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Analysis of Karnataka Elections 2023

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The result for the Karnataka Elections 2023 was declared on 13th May. Karnataka is the most important and sought-after state for election due to its size and economic strength in South India comprising the large metropolis of Bangalore. It is also the only South Indian state where BJP was able to come to power and still has a strong presence. Apart from that, Karnataka is the only South Indian state where the political fight is between the top two national parties BJP and the Congress. Most seats were tri-polar in nature with Janata Dal Secular as a strong regional player in many seats. JD(S) on the other hand has been trying to overcome their third-party restrictions while leveraging its position to be the kingmaker. 

Article of the Month- How BJP is set to benefit from the Kerala Story Film

Bangalore has been the cash cow for all parties in Karnataka including JD(S). Congress after successive losses across India, the only metro city which it does have a significant presence remains to be Bangalore. Similarly, BJP also has a significant committed vote share in the city and continues to dominate the city politicians. 

Check out our podcast episode on the Karnataka elections. 



The outcome of the election 

Most of the exit polls suggested a hung assembly with Congress being the single largest party. But the results suggest that Congress has secured a total majority. Only My Axis India-India Today was able to accurately predict a massive victory for Congress. Congress party has bounced back securing 135 seats in the 224 membered council, which can be understood as a clear sweep. The ruling BJP has lost significantly down from the 2018 tally and also the numbers they had in 2022. JD(S) has lost heavily and its tally is halved. It is after a very long time that a party has secured a sweeping majority in the state, as well as no party, has been successful in retaining the power after their initial term. 

Vote Share- Congress- 43.44%, BJP-36.27%, JDS-14.39%, Others-6.9%


Analysis 

It was a perform-or-fail election for Congress in this election. Hence, Congress from the beginning was giving its best. Starting Bharat Jodo Yatra, Congress has been focusing a lot on Karnataka since early 2022. Region-wise, Congress were able to sweep all regions barring Bangalore and Coastal areas. It managed to wrest Kittur Karnataka and Central Karnataka which were traditionally favourable to BJP and massive barge into the Old Mysore region, which is a stronghold of JD(S). In the Coastal region, BJP managed to win the region but with fewer seats. In the Bangalore region, it was tight with equal force, but BJP managed to get a slide edge here. JDS lost heavily in Bangalore City and Bangalore Rural. 

Overall, BJP has performed well in Urban areas while Congress has done very well in rural areas. In semi-urban, it's a tight race, advantageous to Congress. It also won a lot of bellwether seats which has helped it. A significant percentage of  JDS votes have shifted to Congress so have few BJP votes in northern areas. The anti-incumbency was more visible in rural areas than in urban areas. The extent of anti-incumbency was so much visible as only half of the sitting ministers were able to win and the rest half lost them. 


Important Wins and Loses

Almost all big guns have won the election from their respectively chosen seats, while big losses include Kumaraswamy's son Nikhil lost from Ramangara and BJP to INC turncoat and ex-CM Jagadish Shettar losing his seat of Hubli-Dharwad to Mahesh Thingkai by a massive margin. Laxman Savdi, BJP to INC turncoat on the flip-side won from his seat in Kummathahalli. BJP has held onto several seats in Bangalore with a big margin in several seats. BJP flipped the Jayanagar seat in an overnight surprise by defeating Sowmya Reddy, daughter of BTM MLA Ramalinga Reddy by 16 votes. D K Shivakumar won the Kanakpura with the largest margin with more than 1 lakh votes. 

What worked for Congress

Starting in October congress party started its preparation. The main strategy of Congress this time has been a hyper-local campaign from the very first. Congress has learnt this lesson from the Himachal elections. Avoiding national-level issues has benefited it. It also prevented a Rahul vs Modi connotation from forming in the state. The biggest campaign issue of the party was corruption under the state government. Ministers were directly said to have been involved in the same, Central schemes were not properly reaching people etc. The PayCM campaign and 40% Sarkar were very much working for them in setting the narrative. No doubt the large anti-incumbency vote got consolidated under Congress. 

Inflation, primarily the price of gas cylinders was key in rural areas. The party was able to communicate about it well and that's why it was swept in rural areas. Most importantly Congress has strong and charismatic leaders- D K Shivakumar and Siddaramiah who are given a free hand by the High Command. D K comes with resources, money, connections and cash. He is one of the very few trustable leaders of the high command perhaps only after Ahmed Patel to be a man on the ground. On the flip side, Siddaramiah's welfare policies in 2013-18 had massive resonance amongst the people. The President of the party Mallikharjuna Kharge comes from Kalburgi in Kalyana Karnataka and he has handled the situation on the ground, which has also helped the party. He was also successfully able to control and keep aside DV vs Siddu rivalry which could have hurt the party greatly. There was massive coordination and even ticket-distribution was beautifully done. 

Besides the promises of being women-friendly and youth-friendly, Congress got a lot of women's votes, votes from unemployed youth etc. Similarly, there was the drift of votes of Lingayats and Vokkaligas in favour of Congress followed by consolidation of a lot of minority votes in addition to AHINDA votes which the party always focuses on. People were ready to have Congress in the state and BJP at the centre. 

What failed for BJP

At first, BJP was failing a lot in terms of the campaign whereas, by the end, BJP was giving tight competition to Congress. Anti-incumbency was the biggest factor in the BJP's loss. The double engine narrative failed as the state government failed to deliver properly, even then the Bommai government's policies was never highlighted. Starting from the first BJP strategy was the nationalise the election which dramatically failed. 

The religious polarisation definitely worked but didn't consolidate any swing votes. Religious polarisation also failed to help BJP in regions other than the Coastal Belt. But undoubtedly people are also ready to move beyond the Tipu Sultan and Hijab issue. The removal of Yeddyurappa from CM position was also more than enough to create resentment against the government and state BJP. Bommai's government was underperforming with him being a very unpopular face. The exit of leaders from the BJP to INC created a dent in the Lingayat votebank. Similarly, Vokkaligas also didn't continue their support to BJP unlike estimated. 

Benefits to Congress 

It is the 4th state the party has successfully defeated BJP and come to power at present. Since 2014 this situation has been rare. Congress has been losing elections multiple times against BJP since 2013. This will be a big boost to them ahead of the 2024 National elections. The situation will also make Congress the main party in opposition that can take on BJP. This election will also give them some relief and hope for the upcoming semi-final elections in 2023- Chattisgarh, MP, Rajasthan, and Telangana. In the first three, it was Congress that won those states in 2018 and these states have a strong foothold for the party compared to other states. After the big loss in Gujarat, the party is set to bounce back as a strong challenger against BJP. Ahead of the National elections, Congress can milk the cow- Bangalore for the party funds and donations which is very important for any party. Lastly, Congress can get a good number of seats in Rajya Sabha that can prevent the BJP from controlling the upper house. 

Pitfalls to Congress

All is not good for the Congress. Karnataka is one rare exception. Also, in every election, the ruling party in Karnataka faces a lot of anti-incumbency and government changes, hence Congress will also face the same ire in 2028. Most of the polls and ground reportage indicate that even though people are voting for Congress this time, they are still ready to support Modi and BJP in 2024. People have understood to differentiate between state and national elections. Anti-incumbency against the state is not anti-incumbency against the centre. Hence the narrative that this election is a hit on the BJP style of politics is not fully correct. Modi is still very much popular in the state. In 2014 and 2019 as well, Modi has been able to get a big chunk of MPs in Lok Sabha. In the city of Bangalore, BJP continues to have a strong foothold which will benefit them in 2014. 

Besides that, it is highly doubtful how much can this victory help Congress in other regions and states. Basic problems of cadre, infighting, lack of face, narrative etc. have not been achieved. Congress had a narrative in Karnataka, which was based on corruption and inflation. Such a massive narrative is absent against BJP and Modi nationwide. In Jalandhar on the same day of the result, AAP wrested the Congress stronghold after 24 years. In UP Congress was abysmal in local elections. This shows Congress is in shambles across various states. 

Takeaways for BJP

BJP has lost a lot, its strategy of replacing MLAs, the Gujarat model and religious polarisation didn't work this time. Its caste coalition and social engineering are yet to see stronger stability. Although for it to work in 2024 is going to be easier. The only thing it has to do is to project Modi and throw mud on the Congress government. The party that loses the Karnataka election is set to do well in the centre, the very next year. Lastly, the BJP machine is very strong in Karnataka unlike (other South Indian states) many people believe it to be. People are also mature to think about state and national elections differently which benefits BJP. 

Lessons for JD(S)

For JD(S), it has been a do-or-die election as well. It scored its lowest tally ever. Without power, the party could crumble. It lost several seats in Mandya, Hassan and Bangalore rural. It has lost the Vokkaliga vote share to Congress. A party without ideology, with dynasty control and a lack of social engineering is not the best thing to happen and cannot survive in every situation. 

Conclusion 

This election has given strong lessons to all three parties- Congress that you are still alive, BJP that you are not invincible and to JDS, change yourselves or you are out. In the last term, people's mandates were clearly taken for granted by all the parties. The sense of stability and instability in the state has forced people to take a very decisive step and give a strong mandate to the set of people that it believes will govern them for the next five years without much interruption. Similarly, no doubt this election is a strong and decisive response to the double-engine narrative which is not acceptable in a country which emphasises cooperative federalism and federal values. Last but not least people are voting differently in different elections and are not just blinded by the party. The lesson for the parties is that if you are not invincible and people will vote you out if you will not perform.

Credits

CNBC- https://www.cnbctv18.com/politics/karnataka-election-results-2023-how-congress-bjp-and-jd-performed-region-wise-bengaluru-central-karnataka-coastal-karnataka-hyderabad-karnataka-mumbai-karnataka-southern-karnataka-16652401.htm

TOI- https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/karnataka/news/karnataka-election-results-2023-10-key-takeaways/articleshow/100208683.cms?from=mdr

NDTV- https://www.ndtv.com/elections

Special Credits- India Today, The Print and The Lallantop

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