May 30 marks the first anniversary of NDA 2.0 govt or Modi govt as we call it. The past year has been eventful for the govt and for the citizens of India and looks like time flew quick. Maybe because we spent 2-3 months in our homes.
Here is a short review of the govt's hits and misses as I couldn't make a big analysis for this week, but I am delighted to write on this topic for various reasons. Let me also make it clear it that I am far too neutral that Modi supporters call me anti-Modi or anti-BJP and Modi haters call me pro-Modi or pro-BJP. I don't like name-giving stamps like Anti-Modi or Pro-Modi. if you want to call me anything please call me a political analyst and that is what I liked to be called by. It's obvious that we may or may not like certain decisions taken by our leaders and we should feel free to support or criticise for legitimate reasons and that's democracy.
With covid cases rising, and we have now reached 170,000 and the world's 9th most affected country. So it's obvious that lockdown itself didn't work as planned but again, without lockdown we would have matched US' tally by now. So lockdown stands as the best feather in Modi's cap whether or not it was a success or not. Anyway, BJP is successful enough to say it was a win-win game. Even News 18 did report that Modi has the highest approval rating in handling the pandemic amongst the world leaders.
Compared to the US, UK, Russia and Brazil, which we can call it as a right-wing disaster, India with a rightwing populist govt was far more successful than them. Now, with 2 months in lockdown Modiji, should not waste time thinking twice, and he should open up the economy and it was explained in detail last time. A lot of people are flouting isolation and quarantine rules, we know that our society doesn't follow rules much. But to say that, all these people are purposefully spreading the virus is quite immature.
Putting away covid-19 apart, Modi govt has fairly put the grip on the majority of the Indians. He is a good communicator and BJP IT cell is far superior to any PR organisation in the world. Modi now has the support of the Indian middle class whose arithmetic is strong enough to help him win any election. Whether you love him or hate him, he is invincible.
As usual, we can discuss the hits first.
Hits
Projecting himself as a strong leader where he sacrificed his family and is working for the nation, is indeed a plus point. He is like a saviour, he was able to show how doesn't spare traitors and terrorists. His policies aligned with the party policy of Hindutva and dominance of his vote bank over the others which really a piece of good news for his party and supporters.
The most productive sessions in parliament were seen during this year. Important bills like UAPA, RTI amendment, NMC bill, MV act etc got passed which is like BJP's dream to put hardliners or anti-nationals behind bars and isolate them. MV act was indeed a good move we can come into its miss later on. Another question often raised is why do people support RTI amendment, which dilutes the law, but just the fact that, who uses RTI the most, it is elite like us or what other call us as leftists and liberals who anyway don't support him and is a tiny droplet in the political arithmetic, so he need not even pay heed to their concerns. Again coming to UAPA, the popular opinion sides with BJP that anti-nationals, who raise voice against the govt should be called terrorists or "desh drohi". UAPA also will allow individuals to be deemed as terrorists and NIA to investigate in the states without the permission of state DGPs. This is indeed good news for Modi fans because they believe in the centralisation of power and Modi to be performing much better than the state governments. In the reply speech, Amit Shah said to the opposition that "Don't worry, don't do anything like this, you won't be charged by UAPA".
Next few bills are the ones which decimated opposition. You can already guess what these three bills are- JK organisation bill, CAA, TTT. The fake mask of liberalism and progressiveness wore by us for 3 decades just fell off. Liberals were exposed when they couldn't oppose it as such. Just look into the arguments against Art 370, none of the opposition wanted to bring Article 370 back or TTT back or even scrap CAA. Their demands were that you should have asked the people of J&K, the leaders shouldn't have put in jail, and not that article 370 removal was a jolt and all. Even during CAA they said, you should welcome everyone and not selectively which shows opposition is not against CAA. The opposition can't even say that they supported the TTT also. So, this is like a win-win situation too for the BJP.
Coming to foreign relations, Trump-Modi does share a great bond with each other. Other than the fact that Trump is an attention seeker and a pathetic liar everything is all well between India-US. He also said that Modi said to him to mediate between India and Pakistan, which is a lie and also that 10 million people will come to receive him in Ahmedabad. On republic day, we had the official visit of Brazilian PM Jair Bolsanaro as the chief guest. Two major events happened- Howdy Modi and Namaste Trump, both were grand had over 100,000 people gathered.
NDA was as expected also was stern on its critic countries like Malaysia, Turkey and Iran, blocking imports of palm oil from Malaysia. Pakistan was also isolated with its opinion and Govt was quick enough to retaliate after Pakistan reacted against Removal of the special status of Kashmir. The landmark Ayodhya Verdict also gave a big boost to BJP, as their dream is coming true.
Modi Govt seeks to march ahead with all these achievements, and fattening his vote bank, appeasing Hindu conservative votes and most importantly ending the opposition at the centre. Getting Rajya Sabha majority might be the next aim of NDA and also looking into NRC process.
Misses
The biggest miss itself is the big loss of it's the important state- Maharastra to MVA alliance. It went ahead to destroy its own long term ally, Shiv Sena. In Haryana, BJP lost its majority but was quick to stitch an alliance with JJP. BJP also lost the important state of Delhi at a big majority to AAP. Despite all odds, BJP was successful to wrest back MP and win by-polls in Karnataka, retaining the power away from Congress JDS alliance where 12 MLAs switched party.
Just because Modi has done, incredible in appeasing and keeping his vote bank, doesn't mean that he has done right in passing different bills. RTI is diluted by Govt deciding the salary and term of the Information officers. These officers can be cherry-picked by the govt itself and also putting pressure on them just like IAS, IPS and IFS officers. UAPA act violates the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by putting the Proof of Burden on the accused. The government can now deem anyone terrorist without even a trial. Right to Life and Right to Privacy is also being violated.
Strengthening MV Act is welcome, but the people were charged like truck drivers had to pay lakhs of rupees as fine even as they were found only to be driving without seat belts and license. The fine is kept high as to how it is being charged in developed nations where per capita income is high. You can't charge, how you charge in Singapore without giving safe driving facilities. Just see who all are caught violating the rules, not even a single VIP will be charged and in most cases, they are ready to pay the fine too.
CAA may be constitutional, but the intentions of Modi doesn't look so good in passing the bill. His party has always tried to portray Islam and Christianity as foreign religions and Hindu, Buddist, Sikh and Jains as default religions belonging to India. There is no actual idea of the govt, on how the refugees will be helped in getting jobs and everything. India has still not signed the 1951 Refugee convention and 1967 Protocol also India doesn't even consider everyone entering the country as refugees but does it on a case to case basis. TTT should be banned and the Supreme Court had deemed it illegal, that means you can't divorce a woman by telling these words. So, what are you punishing the man for? That too, 3 years imprisonment is too much, even sedition case has the same punishment. Considering TTT offence to be equal to Sedition is not all acceptable. The misuse of the law is quite possible.
The Gulf countries are going hard cracking down on Islamophobic tweets by Indians. The UAE government had notified the same, forcing India's ambassador and Modiji to tweet condemning it. Coming to JK Reorganisation Bill, how did the govt split a full fletched state, to two union territories. Is the govt taking advantage of the President's rule? Why was internet cut and not even restored till now? Isn't everything normal? Is the government hiding something? Why are a few leaders still under house arrest? Where is democracy in the state? All these are important questions which the govt must answer.
Economic recession is something which Modi govt was under a big fire, even the annual budget post-elections was quite disappointing. Now, with the pandemic, the situation is going worse but now the government can surely blame it on Sars-Cov-2. Rising petrol and diesel prices continue to burn a hole in common man's pocket.
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Challenges ahead!
We are in the big uncertainty, ie Covid-19 and when the pandemic will simmer down, when will a cure be found and when will we able to receive vaccines and obviously the most important economy, and jobs. The issue on India-China border in Pangong lake and Nepal's territorial dispute on Lipu lake and Kaalapani is indeed a great challenge and important test for S Jaishankar. Even the border dispute with Pakistan is still unsettled. The massive locust attack on farms in India has brought immense losses to the farmers. The elections in Kashmir are not yet held, no signs of recovery of the Indian economy. Everything will give NDA tough time and let's hope we will have a solution for everything.
Good analysis!
ReplyDeleteGood one.
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