Kerala Demographic Challenge and the Way Forward

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#opinion Kerala is a state that is often considered one of the best places to live in India. It ranks high on multiple indices of the NITI Aayog and boasts impressive Human Development Indicators such as literacy rate, healthcare, education, and low corruption. This success is attributed to the contributions of visionary leaders, irrespective of political affiliation, as well as public participation in socio-politics, policymakers, subject experts, the erstwhile Travancore Kingdom, and many others. This collective effort has led to what is known as the Kerala Model of Development. The state is among the top ten in terms of both GDP and per capita income. Despite Kerala's significant progress in quality of life and human development parameters, there are other fronts where this success is lacking. Today, Kerala is in the news for negative reasons such as a financial crisis, decreased revenue, rising debt, high unemployment, brain drain, and other challenges. While some issues are ov

Congress heading for the good or worse- Presidential Poll, Rajasthan crisis, Leaders Exiting, and Bharat Jodo Yatra

The Congress party has been in the headlines in the country for the past two months and will continue to be so. The question is whether it is for the right reason or not. A couple of incidents brought Congress into the limelight even more than the BJP. Keeping the Gujarat and Himachal elections aside, we look into various issues the party has made headlines about and how will this lead the Congress. Yatra has crossed 1000 km. 

#opinion #analysis 

Leaders exiting party 

Once a strong party, an umbrella party which accommodate people of all ideologies, social backgrounds, and point of view is now no more. Ever since the emergency, the party has seen several splits and leaders exiting the party for multiple reasons. No more damage has been caused to the party other than leaders of the Congress who left the party and started their own party. Starting from Shyama Prasad Mukherji who was a cabinet member in the Nehru cabinet, who then founded the Jana Sangh which today is the BJP, Sharad Pawar who exited and formed NCP, Chandrababu Naidu who took charge of TDP in Andhra, K Chandrashekhar Rao who floated TRS, Jaganmohan Reddy who started YSRCP, both of them together have clean swept the Congress in AP, same with Mamata Banerjee of TMC in Bengal, the list continues. 

In recent times, the party has also witnessed Hemanatha Bishwas Sharma who left for BJP has saffronised the entire North-East and Jyotiraditya Scindia who has demolished the Congress rule in MP by also taking 22 MLAs on his side is now a Central Minister. 

Amarinder Singh, once the strongman of the Congress, multiple times CM, who was removed for Sidhu to be the CM exited and started his own party. In the last month, he merged his party with the BJP. There is nothing more embarrassing to the party than this. The replaced CM, Channi lost the two seats he contested and most importantly, Congress star Siddhu is now in jail. The result is that Congress is wiped out and AAP is the major player. 

Gulab Nabi Azad, the tallest Congress leader from Jammu and Kashmir, who too from the valley, left the party lashing out at it. He also decided to float his own party. This was just days before Bharat Jodo Yatra commenced. Senior leaders in response said- Those who want to leave can leave. This is laughable, this is coming mainly from leaders who are established as if they don't know the consequence of Nabi's exit. His party can damage Congress prospectus in the valley, which was also quite dead for a very long time. Now Azad's party can split votes, which can be helpful for the BJP. 

The most disgusting incident happened for the party when 14 MLAs of the party in Goa who once went to Temple and took a pledge not to defect ended up defecting to the BJP. When the party is striving hard for Bharat Jodo, the result here is Party Chodo. The leaders then boasted- For every leader's exit, we get 25 leaders. This is false, the number of Congress leaders who have exited since 2014 is on the rise while the number of MLAs and MPs is on the decline. Also, more leaders joining the party is not and will help win elections. The number of states Congress ruling has come down over the past decade. There is no substantial claim of Congress benefiting anything from any leaders' exit. 

Presidential Election 

The television screens, news channels and newspapers were vibrant with pictures of the Bharat Jodo Yatra and how Congress is looking for a comeback. Then, news about Presidential Election started playing out with Shashi Tharoor coming on the scene and also an expectation of Ashok Gehlot also contesting it. It was great news for the party as it will see an election after a long period of time. That too is an expectation of a non-Gandhi head for the party. Gehlot was the favourite to win, which people have no dispute on. 

This news actually overshadowed all the good spotlight Bharat Jodo was giving to Congress. With the Drama in Rajasthan, Gehlot backing out and everything, Digvijay entered the fray as unofficially the official candidate. The very next day, Malligkharjuna Kharge comes into the picture as the candidate. All the dirty politics of the party was out in the open to see that nothing much has changed within the party. 

From then on conservative old guards, one by one came out in support of Malligkharjuna Kharge. Most of the senior leaders from Kerala barring K S Sabrinath, of them support Kharge. This is obvious as most Kerala Congress party leaders don't approve of Tharoor as an abled leader and there have been multiple rifts in the party on his controversial and contrasting views. Shashi Tharoor is one of the rare Congress leaders who are active in the parliament. The only reason he still continues in the party (according to me) is that he can win his constituency. 

If the election was about Kharge vs Tharoor, then what is the use of having an election in the first place because Kharge has more acceptance, he is status quo and he has the backing of the Gandhi family. Shashi Tharoor looks for a radical change in the party, which is better for parties like the Congress which is already tired of old-guard and status-quo policies. The election which was seen as once a genuine attempt has become an eyewash. All is the same within Congress. P Chidambaram has stated that whoever the President is, the leader of the party is Rahul Gandhi. Then why is there so much effort? Will the new leader be able to challenge Narendra Modi in 2014? Who will be the better PM- Kharge or Tharoor? 

The only plus is, irrespective of the winner, the President of the party will be from South India. 

Rajasthan 

Gehlot visits Rahul Gandhi in Kochi and affirms his candidature and in return, Sachin Pilot would be made the CM of Rajasthan. After the official party announcement, 92 out of 110 MLAs said they will resign if Sachin Pilot is made the CM. No other party on Earth would face this issue. Just imagine this happening with the BJP (and never will in foreseeable future), most parties follow the decision that is taken and if the subordinates are unhappy, the internal party forums are used for reconciliation and reconsideration of the decision. But open infighting and the threat of resigning is a very new concept in Indian Politics. This never happens in cadre-based parties. 

Sachin Pilot is the senior leader, he has been the Rajasthan PCC chief for a long time and has led the party to victory in 2018 after a devastating loss it faced in 2013. Then also, his name was in consideration for the CM post. Those who are resigning because Pilot will be the CM are the same people who won the election under his leadership. Such indiscipline in the party is causing its downfall, without proper course correction party cannot proceed. This is also the state which locked its MLAs as the party has no trust in them in resorts to stop defection. Sachin Pilot whether you like him or not is an important crowd puller of the party than most of the senior leaders who can't even win their MLA/MP seat. 

Gehlot later apologised on behalf of MLAs and declared his withdrawal. According to most experts, he was never serious about the Presidential contest and all the drama that took place was Gehlot's tactic of not giving up his CM post which he even agreed to. This party will see a tough time in the 2023 election. 

Bharat Jodo Yatra 

A massive Kanyakumari-Kashmir foot yatra was undertaken by the Congress party led by Rahul Gandhi. This movement has a lot of plusses and minuses which will be discussed. 



The big minus is the timing- When it's time for Himachal and Gujarat, two important states which have BJP govts, the party is busy down south with the yatra. The common argument they said was- this is not an election-winning yatra and elections will come and go. Both are ridiculous views. The party has lost two general elections and several state elections, and the party's existence is under question. 

If Bharat Jodo yatra is not for elections, then why is there so much campaigning and anti-BJP rhetoric, happening. There, it doesn't want to take responsibility for elections to two states that it has given up without a clear fight. Similarly, the route map of yatra has excluded important states. This means it wants to shield Rahul Gandhi from the responsibility of the loss of elections. The yatra is spending more time in strong Congress states like Kerala, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and MP while ignoring the rest. Even in Tamil Nadu, it has done only minimal effort. Another question is why is Rahul Gandhi doing the yatra who was earlier not interested in any position of the party? Shouldn't the new President instead be doing it? This is when Chidambaram's words make sense, whoever the President, Gandhis will hold the power, and thus election is a sham. 

Coming to the good things the energy of the party which was absent for a decade is suddenly back. Since the yatra went through Kerala and Karnataka we can't say much, we need to allow it to enter MP and beyond to see if Congress still holds strong. Both cadres of the party and the leaders are energised and are working for the party. The public has also accepted the rallies. Rahul Gandhi has seen a lot of transition in him and he is in the limelight. He is now the leader who has been on the field. He holds a rally in Bellary of celebrating 1000 km which is a great achievement. In Karnataka anti-incumbency of the BJP has boosted the party's prospectus which can be utilised by the yatra to enter victory. Also in BBMP polls, Congress can perform well. Congress also has taken an effort to build a national rally after a very long time and this can do wonders, but 2022 is quite early if the aim is 2024. 

Coming to the question of the status of the party, despite all the pomp of Yatra, Gulab Nabi Azad left, 14 MLAs of Goa left, Amarinder Singh has joined BJP, Pilot will not get what he has deserved, MLAs can threaten to resign and leave the party. No one wants to back Shashi Tharoor and bring in change. Gandhis still want to keep the power. Where is the party heading to? Why is there an election and yatra without any significant purpose or change? If the party cannot win Gujarat or get back Himachal and is waiting for Karnataka elections, only to see Siddharamiah fighting with D K Shivakumar. No one can save Congress. 

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Congress cannot wait for the magic to happen. Yatra is in the right direction but the Presidential election, if it was made properly would have benefited. The current election is extremely flawed and just an eyewash. Rajasthan drama is going to hurt the party so will the exit of senior leaders from the party. The only way in which Congress can come back to life is by following the steps in mentioned our previous article. Read here. 

Mistakes Made by Congress Party 

A strong Opposition is a key to Strong Democracy. 

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