots each time. Muslim areas haven't developed, was a common complaint including places like Godhra. Congress is stamped as a Muslim party and BJP as Hindu Party. The question of Gujarati pride is also high in Mr Modi, which is why Gujarat Pride is seen in Modi by a lot of locals. No BJP rebel could harm the BJPs chances. The BJP rebel in Vadodara won and it's highly probable that he will be taken back in the party. BJP hadn't given a single ticket to a Muslim this time on the grounds of winnability, ensuring that religious polarisation still is alive.
Defections
Congress just sat back and did nothing to stop its MLAs and leaders from waiting in queue to join the BJP. Most of these leaders, along with them took away their voters to BJP. People have lost trust in Congress leaders who will jump ship at any time. People don't want to waste votes hence it's possible that people may not vote in the near future. As the party loses multiple times, it will lose its ability to fight and near its death.
The rise of X factor- AAP
In a bipolar state, a third party came in 2021 and became the principal opposition in Surat Municipal Corporation and demolished the Congress in Gandhinagar which it always used to win. AAP took Congress's vote share, split the votes and damaged it. Congress couldn't do and didn't try to do anything to protect itself from AAP's agenda. No surprise in 2022, when AAP took 13% of the Congress vote share and demolished the party. AAP also never criticised Modi, or his Hindutva but rather focused on the lines of rich vs poor, education and freebies. Kejriwal talks only about class-based issues which allowed him to flex his ideology. AAP has replaced Congress in South Gujarat as the second most important party. Even in the city of Morbi which Congress won in 2017 and the bridge collapse tragedy happened, Congress lost.
Demolition of its forts
Unlike popular perception, BJP isn't invincible in Gujarat's several seats. Fourteen seats of Gujarat have always been the bastion of the Congress party come what may, they had never seen a BJP MLA. Several Congress bastions were demolished only because AAP took away Congress votes. Congress virtually did nothing to prevent the breaking of its forts. No lessons learnt from Goa. BJP couldn't easily break its record of 121 and win 156 easily because of this. Several seats BJP won for the first time which they had never won before by defeating the Congress in Amreli, Aravalli, Banashkanta, Palanpur, Mandi, Jhagadia and Vyara, in addition to Mandvi, Borsad, Mahuda, Garbada which BJP had never won since the creation of the state in 1962. A party which cannot hold on to its core voters in its own stronghold is literally dead.
Comparison map
Is Congress Dead?
On paper, it still has won more than 27% of the vote share and still has got some seats. Its hardcore vote share is intact but it is not enough to perform decently. So practically the party is dead until the party wakes up and starts working the moment this article is put; otherwise, there is a high chance that it will face a whitewash with AAP eclipsing Congress completely. Without a proper cadre, there is no way it can take on BJP, similarly, it needs to get back the urban votes.
Despite all odds, Congress managed to hold on to Khedbrahma, Anklav, Vav, Danta, Danilimda and most importantly Jamalpur-Khadia in the massive saffron sea of Ahmedabad city. Jignesh Mevani won from Vadgam in Banashkantha. It also after a very long time won the city of Porbandar through a tactical alliance with NCP. The clock is ticking and 2027 is another wake-up call- do or die.
All is not gone, Congress can come back, but it will have to face a new challenge AAP which has got much stronger than before. An important fact still remains that an average minority voter in Gujarat still continues to have more faith in Congress than in the AAP.
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