What worked for Congress
Starting in October congress party started its preparation. The main strategy of Congress this time has been a hyper-local campaign from the very first. Congress has learnt this lesson from the Himachal elections. Avoiding national-level issues has benefited it. It also prevented a Rahul vs Modi connotation from forming in the state. The biggest campaign issue of the party was corruption under the state government. Ministers were directly said to have been involved in the same, Central schemes were not properly reaching people etc. The PayCM campaign and 40% Sarkar were very much working for them in setting the narrative. No doubt the large anti-incumbency vote got consolidated under Congress.
Inflation, primarily the price of gas cylinders was key in rural areas. The party was able to communicate about it well and that's why it was swept in rural areas. Most importantly Congress has strong and charismatic leaders- D K Shivakumar and Siddaramiah who are given a free hand by the High Command. D K comes with resources, money, connections and cash. He is one of the very few trustable leaders of the high command perhaps only after Ahmed Patel to be a man on the ground. On the flip side, Siddaramiah's welfare policies in 2013-18 had massive resonance amongst the people. The President of the party Mallikharjuna Kharge comes from Kalburgi in Kalyana Karnataka and he has handled the situation on the ground, which has also helped the party. He was also successfully able to control and keep aside DV vs Siddu rivalry which could have hurt the party greatly. There was massive coordination and even ticket-distribution was beautifully done.
Besides the promises of being women-friendly and youth-friendly, Congress got a lot of women's votes, votes from unemployed youth etc. Similarly, there was the drift of votes of Lingayats and Vokkaligas in favour of Congress followed by consolidation of a lot of minority votes in addition to AHINDA votes which the party always focuses on. People were ready to have Congress in the state and BJP at the centre.
What failed for BJP
At first, BJP was failing a lot in terms of the campaign whereas, by the end, BJP was giving tight competition to Congress. Anti-incumbency was the biggest factor in the BJP's loss. The double engine narrative failed as the state government failed to deliver properly, even then the Bommai government's policies was never highlighted. Starting from the first BJP strategy was the nationalise the election which dramatically failed.
The religious polarisation definitely worked but didn't consolidate any swing votes. Religious polarisation also failed to help BJP in regions other than the Coastal Belt. But undoubtedly people are also ready to move beyond the Tipu Sultan and Hijab issue. The removal of Yeddyurappa from CM position was also more than enough to create resentment against the government and state BJP. Bommai's government was underperforming with him being a very unpopular face. The exit of leaders from the BJP to INC created a dent in the Lingayat votebank. Similarly, Vokkaligas also didn't continue their support to BJP unlike estimated.
Benefits to Congress
It is the 4th state the party has successfully defeated BJP and come to power at present. Since 2014 this situation has been rare. Congress has been losing elections multiple times against BJP since 2013. This will be a big boost to them ahead of the 2024 National elections. The situation will also make Congress the main party in opposition that can take on BJP. This election will also give them some relief and hope for the upcoming semi-final elections in 2023- Chattisgarh, MP, Rajasthan, and Telangana. In the first three, it was Congress that won those states in 2018 and these states have a strong foothold for the party compared to other states. After the big loss in Gujarat, the party is set to bounce back as a strong challenger against BJP. Ahead of the National elections, Congress can milk the cow- Bangalore for the party funds and donations which is very important for any party. Lastly, Congress can get a good number of seats in Rajya Sabha that can prevent the BJP from controlling the upper house.
Pitfalls to Congress
All is not good for the Congress. Karnataka is one rare exception. Also, in every election, the ruling party in Karnataka faces a lot of anti-incumbency and government changes, hence Congress will also face the same ire in 2028. Most of the polls and ground reportage indicate that even though people are voting for Congress this time, they are still ready to support Modi and BJP in 2024. People have understood to differentiate between state and national elections. Anti-incumbency against the state is not anti-incumbency against the centre. Hence the narrative that this election is a hit on the BJP style of politics is not fully correct. Modi is still very much popular in the state. In 2014 and 2019 as well, Modi has been able to get a big chunk of MPs in Lok Sabha. In the city of Bangalore, BJP continues to have a strong foothold which will benefit them in 2014.
Besides that, it is highly doubtful how much can this victory help Congress in other regions and states. Basic problems of cadre, infighting, lack of face, narrative etc. have not been achieved. Congress had a narrative in Karnataka, which was based on corruption and inflation. Such a massive narrative is absent against BJP and Modi nationwide. In Jalandhar on the same day of the result, AAP wrested the Congress stronghold after 24 years. In UP Congress was abysmal in local elections. This shows Congress is in shambles across various states.
Takeaways for BJP
BJP has lost a lot, its strategy of replacing MLAs, the Gujarat model and religious polarisation didn't work this time. Its caste coalition and social engineering are yet to see stronger stability. Although for it to work in 2024 is going to be easier. The only thing it has to do is to project Modi and throw mud on the Congress government. The party that loses the Karnataka election is set to do well in the centre, the very next year. Lastly, the BJP machine is very strong in Karnataka unlike (other South Indian states) many people believe it to be. People are also mature to think about state and national elections differently which benefits BJP.
Lessons for JD(S)
For JD(S), it has been a do-or-die election as well. It scored its lowest tally ever. Without power, the party could crumble. It lost several seats in Mandya, Hassan and Bangalore rural. It has lost the Vokkaliga vote share to Congress. A party without ideology, with dynasty control and a lack of social engineering is not the best thing to happen and cannot survive in every situation.
Conclusion
This election has given strong lessons to all three parties- Congress that you are still alive, BJP that you are not invincible and to JDS, change yourselves or you are out. In the last term, people's mandates were clearly taken for granted by all the parties. The sense of stability and instability in the state has forced people to take a very decisive step and give a strong mandate to the set of people that it believes will govern them for the next five years without much interruption. Similarly, no doubt this election is a strong and decisive response to the double-engine narrative which is not acceptable in a country which emphasises cooperative federalism and federal values. Last but not least people are voting differently in different elections and are not just blinded by the party. The lesson for the parties is that if you are not invincible and people will vote you out if you will not perform.
Credits
CNBC- https://www.cnbctv18.com/politics/karnataka-election-results-2023-how-congress-bjp-and-jd-performed-region-wise-bengaluru-central-karnataka-coastal-karnataka-hyderabad-karnataka-mumbai-karnataka-southern-karnataka-16652401.htm
TOI- https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/karnataka/news/karnataka-election-results-2023-10-key-takeaways/articleshow/100208683.cms?from=mdr
NDTV- https://www.ndtv.com/elections
Special Credits- India Today, The Print and The Lallantop
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comments
Post a Comment