It is time to look that the most political headline of this month in the tiny State of Kerala in India. It is quite ironical South India made the big electoral headline this month with Kerala elections and Hyderabad elections, which we can cover in detail later. At present we can dive deep into understanding and decoding the Local Body Election Results in Kerala which made the political title this week.
Since many of you all had asked me and I also found it interesting enough to learn more on it and present a detailed analysis.
Election season in Kerala was on the for the past two months and finally, it was over with the declaration of results on 16th December. Last time we had discussed in detail regarding the basics of Local elections in Kerala, its conduct, prominent issues and how to give in your vote. Read it here as a precursor to the article. I hope you have voted and that too wisely.
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| Credits- The New Indian Express |
You can read previous analysis articles by clicking on the analysis label.
The LSG elections were done for the following Institutions-
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Credits- Wikipedia
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The Six Municipal Corporations-
- Trivandrum
- Kollam
- Kochi
- Thrissur
- Kozhikode
- Kannur
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The 86 Municipalities-
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| Credits- Wikipedia |
Election results
Tally
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| Credits- India Today. (Not the final tally) |
Individual
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| Credits- Wikipedia |
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| Navigable map Credits- Onmanorama/Manormama Online |
Detailed Analysis
This was the most political local self-government (LSG) elections ever. Generally, LSG elections stand for local issues and local arithmetics. But breaking all kinds of the convention this time, Kerala has seen a massive political slugfest during this election, mixing national and state politics into this election.
At the same time, we see totally interesting and unique elections this time, because no one could ever predict the results as such. It will not be wrong if we say that this election has shaken all their fronts at the same time in different ways. Despite all three major fronts in Kerala claiming that each one of them would win big, we can see that only one front could claim such a big victory but the same time, even that front had a lot of sacrifices and we will be going into all the things in detail.
The Left Democratic Front (LDF), the ruling front in Kerala, got the maximum out of this election. It has gained more than 50% of all the local bodies. The United Democratic Front (UDF), the principal opposition in Kerala became distant second and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came in third just improving its tally. New fronts like Twenty Twenty have emerged stronger.
As said before, this election is considered to be the semifinal for 2021 assembly election race. The front which wins the most number of Grama Panchayats captures the Legislative Assembly and that has been the trendsetter for the past many years. So clearly we can see that these elections look to favour one side and we see that LDF poised to win more than 100 seats out of 140 with pure arithmetics. This is indeed a massive tally in the assembly. But given that the mood of state elections and local elections are different we can say that a big flip of more than 100 seats is not a possibility, but 80-90+ is possible for the winning front. We can also see the bipolar contest between UDF and LDF turning tripolar with BJP coming into the game in many seats.
The next four months will decide who will rule the state for the next five years.
Interesting contests, victors and flips
From last time, we can see the entrance BJP to Kerala politics which was once considered as a bipolar fight. It has barged in with a lot of noise, enough to create havoc. We are here to discuss how different places voted, some interesting contests, etc.
The most intensive and a full power tri-cornered fight was in Trivandrum Municipal Corporation which is the largest and the most important one. Since 2015, BJP has worked hard to make inroads and come in the second place. In 2020, it has further worked hard, as if it will capture the corporation finally. But it turns out as if it will. The ruling LDF, which had 43 out of 100 seats last time and ruled with a minority has received 52 seats this time, forming a considerable majority. It has also been successful in dampening the BJP wave as well as demolishing the UDF to a single digit. BJP despite hard work couldn't improve its tally and stuck with 35 seats. Mayor candidates of both BJP and CPIM lost and also the sitting mayor of CPIM Sreekumar also lost the race. UDF lost massively and looks like it is no more strong power. LDF has yet again confirmed that Trivandrum is their field.
In Kochi corporation, the second largest and the one which rules the majority of Kochi City has seen a flip from blue to red. After 10 years of UDF rule, LDF has yet again defeated and wrested power. Generally considered to be a UDF stronghold, anti-incumbency has hit hard. In addition to that BJP has secured 5 seats which is an improvement from last time's 2 seats. For the mayor seat, LDF will need the support of UDF rebel. V4Kochi was a strong apolitical contender in the city. UDF's mayor candidate and ex-GCDA Chairman G Venugopal lost by a mere one vote.
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| Credits- Mathrubhumi |
Thrissur corporation saw a narrow contest, where the tally of LDF and UDF just varies by 1. Currently, the ruling LDF has the upper hand and the support of independents may be required to cling on to power. BJP had made a massive try in scoring well, but its performance wasn't that great as expected. Its Mayor candidate Adv P Gopalakrishnan lost.
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| Credits- Urban Update |
Kannur which is a left bastion has voted for a UDF this time. In 2015, it had voted for LDF for a small margin but was taken over by UDF for the last two years. Kannur corporation voted for UDF when all the other corporations went Red.
In Mavelikkara Municipality, LDF, UDF and NDA were tied with 9 seats each. The lone independent will decide the fate of the institution.
Pandalam, which was the centre of Sabarimala protests and houses the Pandalam royal family who believes are the descendants of Lord Ayyapa's family went into the hands of Saffron Party BJP. It's a relief for them to see Sabarimala paying off at least somewhere.
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| Credits- Mathrubhumi |
In Todupuzha which is the centre of PJ Joseph saw a weak performance by the UDF.
Pala Municipality will see the rule of LDF for the first time since it had come into existence. It is the home turf of KM Mani's family and has always voted heavily for the UDF. In 2019, LDF had also defeated UDF in the Assembly election. Similarly, Changnassery municipality will also see the LDF rule.
Vaikkom Municipality considered to be an LDF bastion in Kottayam district saw a sudden surge of UDF and the municipality will be ruled by UDF this time.
Independents made the best of their ability in Thrikkakara Municipality while BJP was able to gain 12 seats from zero last time.
BJP has performed very well in Aluva getting 4 seats compared to one last time and also opened an account in Angamaly.
LDF has received a massive setback in Eranakulam district, where it has massively lost Muvattupuzha, Thrikkakara, Perumbavoor, Angamaly while it has triumphed in Kothamangalam and Koothattukulam Municipality where the Jacobite church has been strong.
BJP is the principal opposition in the Thripunithra Municipality.
Kodungaloor Municipality saw BJP coming in close with LDF and with only a single seat difference in tally. UDF could win only a single seat here.
Wadakanchery, the place where Life Mission project made a lot of controversies, saw LDF getting a confident majority.
Palakkad Municipality has gone into the hands of BJP, where it has retained its control for the second time.
LDF was also successful in winning the Nilambur Municipality which is considered to be a UDF stronghold
Vadakara municipality celebrated the massive victory of LDF. This is the place where KPCC president Mullapally Ramachandran and V Muralidharan where elected with a massive majority to the parliament.
Onchiyam, the home of V Chandrashekaran, the Late RMP leader, saw LDF victory and RMP backed UDF could get only 4 seats.
LDF won 28 out of 28 seats in Anthoor Municipality.
Kottayam District has seen the rise of LDF as a strong force.
Puthupally panchayat the residence of Oommen Chandy, former CM went in for LDF for the first time in 25 years.
Twenty-Twenty has won four grama panchayats, in and around Kizhakambalam which is its home turf.
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| Credits- Mathrubhumi |
Region-wise standing
Convention-
LDF has always had the upper hand in Travancore and Malabar regions which is North and South Kerala respectively. The Kochi belt which is Central Kerala has always been UDF's strong area. BJP has had safe havens in many places, especially where upper-caste Hindus are high in numbers like tiny parts of Trivandrum, Kochi, Alappuzha, Palakkad, Kasargod.
This time-
LDF has performed almost uniformly across all the three regions. UDF has been uprooted from Central Kerala except for Ernakulam district which houses Kochi city. In Pathanamthitta, Kottayam and Idukki, the entry of KCM Jose faction has helped LDF win the rural and urban wave. Alappuzha, Kollam and Trivandrum have undisputedly continued to be LDF strong bastions. In the North, UDF has only made some gains in Malappuram and Wayanad. LDF strongholds of Kannur, Kasargod and Kozhikode was not disturbed. BJP despite its constraints was able to make isolated gains throughout the state, especially in the urban areas like Trivandrum, Kochi, Palakkad, Thrissur etc.
Number game
Coming to the vote percentage and arithmetics. Everything looks one-sided and that's the speciality of Indian elections. It's a fact that numbers don't lie and they significantly indicate a big picture trend for us.
- LDF- 41.55%
- UDF- 37.14%
- NDA- 14.52%
- OTH- 7.79%
Last time (2015) there was only a difference of 1% but this time its 4% which is a significant verdict. Even this voting percentage of 4% was enough to make it a massive victory. BJP led NDA despite having a significant vote share isn't able to convert them into seats. BJP has made gains only because it is panchayat elections. The votes are failing to segregate. Given this present vote share, it is sure that LDF is going for a big win in the 2016 assembly elections.
A plain 2020 vs 2015 comparison
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| Credits- Wikipedia |
Analysis in detail
Irrespective of the political situation or any local trend we can see that this election was built on a confluence of all factors. Both the state as well as local issues were discussed. The government of the day tried to bank on the schemes and projects initiated by them while the UDF led Opposition raised the issue of Gold smuggling case and Life Mission. BJP raised the issues like Sabarimala, Modi govt's success, implementation of central projects in the state etc. Entities like Twenty Twenty, V4 Kochi, Janamunnetam, TVM focused on local issues.
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| Credits- Wikipedia |
What all factors favoured LDF?
We cannot dispute the real fact that when it comes to local elections, CPIM led LDF is the default political party of Kerala. Ever since the formation of the state, except for 2010, all local body elections were swept by LDF and we can thus understand its strength in the state. It has very well disciplined cadre and strong state leadership. LDF at present is also having a strongman as the CM, ie Pinarayi Vijayan. He has been portrayed as a strong and decisive leader. He has increased control over the government and various ministries. His grip on the party is more than ever. Whether good or bad, this time it looks like it has fallen its favour of the LDF while in 2019, it had really caused a great deal of damage.
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| Credits- Wikipedia |
CPIM, in particular, has had increased cadre support on the ground, especially through social groups, unions, students groups etc. This has really helped the propagation of Left or Socialist ideology amongst the society and it has helped them in elections.
When you see the electoral map of Kerala, you can see that LDF's share and the voting pattern is uniform throughout the state. Even in Central Kerala, LDF has made its penetration this time and it puts pressure on the opposition.
Coming to this election, we can see that LDF as a whole tried to pull the discussion using state issues which are in its favour like, fight against Covid-19, starting of Community kitchens, free ration, the health care sector, fight against the floods etc. They tried to portray itself as a hero who came to rescue the state. Along with these lot of populist ideas like free ration, life mission- House for all, KFON- Cheap optic fibre network for all, pension schemes, pro-poor schemes etc were the highlight. That may be another reason why LDF performed very well in the rural areas especially the panchayats. Along with that local issues in different areas like road, water etc also has gained attention. Coming to political issues, Gold smuggling and Life Mission Case were the two big guns opposition had against LDF. Given that no minister wasn't directly involved the government hit back saying that its a conspiracy by the Central govt which sends CBI and ED to destabilise and bring down the govt.
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| Credits- Onmanorama |
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| Credits- Life Mission website |
Against the UDF, the govt has brought the case of Palarivattom Flyover case and Manjeshwaram Cheating case, and also reponed the Vigilance case against the then opposition ministers. LDF has also made the UDF secret understanding with RW Muslim fundamentalist organisations like Welfare party as a hit on Kerala's secularism and trying to portray Congress and IUML as RW parties. It kept on iterating that UDF is speaking in the same language as BJP and both of them are conspiring to bring down the government.
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| Credits- Deshabhimani |
Electorally, the best thing that happened to LDF was getting KCM Jose K Mani's faction to the alliance. This has clearly helped it to dent the UDF in its stronghold districts of Idukki, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta. It is also clear that LDF has received a lot of Christain votes in the central region with the entry of Jose faction. Also, the Hindu conservative votes which it had lost in 2019 is back and we know it by the voting percentage. A lack of strong opposition and weak allegations has clearly helped people make a decisive choice.
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| Credits- the Hindustan times |
Compared to last time, LDF won 11 District panchayats, 4 more compared to last which indicates clear political mandate in its favour. Victory is more than 500 Grama panchayat in itself is a credible achievement. There has also been a significant increase in Block panchayats as well.
Despite all the enlisted gains, LDF does have a lot of bad news at hand. It has lost the majority in Thrissur corporation but still is the single largest party. Its mayor candidate and mayor lost the election in Trivandrum. It lost multiple municipalities in the Central Region as we had discussed before. Wayanad and Malappuram are still favouring UDF. Ernakulam has thrown out LDF in semi-urban and rural areas.
The government still might require an image makeover on various allegations ut it is facing and also needs a strong manifesto to have a decisive win in 2021. With KCM Jose demand for more space, other alliance partners like CPI and NCP are fighting to stop their growth as it can hurt their space.
What is that UDF has something to cheer for?
UDF can take a relief in Wayanad and Malappuram districts, which has always been the stronghold of Muslim League. While in Ernakulam district, Congress itself was able to put out a good show except for the Kochi corporation. It was still able to perform slightly better than it did in 2015, which now UDF is showing in limelight after its humiliating defeat. UDF was able to match LDF in its performance in the municipalities where it was 42-40 not (35-45).
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| Credits- Asianet News |
Where did UDF fail?
UDF has never fared in local elections except for 2010. But the point here is that, despite a lot of anti-incumbency, allegations against the govt, political opportunities, the Alliance has failed to bank on these and get things in its favour. It also needs to be understood that despite their claims of being a referendum of the state govt wasn't true and all their allegations have gone down the drain. Despite Oomen Chandy and Chennithala claiming that LSG election is all about local issues and personal fight, in district panchayat which is a political body has seen UDF's worst performance with only 3 out 14. Even they had no justification why they had brought and discussed political issues in a local election if it was all about the personal fight. UDF now clearly stands out like a fractured alliance.
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| Credits- The News Minute |
KCM Jose faction exit from the UDF was the biggest setback. KCM Joseph faction also lost the two leaf signature symbol it had. It was clear that Jose performed well than Joseph did. Much of old allies like Lok Tantrik Janatha Dal had also left the UDF weak. Congress is heavily dependent on the Muslim League in the Malabar which creates a roadblock for Congress' growth in the state. Alliance with Welfare party didn't seem to help the UDF alliance other than the Welfare party improving its tally. It was a point of debate within the party itself whether there was an informal alliance or not. RW Communal Parties SDPI is now challenging IUML dominance and is a real threat to UDF.
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| Credits- Manorama Online |
The rise of BJP
From 2015, BJP has been working extremely well to win in Kerala. Especially the 2018 Sabarimala issue was instrumental in shaping the BJP's electoral strategy for Kerala. Before that BJP only used to sell soft Hindutva and Modi's achievement. From then on BJP is selling Hard Hindutva, the Hindu pride, and the main face- Lord Ayyappa analogous to Lord Ram in UP. 2015 had given BJP a lot of stakes and the party has strived to work on that. K Surendran had to come out in Twitter and say that BJP won everywhere, where there is a temple.
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| Credits- Facebook page |
In 2010 it had zero municipalities, single-digit gram panchayats and very few at wards. In 2020, it has two significant municipalities- One a prominent district capital and another the centre of Sabarimala issue- Palakkad and Pandalam respectively. It has reached to be the single largest party and the principal opposition in many panchayats, and municipalities as well. In Trivandrum Corporation, BJP even had winning chances and its just 15 seats away from the majority mark. In 2025, it might be clear that BJP will try to win it. BJP has made good gains in North Kerala like Kasargod and in certain places like Cherthala, Alappuzha, and Pathanamthitta.
Whenever an election comes anywhere in India, if BJP is determined to give a shot, it will make the biggest noise possible to make people feel that it is a strong contender. That was significantly here this time. In many places, BJP gave a three-corner fight. The opening of the account in various bodies has helped BJP expand its base. Even though these are isolated it is significant enough.
Was the BJP's noise a hype?
If you ask if BJP was able to make a dent as it expected though hype. We can say it wasn't according to its own claims. Many of BJP's strong leaders like Adv Gopalakrishnan lost. So a lot of it was noise and BJP wasn't able to convert the political climate to votes. LDF was able to attack BJP calling out how central agencies were misusing them.
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| Credits- One India |
There was a lot of infighting and factionalism in the Kerala BJP which didn't allow BJP to work as a single unit. Latest shuffles in the party had failed to garner attractiveness to the leadership and lack of visionaries have led to its underperformance.
Use of Lord Ayyapa and Sabarimala issue hasn't been able to convince everyone and questions on the party's secularism is still on. Although a lot of Hindu upper caste votes got polled successfully in its favour in the urban pockets. BJP wasn't able to use 5000 RSS shakhas it has and the required vote share to convert it into more seats. BJP has failed to get into the minds of minorities as well.
The rise of apolitical forces
Twenty-Twenty being the primary apolitical organisation swept several panchayats in and around Kizhakkamabalam. It has made a significant presence in Kunnathunad region which also has a block panchayath and also an assembly segment. It is no doubt that it can contest and win the Kunnathunad seat and win it in 2021 assembly elections, making it the first apolitical organisation to reach Kerala LA.
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| Credits- FB page |
Its main selling point was the Kizhakambalam model, which has extremely good rural roads, low-cost broadband, low-cost margin free supermarket, CCTV monitored streets etc.
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| Credits- facebook |
Copying it, several other political organisations have also propped up like V4Kochi, TVM, Janamunnetam, etc. which are mainly rivalling the UDF-LDF duo and can shift Kerala's political landscape in the next few years.
The rise of Independent candidates and winners puts our faith back in a democracy that, it still thrives and we individuals still have the power in deciding what we want.
Political stakes of this election
Even this is an LSG election, a lot of the factors were local, but it also has a political angle which cannot be ruled out. LDF looks on to ride on this red wave and wins the assembly elections which is set to come within five months. If this works, this might be the first government to get a second term in three decades. UDF despite its loss, they are far away from believing that they can topple this government and win the 2021 elections. It needs a big makeover for the same. BJP expects to win at least seats, but at a present level, it can only succeed in 2-3 maximum. It needs to work more both at ground level and also at the state level like bringing visionaries and strong face.
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| Credits- Wikipedia |
Conclusion
This pandemic, elections have cheered many of us a lot. Despite the health concerns and spread, hopefully, the elections are an indication that life is turning out to be normal.
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| Credits- Onamanorama |
LDF has taken it big, eroding UDF fortresses and also winning across demographics. UDF despite improving the numbers in some places, it has nothing much to cheer for and has to improve a lot by learning from the lessons of this loss. BJP led NDA needs to get consolidated votes and not just a mere single isolated votes. Winning of independents and apolitical organisations rival the traditional political thoughts, ideology and the system itself. We hope that whoever got elected this time will fulfil the promises they made irrespective of the politics and demographic conditions at hand.
Reach out in comments! for your opinions. Tell who won from your area.
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